February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm

[Chicago WX]

I totally thought that it was going to run south, but it actually looks northwest of the 0z run. Kinda weird looking though.

 

Verbatim, it's quite the slug of ice/mix for LAF. 

[PatrickSumner]

I totally thought that it was going to run south, but it actually looks northwest of the 0z run. Kinda weird looking though.

 

Verbatim, it's quite the slug of ice/mix for LAF. 

Looks pretty nasty for us here in Marion as well. Yikes. Me no like ice. 

[snowstormcanuck]

I'd take the 12z GFS. Shovellable snow. Nothing spectacular but still decent.

[Chicago WX]

Liquid

 

Tick, tick, tick...

 

[snowstormcanuck]

Alek ftw with 3 page prediction. Might be ambitious.

[toronto blizzard]

I'd take the 12z GFS. Shovellable snow. Nothing spectacular but still decent.

Agreed especially considering it still has time to move south we can get into the heavier snow

[snowstormcanuck]

Agreed especially considering it still has time to move south we can get into the heavier snow

 

Per the 12z GFS, we're right in the heart of the "heaviest" snow band. It's just that the whole system occludes early and weakens as it moves into the block to our NE. Vortex over the Atlantic provinces is good but that norlun features impacting Labrador is too much. Puts everything downstream into the grinder.

[wisconsinwx]

Hmm, perhaps a repeat of the February 2007 storm, I forget the exact dates, but almost to the date I believe, where La Crosse and S Minnesota received around 2 feet from a two pronged storm.

 

Edit: it was February 23-25, 2007, so nearly the same time period six years ago.  Milwaukee was just on the edge, but inland areas of Southern Wisconsin saw much more snow and near blizzard/blizzard conditions.

[Chicago WX]

Hmm, perhaps a repeat of the February 2007 storm, I forget the exact dates, but almost to the date I believe, where La Crosse and S Minnesota received around 2 feet from a two pronged storm.

 

Edit: it was February 22-24, 2007, so nearly the same time period six years ago.  Milwaukee was just on the edge, but inland areas of Southern Wisconsin saw much more snow and near blizzard/blizzard conditions.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=022407_snow

 

Looking at the NARR maps, the 12z GFS is pretty close to the track of that storm.

[Thundersnow12]

The trends are not good with regards to the first system and then ours occludes and craps out

[SchaumburgStormer]

The trends are not good with regards to the first system and then ours occludes and craps out

Yeah. Not quite feeling the snow love from the models I felt yesterday. As Alek would say, "I like trends", so lets see if this continues. If so, this may be another in a long line of busted storm threads.

[gosaints]

That storm produced best thundersnow of my life...

[Chicago WX]

12z UKie only goes out to 144 hours, but has the look of a northern solution. 

 

[PatrickSumner]

The trends are not good with regards to the first system and then ours occludes and craps out

 

Remember...the storm is a week away. Still plenty of model runs to be had.

[Chicago WX]

12z GGEM remains south. 1003 mb over Paducah at 168 hours. Cuts just to the east of Detroit at 180 hours, and then redevelops. C'mon Canada.

[Chicago WX]

Death band? 4D-VAR FTW or FTL.

 

[RogueWaves]

Awfully quiet in here after the euro run... It's like someone died. This thing won't be fully sampled until sometime Wednesday correct?

 

Like Goliath was felled by a rock actually..

[gosaints]

Ensembles pretty far north. Really weaken as they move east though. Lots of coastal transfers.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Haha we are due for a vanishing storm which reappears a bit closer to the event.

 

 

Me too. First and 5.

 

Someone held... 1st and 15 to go.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's going to take a while for this to sort it self out.

 

Chicago isn't getting liquid.  And if by some measure it does it will be a crippling freezing rain event.

 

The GFS has a 15KT+ Easterly surface wind during the start of the event at STL.

 

That snowfall map posted up above my post doesn't add up with the Skew-T's. 

 

The GFS would seem weird for snow further South and it would be a fine line but this is not the typical deep South Westerly fetch type flow.

 

When the precip starts on the OP GFS.  A massive slug of moisture and lift over-ride the dry cold air-mass. Temp's are 27F and wet-bulb to 23F before shooting up to 28F around mid-day as the precip let's up and the warming starts.

 

By that time .80 QPF is dropped as snow and sleet.  By the time we go above freezing 1.25 QPF is dropped.

 

 

So we are looking at a set up maybe not upper the same as Jan 1st 1999.  But it's one of those East of the SLP track cold sector storms.

[Chicago WX]

12z GEFS ensemble mean images. Has to be some weenie hard left solutions. But they dig further south than the op run, then strengthen and cut.

 

 

 

[wisconsinwx]

12z GEFS ensemble mean images. Has to be some weenie hard left solutions. But they dig further south than the op run, then strengthen and cut.

 

Not bad at all, the mean actually strengthens from Missouri to the Great Lakes, but that's obviously contaminated by the amped hard left solutions.

[cyclone77]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/546/worldfeb15.jpg/'>

 

[BowMeHunter]

Not bad at all, the mean actually strengthens from Missouri to the Great Lakes, but that's obviously contaminated by the amped hard left solutions.

 

I knew you couldn't hold to your two day break from the storm lol..  no need to include the maps in your quote when he is right above you.  thanks.

 

I don't remember anything (shocking) from that feb storm you mentioned above...  looks like madison got around 16" or so and Milwaukee around 10" over multiple days.

[wisconsinwx]

I knew you couldn't hold to your two day break from the storm lol..  no need to include the maps in your quote when he is right above you.  thanks.

 

I don't remember anything (shocking) from that feb storm you mentioned above...  looks like madison got around 16" or so and Milwaukee around 10" over multiple days.

 

Everyone here knows how hard it is to resist the temptation, unless I had a full two days worth of planned activities that kept me away, I guess I was all words, no action.  Anyways, back on topic.

[BowMeHunter]

I hear ya., wiscowx.  No snow has come easy here this winter unless you're Madison and this event looks to be no exception.  Lots of wasted hrs and sleep time this winter following storms and this one is going to put the icing on the cake..   Better than a boring winter though.

[wisconsinwx]

I hear ya., wiscowx.  No snow has come easy here this winter unless you're Madison and this event looks to be no exception.  Lots of wasted hrs and sleep time this winter following storms and this one is going to put the icing on the cake..   Better than a boring winter though.

 

Yep, better than last winter for storm tracking, more informative therefore as well.  Seems there are two distinct camps setting up.  Wonder if there is any chance of a compromise, or if it is more likely to be in one camp or the other.

[A-L-E-K]

The GEFS mean seems particularly useless right now given the range of solutions but the idea of quick occlusion and a weakening mess seems to be picking up steam.  Plenty of time for more surprises but the arrow is pointing down for sure.

[BowMeHunter]

Yep, better than last winter for storm tracking, more informative therefore as well.  Seems there are two distinct camps setting up.  Wonder if there is any chance of a compromise, or if it is more likely to be in one camp or the other.

 

I have no clue. sure was easy and fun though while the models were in pretty good agreement and printing out porn.   long ways to go and probably lost the big storm this far east but still hopeful we can pull off something respectable.  I would take cyclones prediction for here..  4" sleet and 2.5" of snow.

[wisconsinwx]

I have no clue. sure was easy and fun though while the models were in pretty good agreement and printing out porn.   long ways to go and probably lost the big storm this far east but still hopeful we can pull off something respectable.  I would take cyclones prediction for here..  4" sleet and 2.5" of snow.

 

I think I'd rather get rain than sleet.