Harry Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 wow.. this is going way south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 6:36 AM, Harry said: wow.. this is going way south.. Like Ohio River south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Warm up the diving board for wisconsinwx. What a weird run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 6:38 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Warm up the diving board for wisconsinwx. What a weird run. Indeed it was. Gets shredded as it makes it's approach. Thing looked like it was gonna cut TN/KY but then decides to turn north and tracks near the OH/IN line to Detroit but a coastal gets going and robs our low of all it's moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 6:45 AM, Harry said: Indeed it was. Gets shredded as it makes it's approach. Thing looked like it was gonna cut TN/KY but then decides to turn north and tracks near the OH/IN line to Detroit but a coastal gets going and robs our low of all it's moisture. Sounds like a weird track. Does it get shredded east of the MS River like the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 No diving board, pretty much just messing. Thankfully I will stay away from this storm for two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 6:47 AM, Geos said: Sounds like a weird track. Does it get shredded east of the MS River like the GGEM? Yep.. Not even a half inch qpf east of here and or from here due south to i70 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 6:56 AM, Harry said: Yep.. Not even a half inch qpf east of here and or from here due south to i70 and east. Better to get these messy, weak runs out of the way while we're still 6-7 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 6:58 AM, Geos said: Better to get these messy, weak runs out of the way while we're still 6-7 days out! I hear you and agree. Pretty sure we have alot more twists and turns to do before this is settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Word from prins is that the GEM ensembles are further north than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It appears like the GEM and the Euro just absolutely clock northern KS, all of NE and IA....I wonder how much it have left as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 7:16 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Word from prins is that the GEM ensembles are further north than the op. I'd say that's about right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Interestingly enough, the GFS ENS are also north of the Op, even though the Op GFS is pretty much in line with the CMC ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At this point in time, with real good consistency between the ECMWF and the GEM (I will buy into it's upgrade) operational runs I tend to discount their ensembles, and ensemble means as they run on a lower resolution. When I see the operational GFS starting to lean towards the Euro and Gem ops runs it leads me to say that KS/NE and Iowa will get clocked, and a further north trend is unlikely, the system will likely weaken as it moves into the OH Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 8:09 AM, Minnesota Meso said: At this point in time, with real good consistency between the ECMWF and the GEM (I will buy into it's upgrade) operational runs I tend to discount their ensembles, and ensemble means as they run on a lower resolution. When I see the operational GFS starting to lean towards the Euro and Gem ops runs it leads me to say that KS/NE and Iowa will get clocked, and a further north trend is unlikely, the system will likely weaken as it moves into the OH Valley The Euro just trended wayy south...the Canadian was already south but trended way weaker. I wouldn't say anything has been consistent except for the GFS being one of the more northern models for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 No meltdowns last night, huh? 0z Euro ensemble mean for hours 144, 168, and 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 5:38 AM, buckeye said: Then there's the nogaps which shows what happens when there's no semblance of a 500 low anywhere near the lakes and the storm has all the room in the world to amplify and pump a ridge.... 992 low to se IA and severe wx up into the ov. I think severe weather into the OV might be pushing it. Looks like prior stronger runs of the GFS: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html'>http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Awfully quiet in here after the euro run... It's like someone died. This thing won't be fully sampled until sometime Wednesday correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 00z Euro, GGEM, and 06z GFS all have < 6" for DTW. EDIT: And DGEX! (!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 To complete the circle of questionable models...0z FIM was an west to east bowler through central IL/IN. Kinda weak, but still a decent hit for several. The 12z run from yesterday had a sub 990 low cutting through Iowa. Good continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 2:31 PM, Chicago WX said: To complete the circle of questionable models...0z FIM was an west to east bowler through central IL/IN. Kinda weak, but still a decent hit for several. The 12z run from yesterday had a sub 990 low cutting through Iowa. Good continuity. Any circle of questionable models has to include the CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS blows up the 18-19th storm, down to 992mb at 105 hours. We'll see if it has any downstream effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:04 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z GFS blows up the 18-19th storm, down to 992mb at 105 hours. We'll see if it has any downstream effects. Hopefully the first storm trends back to being a piece of crap, because even with it blowing up, it just means rain for most, and then the high sinks south and totally suppresses this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 If nothing else, this run is definitely going to be toasty. At the very least, it shouldn't be nearly as weak as the 06z run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:18 PM, wisconsinwx said: Hopefully the first storm trends back to being a piece of crap, because even with it blowing up, it just means rain for most, and then the high sinks south and totally suppresses this storm. First storm moves along pretty well. Looked like it was going to come south but now i dont think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:20 PM, Stevo6899 said: First storm moves along pretty well. Looked like it was going to come south but now i dont think so. Yeah, I was concerned when it started out/ejected further south, but it looks to be pushing the high pretty effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS weaker, but much warmer aloft for here. 2m temps safely below freezing. Lots of ince. Looks good for snow for NE, IA, MN, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:22 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z GFS weaker, but much warmer aloft for here. 2m temps safely below freezing. Lots of ince. Looks good for snow for NE, IA, MN, etc. Wow, what a nasty ice storm for these parts. Pretty good swatch of 0.5"+ of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like better ridging allows the low to move more NW and pump in more warm air. Surface low passes between MKE and CHI, 850 0C line makes it to the WI/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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