PatrickSumner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I've started saving images with the 12z runs today. Even though it's about 50/50 that I see any snow/wintry wx out of this system. But, it looks like a pretty major storm...and I hope to at some point after, post them as a sort of reanalysis. Yeah, Keep the faith buddy...honestly I think we end up seeing a nasty ice storm here. Not what I want, but it makes sense with the heavy snow band not to far to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I've started saving images with the 12z runs today. Even though it's about 50/50 that I see any snow/wintry wx out of this system. But, it looks like a pretty major storm...and I hope to at some point after, post them as a sort of reanalysis. Yeah, we spend all winter waiting for these....we're not even remotely due for something like what's being modeled but what the heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Meteocentre has some nice maps. 12z GEFS individual runs at 180 hours (D is the deterministic/op run, C is the control run). Pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 we spend all winter waiting for these....we're not even remotely due for something like what's being modeled but what the heck Yep. But worst case, I dump them all in the trash can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For further upstream, 12z GEFS at 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For further upstream, 12z GEFS at 192 hours. 2:14 12z GEFS 192.gif Wow, full suite of GEFS members. Awesome find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 P004 would probably be the worst case scenario for where the majority of subforum members are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I see the models held serve while I slept, if anything they were a bit better out this way. The only thing that I will say is, lets hope the early in the week system doesn't stick around too close, because then you end up with too much confluence and a GGEM like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow, full suite of GEFS members. Awesome find. Yeah. That site is awesome. So people were asking about GHD earlier, and what the models showed. The threads are in the central/western forum BTW. Anyway, I went to the first thread, and on the second page I found this... Posted on January 24, 2011 at 7:45am by our resident storm guru, Alek: "0z ECM was a step in the right direction for those in the eastern OH valley who are still in the game." Nailed it. To be fair, he came back with this at 10:11am: "After doing some looking around, I think there is more potential with this period than i had originally thought." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah. That site is awesome. So people were asking about GHD earlier, and what the models showed. The threads are in the central/western forum BTW. Anyway, I went to the first thread, and on the second page I found this... Posted on January 24, 2011 at 7:45am by our resident storm guru, Alek: "0z ECM was a step in the right direction for those in the eastern OH valley who are still in the game." Nailed it. To be fair, he came back with this at 10:11am: "After doing some looking around, I think there is more potential with this period than i had originally thought." That was originally dubbed the Mexico blizzard lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I only read 5 or so pages, but it doesn't seem like the models were all showing a monster at that range. Very few really. A few quotes from the 12z runs on the 24th... 12z GFS really mucks this one up. SW cutoff, lingers...lingers, moves steadily SE and then it gets crushed way south by the PV. Shocker. Yeah the 12z GGEM looks fairly close to the 0z Euro. GFS not even in the same ballpark right now. Long way out but 12z GGEM at 180 fwiw: that would be a nice hit, and with the second and stronger piece of energy behind it. 12z Euro looks fairly similar to the 0z run FWIW. Maybe a slight bit more ridging out in front. Decent hit of snow for the QC to southern WI to N IL to N IN to S MI through 174. Awaiting more frames... Turns into a glorified front post 180, where as the 0z run had some development for the OV on the tail end. Regardless probably a 2-4", maybe a bit more in places, type of deal for the areas outlined before. EDIT: 12z GGEM from the 25th: 12z GGEM has a 1004 mb low over Evansville at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I only read 5 or so pages, but it doesn't seem like the models were all showing a monster at that range. Very few really. A few quotes from the 12z runs on the 24th... nice work...separating legend from reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Was waiting for someone to go back and figure that out in those old threads lol thought about doing that when I have some free time. I have like 200 images from GHD and here is what the GEM had at 132hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18Z GFS is a significant change towards the Euro. Large high to the NNE of the storm moving SE as it comes off the Rockies. Would be a crushing hit to ORD and west (along I80) with a crippling ice storm in the I-70 corridor. The storm is already occluding as it moves across KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 nice work...separating legend from reality Euro bought in on the afternoon of the 25th too. Though was too far southeast in the end, but not bad 6-7 days out. Clearly, the GFS was playing catch up... Needless to say, the GFS be on its own. Euro going to keep it...at 144 light-mod overrunning snows for IA, MN, and WI. SLP in SE. Indiana at 156hrs. Nice hit for ORD/LAF/DTW/STL. I just saw 144 on the PSU site. Yeah, that would have elicited an uh oh from me if I was in LAF. Based on the slp configuration at that time, I'm surprised this thing didn't cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18Z GFS is a significant change towards the Euro. Large high to the NNE of the storm moving SE as it comes off the Rockies. Would be a crushing hit to ORD and west (along I80) with a crippling ice storm in the I-70 corridor. The storm is already occluding as it moves across KS. This ^^ I can't even begin to tell you how concerning it is to know that someone is going to get a crippling ice storm out of this. Images flashback to my mind from Louisville in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Probably around 990mb at 168 hours. Des Moines gets crushed! T-snow is that map based on actual ratios? or 10:1? That's based on actual ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This ^^ I can't even begin to tell you how concerning it is to know that someone is going to get a crippling ice storm out of this. Images flashback to my mind from Louisville in 2009. nothing is set in stone..way too early to "know" anything besides the likelihood of a significant storm somewhere in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 nothing is set in stone..way too early to "know" anything besides the likelihood of a significant storm somewhere in the region. True. I just think it's fairly apparent that someone is going to get a lot of ice. I'd rather have the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks reasonably good for Toronto. 4-6", maybe 8" if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks reasonably good for Toronto. 4-6", maybe 8" if we're lucky. My call: 0-24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Tonight I hope someone extrapolates the 84hr NAM wrt this storm. Could provide some valuable insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Fortunately for you SSC, we already waste considerable computing power on doing just that. It's called the DGEX. Otherwise known as "the attempt to compress a turd to make a diamond". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Tonight I hope someone extrapolates the 84hr NAM wrt this storm. Could provide some valuable insight. Damn. How could I forget: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html'>http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Tonight I hope someone extrapolates the 84hr NAM wrt this storm. Could provide some valuable insight. basically that would be an 84 hr extrapolation beyond the 84 hr nam..... I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Fortunately for you SSC, we already waste considerable computing power on doing just that. It's called the DGEX. Otherwise known as "the attempt to compress a turd to make a diamond". Damn. How could I forget: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Isn't the DGEX some sort of NAM-GFS hybrid? NAM initialization with GFS parameters or some such? Can't have that precious >84hr NAM nectar diluted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Tonight I hope someone extrapolates the 84hr NAM wrt this storm. Could provide some valuable insight. 06z DGEX tracked a 976mb low up towards Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Isn't the DGEX some sort of NAM-GFS hybrid? NAM initialization with GFS parameters or some such? Can't have that precious >84hr NAM nectar diluted. Something like that. It's crap on a stick. Here's the wide angle version, complete with clown map. Congrats MSP, LSE, etc...though others do fine as well. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/'>http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Something like that. It's crap on a stick. Here's the wide angle version, complete with clown map. Congrats MSP, LSE, etc...though others do fine as well. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/ lol @ that webpage design. Takes me back 10 years at least. Where's the AVN link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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