The_Global_Warmer Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The NAM is always having a good time at this range. who want's to bed the lop-sided Nam breast of death do not verify so nicely. It get's better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 6z GFS doesn't even have the low getting below 1000 mb, alot broader than what was being shown by models initially. Still out beyond 100 hours so alot could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 2.24.2007 showing up on the CIPS analog guidance. Actually, fairly decent match with our storm. 2.24.2007 had a weakening trend as it move east/north as well. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=GP&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=2007022418 (btw, have I mentioned that I love the CIPS Analog Guidance site?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 2.24.2007 showing up on the CIPS analog guidance. Actually, fairly decent match with our storm. 2.24.2007 had a weakening trend as it move east/north as well. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=GP&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=2007022418 (btw, have I mentioned that I love the CIPS Analog Guidance site?) Jackson MS mentioned this storm as an analog for severe as well which I went and looked at it closely, it is a pretty comparable storm. Interestingly enough as it is modeled the storm for 9-10 days out looks a lot like the March 1st, 2007 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Looking more like a plains special....big hit for NE/SD/parts of IA... be interesting how this progresses over the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 DGEX for the win. At least this won't be another Historic East Coast Snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Definitely too early to give up on this one but models continue to trend drier in the east. A couple more days of this and it will be back to fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 On the plus side a later winter blizzard over the plains is perfect with severe season right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 DGEX for the win. At least this won't be another Historic East Coast Snowstorm. 1" of snow. Yes! A couple more days of this and it will be back to fantasy land. Plenty of candidates in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 12z GFS appears wetter at 93hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 BOL to: STL crowd, Cyclone, Hawkeye. Might blow its load too early but I think 6"+ is almost a lock. Hopefully STL avoids p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 12z GFS coming in a bit farther south, but a bit weaker with the SLP. Gonna be good through MO...but not sure how much will be left after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 1" of snow. Yes! Plenty of candidates in fantasy land. yep, looks active...plenty of time with this one but my eyes are starting to wander 12z GFS appears wetter at 93hrs. not really...low is weaker as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 BOL to: STL crowd, Cyclone, Hawkeye. Might blow its load too early but I think 6"+ is almost a lock. Hopefully STL avoids p-type issues. It would be something if both Toronto and St. Louis break their 6"+ storm futility record in the same season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 South, much weaker SLP. But strangely a touch wetter here. Of course, hard not to improve on the 0.15" that the 0z run had for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 You know the amazing thing, this at one point was snowing nearly 12" here, now I am just hoping to eek out a couple inches. I guess water eventually finds level and DTW has been pretty much one of the few jackpots this winter for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It would be something if both Toronto and St. Louis break their 6"+ storm futility record in the same season. what is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Overall drying trend continues. Chances of topping the 3.7" seasonal high looking less like a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Overall drying trend continues. Chances of topping the 1.8" seasonal high looking less like a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Overall drying trend continues. Chances of topping the 1.8" seasonal high looking less like a slam dunk. what looked so promising just 2 days ago now gets worse by each run!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It would be something if both Toronto and St. Louis break their 6"+ storm futility record in the same season. STL had 9.6" with the Jan 19-20, 2011 storm. Doubt they're fighting "futility". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Man, that ridge out ahead of this system is really crushing it. By the time the low gets to Iowa there's nothing left. The 12z GFS is down to only a few inches of snow here with that main wave of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 STL had 9.6" with the Jan 19-20, 2011 storm. Doubt they're fighting "futility". Before Feb 8th of this year, Pearson had a 6"er on Jan 8, 2011, which isn't a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Storm blows its load early. Really, that's been on the models for awhile...but they're now realizing the precipitation reduction for east of the Mississippi river. Which I guess, makes sense the closer we get to go time. In other words, they should get a better handle on the specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Lee cyclogenesis at 153 on the GFS. Maybe we can make amends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 All in favor of not starting a thread on a potential system 9 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Before Feb 8th of this year, Pearson had a 6"er on Jan 8, 2011, which isn't a record. As my sig says, I haven't seen an all snow event of 6"+ since 2008. Lots of events just under that magic total, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 As my sig says, I haven't seen an all snow event of 6"+ since 2008. Lots of events just under that magic total, but still. Yeah, that's rough. Rougher than what I had been going through although relative to your climo I'm guessing stretches like these, will unusual and unpleasant, aren't unheard of? btw...I was expecting something about the Cubs in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yeah, that's rough. Rougher than what I had been going through although relative to your climo I'm guessing stretches like these, will unusual and unpleasant, aren't unheard of? btw...I was expecting something about the Cubs in there too. I can't really complain though. 2010-11 was a top 5 snowiest season on record here...and 2009-10 was good too. Just, haven't been able to reach beyond that single event all snow total of 6"+...sleet tainted GHD be damned. Climo for LAF is around one 6"+ storm every other year/one every three years. Cubs...yeah, well that's a lifetime futility thing. Biggest lock ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Looks real good for those well to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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