Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Significant snow has been here or close by on many runs of many models. I understand the pessimism though. It could still happen, I guess. Just don't feel it (sig snow), which is kinda My concern remains getting "good enough" moisture/precipitation in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It could still happen, I guess. Just don't feel it (sig snow), which is kinda My concern remains getting "good enough" moisture/precipitation in here. I am not to worried about that since we are still several days away from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Never bet against Madison, WI... My call for highest amts will be on top of Turtle's Mustang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 How right you are DLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro has roughly 6" along and north of 88 in northern IL. 12" in eastern NE, OAX, western/northwest IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro has roughly 6" along and north of 88 in northern IL. 12" in eastern NE, OAX, western/northwest IA. It's one of the odder setups so it's hard to for me to get a gut feeling but i'm staying optimistic and hoping for some favorable trends over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Never bet against Madison, WI... My call for highest amts will be on top of Turtle's Mustang This. It's been jackpot for them all winter, see no reason to change now. Not gonna throw out amounts but one thing that has been very consistent is that there's enough cold air on the front end to cause problems. As csnavy mentioned, temps might go above freezing but maybe not until the tail end. Speaking of throwing out amounts, I meant to post this this morning. Patrick Murphy, veteran IWX met, highly educated, extremely analytical, and a : A STALLED DEEP SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WITHER ON VINE ACRS NRN IN/SRNLWR MI...AT LEAST THROUGH HERO FCSTR EYES. LARGE STANDARD DEVIATIONSPREAD PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ACCUMULATIONS. SAN COMPACTION WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN NEAR 14/1 RATIOS USED AFFORDED RANGES GNRLYWITHIN 3-7 INCH RANGE...FWIW AT F144-180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 If the EURO verifies, would the precip still be mostly snow in Iowa? I'm afraid that I might get some ice from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 **** this storm completely! This is about as uninspiring at it could get form APX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INGENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THESOUTHWESTERN STATES WHILE SHEARING OUT AND STALLING ACROSS THE REGIONBRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS.HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER20S SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 La Crosse in their just released AFD: THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND RUN-TO-RUN SIMILARITIES REMAIN VERY ABOVEAVERAGE AND REMARKABLE FOR IT STILL BEING 6 DAYS OUT. GIVEN THEFEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE DATA SPARSE NORTHERN PACIFIC...THERECERTAINLY WILL BE FINE-TUNE DETAILS TO ESTABLISH. PRECIPITATIONAMOUNTS TOOK A STEP UP IN THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE THOUGH STILLREMAIN BETWEEN 0.7 TO 1.0 INCH. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN AWARNING LEVEL EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD 6 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS IF THECURRENT AND PAST SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. THE BIG PICTURE IS THATTHOSE WITH INTERESTS AND TRAVEL CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULDCONTINUE TO MONITOR AND FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH HIGHERPRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TRENDED FRIDAY HIGHER ASWELL SINCE IF THE SYSTEM DOES SLOW DOWN / FILL IN THEN THERE WOULDCERTAINLY BE LINGERING DEFORMATION BANDING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THEAREA. THE PROLONGED DURATION / THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAYNIGHT / COULD PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES FOR TRAVELERS AND ROAD CREWSAS WELL.[/quote] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 **** this storm completely! This is about as uninspiring at it could get form APX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WHILE SHEARING OUT AND STALLING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. Sleeper pick for meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Head to head, 12z op Euro and Euro ensemble mean at 120 and 144 hours. 12z Euro at 120 hours 12z Euro ensemble mean at 120 hours 12z Euro at 144 hours 12z Euro ensemble mean at 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 That can't be the 12 Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Dews in the 30's currently acoss much of northern GOM. I hope the Feb. 18/19 storm can correct that and prime the pump for our anticipated scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 From IND AFD AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THE PRECIPTYPE QUESTION BECOMES THE CHALLENGE. WITH COLD AIR ENTRENCHED AT THESURFACE IN THE WAKE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTIONALOFT CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM THURSDAYAFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT TRYING TOPIN DOWN ICE PROBABILITIES IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY AS MODELTRACKS OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL VARIABLE. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TOBROAD BRUSH INCREASING CHANCES FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN THEFORECAST WHILE HIGHLIGHTING THE ICE POTENTIAL HERE AS WELL AS IN THEHWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18z GFS going to be drier for people further north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Congrats to the plains. That I am sure of. Nice nice storm for them. And they certainly need the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18z GFS going to be drier for people further north and east. The high pressure's and dry air around it is shredding this storm apart before it could reach the Lakes area, sadly. But its still over a 100 hours out, hopefully it changes. Really quite potent storm with alot of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 That can't be the 12 Euro. What do you want it to be? I'll give you the pressure looks "off", but the location is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The high pressure's and dry air around it is shredding this storm apart before it could reach the Lakes area, sadly. But its still over a 100 hours out, hopefully it changes. Really quite potent storm with alot of moisture. Nothing to do with that. It has everything to do with this sucker occluding (maturing) over Kansas and the resulting potential energy from thermal gradients being played out by the time it gets that far east because the storm will be well into the decaying stage by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18z GFS going to be drier for people further north and east. Down here, verbatim, precip gets shredded before crossing the IL/IN border. That would be pretty crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I dont think any of the 18z runs have been kind to my area. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nothing to do with that. It has everything to do with this sucker occluding (maturing) over Kansas and the resulting potential energy from thermal gradients being played out by the time it gets that far east because the storm will be well into the decaying stage by then. Oh, i didnt take a look at any other map besides the MSLP maps but thanks! There is certainly alot of cold air in place across the Lakes regions so it'd be quite fantastic if it stayed in one piece instead of decaying and shredding the further East it moves. Reminds me of a storm last winter, i believe. Between hours 110 and about 126 the vort maps show quite the tightly compacted energy but like you said it gets played out quite easily. Still alot of time left for this to perhaps change. Whats your preliminary thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What do you want it to be? I'll give you the pressure looks "off", but the location is right. The Euro OP images are day old. I wasn't trying to be rude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18z GFS looks to have some issues before the storm reaches the plains. 12z(114) 18z(108) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18z GFS has the low passing practically overhead. Still all snow for Iowa though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I dont think any of the 18z runs have been kind to my area. Sheesh. DGEX was solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The Euro OP images are day old. I wasn't trying to be rude. I know you weren't. Wasn't trying to be either with my response. Just joking around. Anyway, I hot linked the images I posted...and they were updated with the current run for me. No harm, no foul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 DGEX was solid I cant recall a solid 18z GFS run yet for this system for SEMI. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Well, the system on the 26th-27th looks interesting. Seriously, it looks like our Iowa members are line for some decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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