TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I hear you on that. We snowcover hounds are apparently rare birds on this forum. We actually have had a pretty decent winter here for snowcover (though its bare sans piles at this moment) though near-winter-long snowcover at this latitude is saved for special winters (1977-78, 1981-82, 2010-11). Speaking of latitude, I think perhaps our northern latitude is why we never get a good sleet storm. No rhyme or reason to it, but I can never recall more than a half inch of pure sleet. The LAF boys and east coast boys have had a few 4"+ sleet storms. And word is...it takes a LOT to melt. Not even in the same ballpark as a dense wet snow. March sun may melt powder at 34F, but it will barely dent sleetpack at 50F. If you get a 4-5" sleet storm in late February at this latitude (no I dont think thats ever happened), you can all-but mark down that shaded areas will have white until April (assuming no March 2012 happens again). It is true...sleet pack makes an awesome white ground cover. DENSE and refreezes alot. It is like having the density of a snowpile spread out everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I hear you on that. We snowcover hounds are apparently rare birds on this forum. We actually have had a pretty decent winter here for snowcover (though its bare sans piles at this moment) though near-winter-long snowcover at this latitude is saved for special winters (1977-78, 1981-82, 2010-11). Speaking of latitude, I think perhaps our northern latitude is why we never get a good sleet storm. No rhyme or reason to it, but I can never recall more than a half inch of pure sleet. The LAF boys and east coast boys have had a few 4"+ sleet storms. And word is...it takes a LOT to melt. Not even in the same ballpark as a dense wet snow. March sun may melt powder at 34F, but it will barely dent sleetpack at 50F. If you get a 4-5" sleet storm in late February at this latitude (no I dont think thats ever happened), you can all-but mark down that shaded areas will have white until April (assuming no March 2012 happens again). I think one time I had about 1" of sleet here and it seemed like it lasted forever! It's like throwing a bunch of ice cubes on the ground... going to take awhile during typical winter temperatures. Less air in a sleet pack to warm up vs. snow which has a lot of air in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For comparison purposes, I'm posting the SFC map of February 24, 2007. Now compare with what the 12z GFS shows for next Thursday. Snow or ice.gif The difference is that the storm next week is going to be FAR weaker than the February 24, 2007 storm and also that there isn't a duel high pressure system in Canada like on February 24, 2007. And far colder with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I hear you on that. We snowcover hounds are apparently rare birds on this forum. We actually have had a pretty decent winter here for snowcover (though its bare sans piles at this moment) though near-winter-long snowcover at this latitude is saved for special winters (1977-78, 1981-82, 2010-11). Speaking of latitude, I think perhaps our northern latitude is why we never get a good sleet storm. No rhyme or reason to it, but I can never recall more than a half inch of pure sleet. The LAF boys and east coast boys have had a few 4"+ sleet storms. And word is...it takes a LOT to melt. Not even in the same ballpark as a dense wet snow. March sun may melt powder at 34F, but it will barely dent sleetpack at 50F. If you get a 4-5" sleet storm in late February at this latitude (no I dont think thats ever happened), you can all-but mark down that shaded areas will have white until April (assuming no March 2012 happens again). I just think that big sleet storms in any given location are rare. Maybe some areas are a bit more prone than others but I don't think I've seen any sort of detailed sleet climatology. Before GHD, I had never seen more than maybe a half inch to inch of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z Euro ensemble mean takes the sfc low from western OK/TX border to just east of DSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z Euro ensemble mean takes the sfc low from western OK/TX border to just east of DSM. At least it doesn't pump up the warm in front of it. That's quite the flop from yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z Euro ensemble mean takes the sfc low from western OK/TX border to just east of DSM. I'm surprised it takes it that far north with a weakening occluding storm. Wouldn't it be more likely to track it close to due east? The mean pressure goes from 1001-1005mb when it makes its trek from the border to Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Timing is about right: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI1000 AM CST MON FEB 26 2007...WINTER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLS......FEBRUARY 23 THROUGH 26...LOCATION COUNTY STATE SNOWFALLWINONA WINONA MN 29.5DAKOTA 5NW WINONA MN 26.0WINONA 3SSE WINONA MN 26.0GALESVILLE 1S TREMPEALEAU WI 25.0LANESBORO FILLMORE MN 25.0ONTARIO VERNON WI 24.0WEST SALEM LA CROSSE WI 23.9PRESTON FILLMORE MN 22.8LA CROSSE NWS LA CROSSE WI 22.