Natester Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This reminds me of February 2008 when we got TONS of snow. I have a feeling that we will be drought free by spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Some interesting observations today with regards to the progged thermodynamic environment as well as precip and QPF amounts being spit out by the globals. This mainly pertains to folks west and south of a ORD-LAF line (and especially near and west of the MS River). There has been great consistency in forecasting a strong LLJ with plenty of moisture transport over the cold dome. Of particular note is the strength of the elevated warm nose on model soundings/profiles. For some time now, the GFS and EC have been sporadically spitting out some precip from the convective parameterization scheme (this appears "splotchy" on QPF maps). This behavior really amplified today and caused a substantial increase in the precip of the forward flank of the storm. This is primarily due to an elevated conditionally unstable layer in the soundings. There's also a wide region of deep moist neutral profiles and theta-e folding on BUFKIT soundings, which suggest that there should be some fairly widespread convective enhancement. With the primary warm front so far south, this strong warm nose will be pretty far aloft for a good chunk of the event and may lead to rapid changes in p-type based on precip rates. This can also lead to significant QPF underestimates in favored banding areas or where convection is present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Some interesting observations today with regards to the progged thermodynamic environment as well as precip and QPF amounts being spit out by the globals. This mainly pertains to folks west and south of a ORD-LAF line (and especially near and west of the MS River). There has been great consistency in forecasting a strong LLJ with plenty of moisture transport over the cold dome. Of particular note is the strength of the elevated warm nose on model soundings/profiles. For some time now, the GFS and EC have been sporadically spitting out some precip from the convective parameterization scheme (this appears "splotchy" on QPF maps). This behavior really amplified today and caused a substantial increase in the precip of the forward flank of the storm. This is primarily due to an elevated conditionally unstable layer in the soundings. There's also a wide region of deep moist neutral profiles and theta-e folding on BUFKIT soundings, which suggest that there should be some fairly widespread convective enhancement. With the primary warm front so far south, this strong warm nose will be pretty far aloft for a good chunk of the event and may lead to rapid changes in p-type based on precip rates. This can also lead to significant QPF underestimates in favored banding areas or where convection is present. You gotta post here more often man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Some interesting observations today with regards to the progged thermodynamic environment as well as precip and QPF amounts being spit out by the globals. This mainly pertains to folks west and south of a ORD-LAF line (and especially near and west of the MS River). There has been great consistency in forecasting a strong LLJ with plenty of moisture transport over the cold dome. Of particular note is the strength of the elevated warm nose on model soundings/profiles. For some time now, the GFS and EC have been sporadically spitting out some precip from the convective parameterization scheme (this appears "splotchy" on QPF maps). This behavior really amplified today and caused a substantial increase in the precip of the forward flank of the storm. This is primarily due to an elevated conditionally unstable layer in the soundings. There's also a wide region of deep moist neutral profiles and theta-e folding on BUFKIT soundings, which suggest that there should be some fairly widespread convective enhancement. With the primary warm front so far south, this strong warm nose will be pretty far aloft for a good chunk of the event and may lead to rapid changes in p-type based on precip rates. This can also lead to significant QPF underestimates in favored banding areas or where convection is present. You gotta post here more often man Agreed. I don't post much but I love the read. I remember getting a great schooling through Csnsvy on the Litchfield spring '11 trip and touchdown. Kudos to all here though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 As it has been for several runs, my primary concern is moisture. Precipitation type looks to be primarily snow, but a primarily virga storm would not be fun (though that's probably overstating the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 You gotta post here more often man Yeah, dude is clutch. Unfortunately we haven't had many events worth posting about but he's pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yeah, dude is clutch. Unfortunately we haven't had many events worth posting about but he's pretty consistent. Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 As it has been for several runs, my primary concern is moisture. Precipitation type looks to be primarily snow, but a primarily virga storm would not be fun (though that's probably overstating the situation. why are you worried about moisture. no this doesn't look to be the porn storm of earlier but the initial slug of moisture shouldn't be lacking for a nice 6 hr or so thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Stormy Weather...One Storm Down and One to Go? http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/02/stormy-weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z GFS coming in a bit farther north out west at 96 hours, compared to the 12z run. 994mb, 994mb though. Spot on at 102 and 105 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Low comes out near the OK panhandle on this run. 102 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 NE is getting slaughtered through 114 hours. N MO too, with something wintry. Low looks NW of the 12z run at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Weakening/occluding at 120 hours. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Weakening/occluding at 120 hours. Blah. Isn't that a bit later than some of the other recent runs? Probably still bad for those east of Lake Michigan's longitude, but as long as the trend is in favor of a slightly later occlusion, many of us still have hope of a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It looks wetter this far east than the last run. Low ends up south of Des Moines at 129hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Isn't that a bit later than some of the other recent runs? Probably still bad for those east of Lake Michigan's longitude, but as long as the trend is in favor of a slightly later occlusion, many of us still have hope of a decent storm. Quicker actually. It's reduced QPF for places like MKE, ORD compared to its 12z run. LAF doesn't get to 0.25"...total. Faster occlusion, less precip. You don't want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It looks wetter this far east than the last run. Low ends up south of Des Moines at 129hr. Not really. 0z GFS thru 9z 2/22. 12z GFS thru 9z 2/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Quicker actually. It's reduced QPF for places like MKE, ORD compared to its 12z run. LAF doesn't get to 0.25"...total. Faster occlusion, less precip. You don't want that. Clearly so, what I noticed is it slowed down in getting precip in here. The actual timing of the occlusion was probably about the same, but given the slowing trend from the 12z that hardly mattered and the actual location of occlusion was further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The Nebraska storm Wagons west. To a different sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Not really. 0z GFS thru 9z 2/22. 2:17 0z GFS 24 thru 129.gif 12z GFS thru 9z 2/22 2:16 12z GFS 24 thru 141.gif Must have been another run I was thinking of then. Snowfall map. Would like to see the low trend over closer to Cycloneville - that way the heavier snow out ahead gets further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Clearly so, what I noticed is it slowed down in getting precip in here. The actual timing of the occlusion was probably about the same, but given the slowing trend from the 12z that hardly mattered and the actual location of occlusion was further west. Gotcha. I misread your previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Still impressed by the size of the swath of snow being pumped out consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Looks like quick WAA snow followed by drizzle for most of MI. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Always interesting to watch the models at this range, considering the big changes that are possible. 0z GFS has the low just south of MSP at 18z Friday. The 12z run had it over ORD at the same time. Same strength though, so bonus points there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Always interesting to watch the models at this range, considering the big changes that are possible. 0z GFS has the low just south of MSP at 18z Friday. The 12z run had it over ORD at the same time. Same strength though, so bonus points there. Was gone most of the day, so I actually just noticed that difference. Lot of wobbling going on. Would be great to see a 0z solution from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Two runs, only one full cycle apart. 12z run for 12z Saturday 0z run for 12z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 I give up on this one in terms of significant snow here. Good luck to everyone in IA/WI/IL/IN/MO. But I do like the look of that "bonus" shortwave from 156hr to 162hr. If this system can wrap back to the west just a little more, there would be room for that southern vort at 156hr to amplify for us in the Eastern Lakes/Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Can't say I'm a fan of this solution. 60 hour total QPF through 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I give up on this one in terms of significant snow here. Good luck to everyone in IA/WI/IL/IN/MO. But I do like the look of that "bonus" shortwave from 156hr to 162hr. If this system can wrap back to the west just a little more, there would be room for that southern vort at 156hr to amplify for us in the Eastern Lakes/Ohio Valley. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Hopefully we can reverse trends and get the original idea of a slower evolving/bowling ball type event to dump on much of the region. This quicker and quicker occluding crap trend needs to stop and reverse course now lol. Still a long ways out in time so plenty of time for some big changes. Hopefully they'll be good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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