Hoosier Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Can't say I'm a fan of this solution. 60 hour total QPF through 12z Saturday. If there's any good news, maybe it's that we've reached the bottom. Hard to imagine a more dull run than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 If there's any good news, maybe it's that we've reached the bottom. Hard to imagine a more dull run than this. Good point. I guess the only thing worse is zero precipitation for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Looks like there might be a brief period of ZR for me according to the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Even with changes from run to run, 4 GFS runs in a row of 5-8" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Even with changes from run to run, 4 GFS runs in a row of 5-8" here. Gonna be pretty weird getting all this snow with the surface low passing northwest of us lol. Southeast winds and heavy snow falling is gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Looks like there might be a brief period of ZR for me according to the 0z run. Freezing rain is the least of your concerns. Not gonna happen to anything of consequence for CID. It's snow and then dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 So any thoughts as to why these OP runs are generally north, but the ensemble means are not only south, but significantly so? I know that's typical when talking about an intense low given the uncertainty and some really suppressed solutions that occasionally exist, but we're talking about hundreds of miles difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z crazy UnKle. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z GGEM. Can't even bring myself to post the images. Low positions below... 114 hours: 996mb in south central KS. 120 hours: 1000mb a tick south of Kansas City. 132 hours: 1007mb smack dab in the middle of IL. Yeah, you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z GEM still staying south and keeping an easterly movement the whole time across central IL allowing the snow band to move east with it to the north across central IA to northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z GEM still staying south and keeping an easterly movement the whole time across central IL allowing the snow band to move east with it to the north across central IA to northern IL. GEM has been fairly consistent with this idea te las few runs, has it not? I mean, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Considering what the Euro, GFS, UK show...I'd probably ignore the Canadian's storm track. But that's just me. It does have a real nice snowstorm for Chicago at the end of its 0z run though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Even though it IS the GEM i think that it's solution would have the best shot of any. Not because of my backyard but because of the pattern and thus what is ahead of it etc. I can see this system ending up further south then what even the GEM shows. My hunch is we end up with what the models showed a little ways back and thus a bowling ball tracking east somewhere between I70 and the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Even though it IS the GEM i think that it's solution would have the best shot of any. Not because of my backyard but because of the pattern and thus what is ahead of it etc. I can see this system ending up further south then what even the GEM shows. My hunch is we end up with what the models showed a little ways back and thus a bowling ball tracking east somewhere between I70 and the river. Gotta think there is a shot models come back to that given they should that happening for days but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Even though it IS the GEM i think that it's solution would have the best shot of any. Not because of my backyard but because of the pattern and thus what is ahead of it etc. I can see this system ending up further south then what even the GEM shows. My hunch is we end up with what the models showed a little ways back and thus a bowling ball tracking east somewhere between I70 and the river. Problem I have with the GGEM solution is there is no high pressure centered to the NW, to keep pushing it along east. The high in this case, is to the N/NE...thus the turn to the path of least resistance on all the other models. Taking a look at all of the other bigger MW/OV snowstorms of the past (east of the Mississippi), the NW (northern Plains) high is key. Anyway, that's just my two cents. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Even though it IS the GEM i think that it's solution would have the best shot of any. Not because of my backyard but because of the pattern and thus what is ahead of it etc. I can see this system ending up further south then what even the GEM shows. My hunch is we end up with what the models showed a little ways back and thus a bowling ball tracking east somewhere between I70 and the river. Well I guess until the early week system moves in and advances its way to the east/northeast, the window is there for some decent shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Rough GGEM numbers: Des Moines: 1.15" CR: 0.8" ORD: 0.53" MKE: 0.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Euro much weaker and still taking it into central IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 00z Euro is hot garbage. More cuts in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Should I make some very early calls, or is no one buying into the recent Euro runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Should I make some very early calls, or is no one buying into the recent Euro runs? Please don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 How much does the euro give st Louis? And what form? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Problem I have with the GGEM solution is there is no high pressure centered to the NW, to keep pushing it along east. The high in this case, is to the N/NE...thus the turn to the path of least resistance on all the other models. Taking a look at all of the other bigger MW/OV snowstorms of the past (east of the Mississippi), the NW (northern Plains) high is key. Anyway, that's just my two cents. We shall see... I agree about the high. Thing is do the models have that correct? As you can see the high is to the north and or north of MN BUT how can it move east with what is ahead of it? There is really no opening for this storm to come north. Another missing key element is the se ridge which one usually sees ahead of systems that cut towards WI/MN etc. ,Ofcourse that is all assuming the models have system 1 correct etc. So yeah it can all still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Should I make some very early calls, or is no one buying into the recent Euro runs? Too early. This is very early Sunday and this system comes in Thursday. Good points Harry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Lol this storm trolling this region hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Lol this storm trolling this region hard. It sure is, it's hard to have the confidence that this thing won't whittle away the precip to nothing. Heck, even the epic amounts being shown for Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines, etc. are way down on this Euro run, comparatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 A day or two ago it was looking like this would be a great spread the wealth/high impact event for much of the region. Recent trends are reducing confidence in such a widespread scenario. It was looking like this was gonna be one of those high impact events the models lock onto early on and maintain relative continuity through the event, but the last 24-36hrs has derailed that line of thinking. Still early, but my confidence in this thing being anything other than just a run of the mill winter system is quickly crapping out. Was really hoping this would end up being something special, but it looks like it's stating to **** the bed in a way. Wouldn't take much for this thing to be the storm of the season for here, but really was hoping we could all share a big storm together for a change. Oh well, it's gonna do whatever it's gonna do, no matter how many times we peck out our grievances on the ol' 'puters. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Lol this storm trolling this region hard. Maybe it was alek's plan all along... Act optimistic for once so everyone's like "well if he's on board, so am I".... Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Maybe it was alek's plan all along... Act optimistic for once so everyone's like "well if he's on board, so am I".... Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2 I see your conspiracy theory as being a respectable option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The problem I have with Gem and the reason it probably won't verify is not so much what is going on at the surface, but rather at H5: GFS 120: Gem 120: GFS 132: Gem 132: I believe the GEM is trying to choke of the omega block to quickly, thus driving the surface low on the more southerly track. Time will tell if this verifies or not, but I would be surprised if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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