BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think I'd rather get rain than sleet. I despise the pinging sound of sleet... but 4" of it bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I despise the pinging sound of sleet... but 4" of it bring it on. Yep, the sheer amount of it made me think twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=022407_snow Looking at the NARR maps, the 12z GFS is pretty close to the track of that storm. I'll take a pass on a repeat like that. What a messy storm that was. Let's not act like it's a funeral yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z Euro looks to be coming north, through 150 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'll take a pass on a repeat like that. What a messy storm that was. Let's not act like it's a funeral yet. RIP Winter 2012-13: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I only have e-wall but it looks like it will follow the GFS with the quick occlusion/warm scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 lol, like big time north. 12z run has the low in KS at 0z Friday versus the 0z run having it in southern OK at the same time. Probably will be a "warm" one for LAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Don't concern yourselves too much with variability among the models for the upcoming storm. We've got to get past this afternoon's asteroid flyby first. And notice that we didn't even see today's Russia event coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Probably will be a "warm" one for LAF... Well...maybe not. Front end hit for here and places like ORD, MLI, etc. Then rapid occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I have no clue. sure was easy and fun though while the models were in pretty good agreement and printing out porn. long ways to go and probably lost the big storm this far east but still hopeful we can pull off something respectable. I would take cyclones prediction for here.. 4" sleet and 2.5" of snow. it would be amazing if you ended up with more sleet than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well...maybe not. Front end hit for here and places like ORD, MLI, etc. Then rapid occlusion. Yeah...my new hope is it occludes early enough to stop the WAA from torching us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I despise the pinging sound of sleet... but 4" of it bring it on. You do not want 4" of sleet. I promise on everything that is holy. There were people here renting floor strippers trying to clear sidewalks after GHD. I was towed out of ditches no less than 3 times those two weeks it took the ice to melt, not to mention I think I still have bruises on my rump. You do not want 4" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Don't concern yourselves too much with variability among the models for the upcoming storm. We've got to get past this afternoon's asteroid flyby first. And notice that we didn't even see today's Russia event coming. Could be a real warm event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah...my new hope is it occludes early enough to stop the WAA from torching us. Torch will be relative of course, but occlusion (rapid?) seems like a legit possibility. Anyway, in the end the 12z Euro is kinda like the 12z GFS...but not as juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For Mike and the southern ON crew, it basically shreds before it reaches there...on the 12z Euro. Pretty light QPF, if much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Interesting solution, wouldn't be bad for many in the NW areas of this subforum, in fact snowwise would be pretty darn good for the Quad cities, Milwaukee, Chicago, etc. Over 0.5" QPF all snow here, of course, who wants to bet that moisture will wane as we get closer? Of course, with the gulf wide open, that may not be nearly as big a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The system has no where to go. Occlusion or suppression. I guess if it ejects out of the Rockies already bombing out a lot of us will get hosed and see a lot of sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You do not want 4" of sleet. I promise on everything that is holy. There were people here renting floor strippers trying to clear sidewalks after GHD. I was towed out of ditches no less than 3 times those two weeks it took the ice to melt, not to mention I think I still have bruises on my rump. You do not want 4" of sleet. lol.. Seems we get jipped on freezing rain and sleet being near the lake so I'd like to experience a sleet bomb once over rain. Plus taking so long to melt is right up my snow cover addiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Don't concern yourselves too much with variability among the models for the upcoming storm. We've got to get past this afternoon's asteroid flyby first. And notice that we didn't even see today's Russia event coming. Missed opportunity. Alek should have added a "which poster gets hit by the asteroid" in his contest thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For Mike and the southern ON crew, it basically shreds before it reaches there...on the 12z Euro. Pretty light QPF, if much of anything. Ya that's what I figured after looking at the e wall maps. Oh well on to the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 lol.. Seems we get jipped on freezing rain and sleet being near the lake so I'd like to experience a sleet bomb once over rain. Plus taking so long to melt is right up my snow cover addiction. You would have loved it then. Glacier. Legit glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looking beyond on the 12z Euro, Gulf originated snow event for IN and OH quickly follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Interesting solution, wouldn't be bad for many in the NW areas of this subforum, in fact snowwise would be pretty darn good for the Quad cities, Milwaukee, Chicago, etc. Over 0.5" QPF all snow here, of course, who wants to bet that moisture will wane as we get closer? Of course, with the gulf wide open, that may not be nearly as big a concern. That doesn't sound that bad. I'd rather have it occlude rather then having warmer air sneak in at the end like the GFS. Hopefully it's a warning criteria snow for a lot of members in the end. This should have some influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 lol.. Seems we get jipped on freezing rain and sleet being near the lake so I'd like to experience a sleet bomb once over rain. Plus taking so long to melt is right up my snow cover addiction. Even tho you hate MI, you'd love it here. I have the same snowcover affliction. Lucky for me, about 8 weeks and counting of straight snowpack. About 18-20" on the ground here. I'd love to make a run at 30" before the eventual meltoff. Also I bet you'd like the Ice fishing too. Goodluck to all with next weeks parade ofstorms! All of NW lower looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think one thing everyone has to keep in mind is that this system will spin up from an upper low, which are notoriously difficult for the models to handle in terms of track and also often trend slower than initially forecast with time. We're still basically a week out so details will probably be murky until 3-5 days in at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 +1 RCNY! --- This solution would probably wipe out the area in IL & IN that has not seen a 3" snowfall this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 While not a monster, the 12z Euro is still a nice 6" snow for the GRR area. I will take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You do not want 4" of sleet. I promise on everything that is holy. There were people here renting floor strippers trying to clear sidewalks after GHD. I was towed out of ditches no less than 3 times those two weeks it took the ice to melt, not to mention I think I still have bruises on my rump. You do not want 4" of sleet. After the Presidents' Day Storm several years ago in PA, I had 7 INCHES of SLEET with 1 inch of snow on top. It was insane to shovel...also to drive in. Inches of sleet on the roadways is like driving in sand except you have NO traction. It was a mess. You would have loved it then. Glacier. Legit glacier. This was the only positive. The sleetpack that looked like snow lasted for weeks of warm weather. If you hadn't cleared around certain things like vehicles, good luck! The sleet had melted some and then refrozen around that it surrounded. i've never experienced anything like it. It was pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 lol.. Seems we get jipped on freezing rain and sleet being near the lake so I'd like to experience a sleet bomb once over rain. Plus taking so long to melt is right up my snow cover addiction. I hear you on that. We snowcover hounds are apparently rare birds on this forum. We actually have had a pretty decent winter here for snowcover (though its bare sans piles at this moment) though near-winter-long snowcover at this latitude is saved for special winters (1977-78, 1981-82, 2010-11). Speaking of latitude, I think perhaps our northern latitude is why we never get a good sleet storm. No rhyme or reason to it, but I can never recall more than a half inch of pure sleet. The LAF boys and east coast boys have had a few 4"+ sleet storms. And word is...it takes a LOT to melt. Not even in the same ballpark as a dense wet snow. March sun may melt powder at 34F, but it will barely dent sleetpack at 50F. If you get a 4-5" sleet storm in late February at this latitude (no I dont think thats ever happened), you can all-but mark down that shaded areas will have white until April (assuming no March 2012 happens again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For comparison purposes, I'm posting the SFC map of February 24, 2007. Now compare with what the 12z GFS shows for next Thursday. The difference is that the storm next week is going to be FAR weaker than the February 24, 2007 storm and also that there isn't a duel high pressure system in Canada like on February 24, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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