Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Sfc low just NW of Joplin at 168hr. Just a beast of a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Might be time for WSW's. This made me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 MKX taking it easy so far... THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS NORTHEAST. MAINDIFFERENCE IS THAT THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH.GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A STRONG LOW THAT WOULD FAVOR HEAVY SNOWEVENTUALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS AFAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH THEGFS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON BOTHMODELS...WITH THE HEAVIEST ON THE GFS. THIS WILL BE A POTENTIALSNOWSTORM FOR LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWERECMWF SO WILL NOT RAISE POPS FROM THE CONSENSUS GRIDS ON THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Probably around 990mb at 168 hours. Des Moines gets crushed! T-snow is that map based on actual ratios? or 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Probably around 990mb at 168 hours. Des Moines gets crushed! T-snow is that map based on actual ratios? or 10:1? no I don't know what ratios it takes into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That is a SEMI meltdown track. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That is a SEMI meltdown track. Lol Flying to florida next Friday to see a few tigers games so we will get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Refresh my memory. How did the models handle GHD a week before the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Refresh my memory. How did the models handle GHD a week before the event? Euro/GEM had it on lock around 156hr out, GFS was weaker and much further south at that timeframe. GEM then lost it for a time where the Euro pretty much had it the whole time and GFS slowly creeped north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Refresh my memory. How did the models handle GHD a week before the event? Honestly, I remember they were all over the place relative to what they are showing at this point for this storm. In the 4-7 day range, most were suppressed relative to the areas that were affected with heavy snow, suggesting more of an Ohio Valley hit. They wavered, and I think the GEM and GFS were the most stubborn to abandon more suppressed solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Refresh my memory. How did the models handle GHD a week before the event? they sniffed it out with ease and wavered little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Honestly, I remember they were all over the place relative to what they are showing at this point for this storm. In the 4-7 day range, most were suppressed relative to the areas that were affected with heavy snow, suggesting more of an Ohio Valley hit. They wavered, and I think the GEM and GFS were the most stubborn to abandon more suppressed solutions. Correct. The EURO had it the most consistent for the longest period of time. I remember Skilling was excited about it a full week ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Correct. The EURO had it the most consistent for the longest period of time. I remember Skilling was excited about it a full week ahead of time. Yes, the Euro at that time might've had its pinnacle of success and reputation in the eyes of most of us weather weenies and forecasters. The Euro this year has been fine, but I certainly wouldn't feel as confident in it at this point in time given it's had its ups and downs this winters like most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro/GEM had it on lock around 156hr out, GFS was weaker and much further south at that timeframe. GEM then lost it for a time where the Euro pretty much had it the whole time and GFS slowly creeped north. The GFS seemed to make baby steps towards the Euro for like 8-12 runs straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro>all other models combined IMO. The Euro nailed that East Coast Nor Easter 10 days in advanced while it took the GFS until 4 days before the event. Also, Hurricane Sandy was predicted 10 days before it hit and GFS once again did not get it until 4,5 days before the event hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The GFS seemed to make baby steps towards the Euro for like 8-12 runs straight. yep. Slowly went north run by run. crazy to think but sfc temps here are in the low 20's at this time in northern IL with this LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just wondering... what was the lowest pressure for the GHD Blizzard? Added: That's one huge wind field! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just wondering... what was the lowest pressure for the GHD Blizzard? I want to say 994mb or 995mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I want to say 994mb or 995mb. And what was the high pressure reading to the north? Must've been in the 1050mb range or something in order to create the 60+mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And what was the high pressure reading to the north? Must've been in the 1050mb range or something in order to create the 60+mph gusts. 1046mb or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I want to say 994mb or 995mb. Ok. I see MKX had 998mb near Indy at 12am the 2nd. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/wx_events/snow/020211/FEB2MSLP.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Glad I saved some of the 240 hr Euro images for this storm...just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Can't believe the size of the snow field depicted on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Can't believe the size of the snow field depicted on the gfs Spreading the wealth for sure. I know I should not be excited until Monday or so, but I can help it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 on the 18z GFS, ORD gets 1.18" before "changeover" (although up there it's only a few hundredths of IP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=IL&stn=KORD&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec I'm ok with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Some strong winds just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's almost unfathomable that even with an SLP tracking right over Chicago, we still get this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Glad I saved some of the 240 hr Euro images for this storm...just in case I've started saving images with the 12z runs today. Even though it's about 50/50 that I see any snow/wintry wx out of this system. But, it looks like a pretty major storm...and I hope to at some point after, post them as a sort of reanalysis. Yeah, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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