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm surprised it takes it that far north with a weakening occluding storm. Wouldn't it be more likely to track it close to due east? The mean pressure goes from 1001-1005mb when it makes its trek from the border to Iowa. I know it makes no sense why it wouldn't head to the ENE where there is less resistance from the high pressure to the north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I can only remember one winter where we had more than just glazing of sleet on the ground from a given storm.. I don't remember what year, but, I do remember the parking lot at school, and the neighbor's driveway, as well as ours, had frozen tire tracks, and made driving on/through them difficult. I remember hacking away at the stuff on the driveway with my dad and brothers, trying to get it taken up. Still remember the "clang" of the scraper blade. It also seemed to take forever to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18Z GFS looking a little better. EDIT: Spoke to soon. Worse than the 12Z run. Boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18Z GFS looking a little better. EDIT: Spoke to soon. Haha, I was just about to say the same thing! Almost thought it was going back to what it was yesterday. Well it's better up this way through 156 hr. 0°C line doesn't get as far north. Low over STL at 156hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Haha, I was just about to say the same thing! Almost thought it was going back to what it was yesterday. Well it's better up this way through 156 hr. 0°C line doesn't get as far north. Low over STL at 156hr. Yep, just wish it wasn't weakening. As of now these solutions are still nice for snow, less of a wind potential, which is good I guess. I just get a feeling subsequent runs will continually cut back on moisture as this heads E/ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18Z GFS looking a little better. EDIT: Spoke to soon. Worse than the 12Z run. Boo. no you were right....babysteps...but it's a bit south and colder than 12z. btw 12z was .73 ice for cmh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A lot of us do pretty good on this run. Not what it was on the 12z yesterday, but still pretty good for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just wanted to drop in and say, it'd be nice if we could get some expertise from this board on the possible severe threat next Thursday in the Arklatex eastward into the Lower MS Valley and TN Valley over in Central/Western, considering I know there are plenty of knowledgeable severe posters from here. There appears to be some rather alarming signals coming from the model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A lot of us do pretty good on this run. Not what it was on the 12z yesterday, but still pretty good for this winter. Looks like another icy run for LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Geos, I can handle another foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like another icy run for LAF I thought this run was going to better for snow in northern IN. Geos, I can handle another foot of snow. I bet you can! Mr. "I got 40" of LES this winter so far!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Untill Monday or so I will continue to follow the models with a grain of salt. I must admit they are entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I thought this run was going to better for snow in northern IN. I bet you can! Mr. "I got 40" of LES this winter so far!" 40 inches? Is that it? I actually think it's closer to 50 inches of lake effect and 15 inches of synoptic snow (most of that from last Friday's storm..lol) We are up to about 65 inches or so from the season. Pretty big jump from where we were. However, like last winter, we haven't maintained a really deep snowpack because it keeps raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 40 inches? Is that it? I actually think it's closer to 50 inches of lake effect and 15 inches of synoptic snow (most of that from last Friday's storm..lol) We are up to about 65 inches or so from the season. Pretty big jump from where we were. However, like last winter, we haven't maintained a really deep snowpack because it keeps raining. Lol. I didn't realize it was quite that much LES. You might hit your average by April! --- LEhS looks good for a time along Lake Michigan as the low pulls across IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Why exactly is it occluding and falling apart when it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 lol, just hits a brick wall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The cyclone near the Aleutian islands is the same cyclone that's going to be hitting us. Kinda rare for a low to remain coherent for so long like the GFS projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18z GFS would be a kick in the nuts for here. Better precip skirts north and south of LAF. Any who, previously mentioned...but the 144 hour map of the 12z Euro ensemble mean is quite interesting. Surface map has the look of being "boxed in", looking up north...while the 500 maps have the "squeezed look". Strange storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The most likely area for really good snows that I'd bet on right now seems to be west of I-35 in NE/SD when the low comes out and you get that high theta-e air to go up and over the front thanks to the strong LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18z GFS would be a kick in the nuts for here. Better precip skirts north and south of LAF. Any who, previously mentioned...but the 144 hour map of the 12z Euro ensemble mean is quite interesting. Surface map has the look of being "boxed in", looking up north...while the 500 maps have the "squeezed look". Strange storm. Aren't those maps showing the "bowling ball" look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 lol, just hits a brick wall here. Nah, Toronto is the new snow magnet . How much snowdepth left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nah, Toronto is the new snow magnet . How much snowdepth left? I've got about 6-8" left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.