February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm

[OHweather]

Wow...looks like the Euro really trended stronger with the energy as it moves out of the west. If it closes off at 500mb and occludes that far west it won't really matter what the 50/50 does. Yikes. Wonder if the recon out in the Pacific had anything to do with these 0z models coming in a lot stronger with the energy moving out of the west.

 

[wisconsinwx]

keep that on accuweather.

 

What, you don't appreciate posters with their input?  No sarcasm or malice with this either.  I just think they are likely onto something, a stronger, perhaps quicker occluding system.  We will see, though.

[csnavywx]

Hate to be the Debbie Downer, but all of these solutions are fully occluded well before the MS river (some before the MO river). That doesn't bode well for big totals east of about ORD's longitude as the best frontogenesis and deformation will have been eaten up by frontolytic processes and a filling upper low by then.

[Chargers09]

So we go from the Euro being the furthest south to being the furthest north. Good ol run to run continuity. 

[BowMeHunter]

What, you don't appreciate posters with their input?  No sarcasm or malice with this either.  I just think they are likely onto something, a stronger, perhaps quicker occluding system.  We will see, though.

 

you think something different every run..

[MidwestChaser]

What, you don't appreciate posters with their input?  No sarcasm or malice with this either.  I just think they are likely onto something, a stronger, perhaps quicker occluding system.  We will see, though.

 

Euro's been all over the place. Not much run to run consistency there.

[BowMeHunter]

Hate to be the Debbie Downer, but all of these solutions are fully occluded well before the MS river (some before the MO river). That doesn't bode well for big totals east of about ORD's longitude as the best frontogenesis and deformation will have been eaten up by frontolytic processes and a filling upper low by then.

 

 

think we've all accepted that by now.

[wisconsinwx]

you think something different every run..

 

Yep, but even met's thoughts change.  In fact, I would argue the worst are the stubborn ones unwilling to change their positions on what a storm is likely to do.

[Geos]

Euro's been all over the place. Not much run to run consistency there.

 

No argument there. GFS has been more consistent - less extreme.

 

Cone of uncertainty for the EURO is now the Ohio River to MSP.

[Thunder Road]

[BowMeHunter]

Yep, but even met's thoughts change.  In fact, I would argue the worst are the stubborn ones unwilling to change their positions on what a storm is likely to do.

 

melting down

[MidwestChaser]

Yep, but even met's thoughts change.  In fact, I would argue the worst are the stubborn ones unwilling to change their positions on what a storm is likely to do.

 

You change run to run. 

[Chargers09]

I probably would wait for a few more days before 'locking in' anything. Especially when the model we're locking in just had this system in the OH valley last run. That's just me, though. 

[MidwestChaser]

I probably would wait for a few more days before 'locking in' anything. Especially when the model we're locking in just had this system in the OH valley last run. That's just me, though. 

 

The rational ones here think that as well. 

[RCNYILWX]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=92589&source=0

[wisconsinwx]

Trust me, I don't believe for a second this will occlude up into Minnesota, and the "lock it in" was facetious since it is a catchphrase.  They could be onto something is all I'm saying, even if it's not likely.

[MidwestChaser]

Trust me, I don't believe for a second this will occlude up into Minnesota, and the "lock it in" was facetious since it is a catchphrase.  They could be onto something is all I'm saying, even if it's not likely.

 

Once again, the Euro's been all over the map. 12z might have something completely different, shooting down your idea.

[OHweather]

I think LOT's write-up that RCNYILWX just linked sums things up pretty well.

[BowMeHunter]

Trust me, I don't believe for a second this will occlude up into Minnesota, and the "lock it in" was facetious since it is a catchphrase.  They could be onto something is all I'm saying, even if it's not likely.

now in spin cycle

[MidwestChaser]

now in spin cycle

 

[csnavywx]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=92589&source=0

This.

 

Now leave out the (nearly worthless) DGEX and it's even better.

[Thundersnow12]

I think the only feel good about this system place right now is probably Nebraska.

[csnavywx]

I think the only feel good about this system place right now is probably Nebraska.

Which would be a good thing for everybody on the forum... if indirectly. They need a few 2 footers out there if we're going to help keep the death ridge outta here this summer.

[Stebo]

Yep, but even met's thoughts change.  In fact, I would argue the worst are the stubborn ones unwilling to change their positions on what a storm is likely to do.

 

 

Meteorologists don't change run to run, unless you are a bad one like DT. You have to watch for trends in the models, today's trend has been toward a stronger solution, however to what magnitude is yet to be decided. To latch onto the most extreme solution each time is probably not a good way to convey your points (note you were thinking this was going to be way South just 24 hours ago).

[nwburbschaser]

I think the model shift tonight, especially the Euro just goes to show how far out we are and that uncertainty is going to prevail for a few more days. I see several strong solutions with plenty of time to adjust, and with 5-6 days of model schizophrenia to go, I wouldn't be too concerned about anything specific right now. 

[TugHillMatt]

No argument there. GFS has been more consistent - less extreme.

 

Cone of uncertainty for the EURO is now the Ohio River to MSP.

lol...that reminds of one of the meteorologists when I lived in PA who, no joke, had a forecast of a dusting to 1 foot for the next day.

[Thunder Road]

Ironic that the GFS has actually been the most consistent model so far.  Relatively speaking anyway.  But when we're talking 7-9 days out, that's really more of a curiosity than anything else.  Let's see if it stays that way the next 2-3 days.

[Stebo]

Which would be a good thing for everybody on the forum... if indirectly. They need a few 2 footers out there if we're going to help keep the death ridge outta here this summer.

Oh yeah, trust me when this storm started to materialize I was extremely pleased to see it. A huge snow pack out there does wonders for this region with respect to the death ridge and prospects of severe this spring.

[nwburbschaser]

Oh yeah, trust me when this storm started to materialize I was extremely pleased to see it. A huge snow pack out there does wonders for this region with respect to the death ridge and prospects of severe this spring.

 

To be honest, I would almost rather have this storm blow its load over Nebraska/N Kansas and put a dent in the drought. I wouldn't mind some snow here now, but I would rather see some benefits later this spring/summer if that's what the choices are. Obviously, the severe weather weenie in me trumps the winter storms. 

[snowstormcanuck]

240hr storm or bust.