IWXwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like it is in almost the same exact position as the UKMET at 144, a tad stronger. Lock that placement in, not because I want it, it probably will be close though. I trust a UKMET/Euro agreement, even 144 hrs out. Dang dude. You should have followed your own advice and stayed away until Monday. Look, all I'm asking is for more than 3.4" (Boxing Day). Now, back to my hole to hide and watch for the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Dang dude. You should have followed your own advice and stayed away until Monday. Look, all I'm asking is for more than 3.4" (Boxing Day). Now, back to my hole to hide and watch for the next 5 days. Hahahaha I agree with more than 3.4"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The cyclone near the Aleutian islands is the same cyclone that's going to be hitting us. Kinda rare for a low to remain coherent for so long like the GFS projects. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=90183'>latest_west_vis_nh.gif Quite the "look into the future" considering such a strong slp and being that far away and out in time. Cool image for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Almost feels like this area is destined to be sweating ptype until the end. Our biggest "sweating issue" will be actual moisture/precipitation, IMO. What a screwy storm, as presented on the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro never brings surface temps above freezing in st . louis, looks like a nice icing event, maybe some snow before the ice. Good amount of QPF. Interesting storm. Thoughts on ice csnavy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Could be an avalanche of sleet or sleet/ice mix looking at how high the warm nose is on these solutions. Also some moist neutral/weakly unstable air aloft that could make it interesting. I've noticed that the some of the precip seems to be coming from the convective parameterization scheme, especially on the ECMWF. Hard to tell how the upstairs is going to work out yet, but I have to think that the fact that this system is coming in on the heels of that cA airmass will result in a very pronounced low level cold wedge that will be hard to dislodge. It does look like it will eventually rise above freezing, but not until after the precip is long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It doesn't matter what anyone else says, the trend is clear to me right now... NW, NW, NW and occluding. The Euro mean tracks N of even here for goodness sake. Hopefully it's just some weird inaccurate trend but I'm not so sure of that, especially since they just did some flights to get some data before the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It doesn't matter what anyone else says, the trend is clear to me right now... NW, NW, NW and occluding. The Euro mean tracks N of even here for goodness sake. Hopefully it's just some weird inaccurate trend but I'm not so sure of that, especially since they just did some flights to get some data before the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 cirrus storm.. trend, trend, trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It'll flop back tonight when the models trend S, lol. Good lord we are still 5-6 days out. Normally it is not even thread worthy until tomorrow or so, and we have been bitching about it for 3 days already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 cirrus storm.. trend, trend, trend. 60's and sun. Congrats Wyoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Oh lol this thread is gonna get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Just for fun: a comparison of the 12z Euro runs from the 14 and 15th...for 12z Thursday (21st) and 12z Friday (22nd). Feb 14 12z Euro at 12z Thursday Feb 15 12z Euro at 12z Thursday Feb 14 12z Euro at 12z Friday Feb 15 12z Euro at 12z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 meltdowns popping off left and right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Colors look great but mm is greek to me lol. Wish they'd post the inch bar conversion right next to the mm. 25.4mm or 2.54cm to the inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 60's and sun. Congrats Wyoming. Tomorrow he'll be worried about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 impressive...996 in SE CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 impressive...996 in SE CO Still confused why this thing blows its you know what so soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 impressive...996 in SE CO GFS has been most consistent as to where the thing ejects out. Euro all over the place with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Still confused why this thing blows its you know what so soon super strong jet, deep trough, goes neg tilt really quick and has no where to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS has been most consistent as to where the thing ejects out. Euro all over the place with each run. Even in a dying state...good chance this thing is going to pump up a ton of moisture...not giving up yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Even in a dying state...good chance this thing is going to pump up a ton of moisture...not giving up yet Much further south than last night's Euro/UKMET, on the KS/OK border instead of the KS/NE border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 super strong jet, deep trough, goes neg tilt really quick and has no where to go Interesting how it tracks NNE as its weakening. You'd think it would go more easterly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Even in a dying state...good chance this thing is going to pump up a ton of moisture...not giving up yet still not bad. Consistent of 6" or so here and 12" cycloneville and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Same thing as above, but for the 0z Euro runs from the 15 and 16th. Feb 15 0z Euro at 168 hours Feb 16 0z Euro at 144 hours Feb 15 0z Euro at 192 hours Feb 16 0z Euro at 168 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The Euro has been having a hard time with this one it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 My hawkeye jackpot call for our subforum is looking decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 My hawkeye jackpot call for our subforum is looking decent. Idk man, hasn't Cedar Rapids danced around every 12" snowstorm for the last 20 years or something, not to saying your call looks bad right now, just riding the history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Have to admit I'm a little concerned about the "heavier" precip split for MBY, leaving us stuck in the middle with light amounts. Been showing up on the GFS rather consistently. We'll see if that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Idk man, hasn't Cedar Rapids danced around every 12" snowstorm for the last 20 years or something, not to saying your call looks bad right now, just riding the history. true, they're the new toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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