AppsRunner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:27 AM, wisconsinwx said: 0z GFS already testing my patience, but no meltdown here. The snowfall zone definitely shifted south. Those who chose you for first meltdown are probably liking their chances.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:35 AM, wisconsinwx said: This is just coming from someone who went to the Bowme school of negative thinking, but I think the future shifts will be south, so if I had to pick a jackpot zone, I'd go from Kansas City/Omaha east through DVN, C/N Illinois (probably about Peoria) then through N Indiana (South Bend or thereabouts) and then on to Detroit and Toledo. lol just because of one further south/weaker run? 1/1 on my meltdown picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:35 AM, wisconsinwx said: This is just coming from someone who went to the Bowme school of negative thinking, but I think the future shifts will be south, so if I had to pick a jackpot zone, I'd go from Kansas City/Omaha east through DVN, C/N Illinois (probably about Peoria) then through N Indiana (South Bend or thereabouts) and then on to Detroit and Toledo. Take a break until monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ill take the 00Z GFS and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:36 AM, Thundersnow12 said: lol just because of one further south/weaker run? 1/1 on my meltdown picks. Mini meltdown, we will need Alek for a ruling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:36 AM, Thundersnow12 said: lol just because of one further south/weaker run? 1/1 on my meltdown picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:38 AM, BowMeHunter said: Take a break until monday. Take him ice fishing with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:35 AM, wisconsinwx said: This is just coming from someone who went to the Bowme school of negative thinking, but I think the future shifts will be south, so if I had to pick a jackpot zone, I'd go from Kansas City/Omaha east through DVN, C/N Illinois (probably about Peoria) then through N Indiana (South Bend or thereabouts) and then on to Detroit and Toledo. Dammit, well I know who I should've picked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:31 AM, Angrysummons said: This setup is messed up. Something will give and make it look more natural. The wavelength between this system and its front runner are so close....hard to believe this thing could gain any appreciable latitude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 4:44 AM, buckeye said: The wavelength between this system and its front runner are so close....hard to believe this thing could gain any appreciable latitude... On 2/15/2013 at 4:46 AM, Angrysummons said: That is how I see it as well. Should come out of the rockies further south and move up into the OV area with peak intensity. Not buying this western lakes stuff right now either. DT pretty much echo'd this. The lakes Vortex shifted well South on this run. This thing has no where to go. If the lakes vortex ends up further South, slower to exit. Then the SLP will probably end up coming out of Oklahoma but either Way cold air will be out front. Seeing a widespread winter zone on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 00z GFS handling of the secondary piece of energy is quite different compared to previous runs, pretty much flattens our upper level trough. Plus looks like less ridging between our system and the upper level low to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z GFS certainly trended towards the 12z Euro suite in closing off the front running storm over the Lakes and pulling it out slower...and in allowing heights to build over the Davis Straight and Greenland, blocking up the pattern a bit. However, it is one run of the GFS. Let's see what its ensembles do and what the Euro does in an hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z GGEM tracks just south of the OH river into southeast OH and transfers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 5:10 AM, snowlover2 said: 0z GGEM tracks just south of the OH river into southeast OH and transfers. Can you link to maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Here's the French version of the site...I know there is an English version too but I don't have it bookmarked http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=fr&mod=gemglb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 5:18 AM, OHweather said: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=90089'>GGEM 192.gif Here's the French version of the site...I know there is an English version too but I don't have it bookmarked Lol...blame it on the upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Man the GGEM is crazy suppressed after 168, even more so than its 12z counterpart.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah the GGEM was 'fixed' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 5:20 AM, buckeye said: Lol...blame it on the upgrade It somehow turns into a solid event for most of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 5:21 AM, OHweather said: It somehow turns into a solid event for most of Ohio. Everything is noise until the euro speaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 5:21 AM, Stebo said: Yeah the GGEM was 'fixed' Bet DT just blasted through a tube of lube looking at this GEM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 5:32 AM, Harry said: Bet DT just blasted through a tube of lube looking at this GEM run. Would explain why my Facebook feed hasn't lit up yet with *ALERT ALRT!**...you can fill in the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Then there's the nogaps which shows what happens when there's no semblance of a 500 low anywhere near the lakes and the storm has all the room in the world to amplify and pump a ridge.... 992 low to se IA and severe wx up into the ov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 5:35 AM, OHweather said: Would explain why my Facebook feed hasn't lit up yet with *ALERT ALRT!**...you can fill in the rest. BTW.. I like how the model really blows up the first system ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Rofl at DT comment! Skilling's latest thoughts. Quote The latest 6pm Thu GFS model run offers little to counter the notion late next week's storm could end up this winter's biggest (not necessarily saying a lot given the lackluster nature of this snow season) and that it may be preceded by a less intense but potentially messy early week system. The latest predicted track of the late week storm is closer to the more southerly tracks put forth earlier Thursday by both the GFS and European ensembles from earlier today. The storm's a long way off and forecast adjustments--even significant ones-- are ALWAYS possible at that range in time. So don't mark this one a "done deal" yet. But there appears to be nothing in this current GFS run that suggests the notion of a potentially significant late week storm--and very possibly a snowstorm at that---has yet been derailed. What IS interesting is how this latest forecast concentrates the heaviest precip in the Thursday/early Thursday night time frame. It also brings the closed 500 mb low right over us as the system occludes. You can get some very respectable accumulations out of such a scenario. A fascinating forecast situations with many questions still present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 5:40 AM, Harry said: BTW.. I like how the model really blows up the first system ahead of it. It certainly has enough space between the early week storm and the late week storm to do that...with a nice ridge well into Canada in between. I don't think it's right although that storm would be fun for the western lakes...per the Canadian. I'm not noticing the upgrade yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The GFS ensemble mean did shift a touch South from 12z but still North of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 5:52 AM, Angrysummons said: The GGEM is like watching a drunk enjoy himself right now over the last "several" runs. Hopefully the upgrade kicks in soon, it has made it worse than ever lol. I noticed the upgrade for snows over Northern KS, all of NE and IA with the 02/15 0z run, it looks much like the 02/14 12z run of the Euro for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 00z Euro closing off the ULL out ahead...*sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 6:24 AM, andyhb said: 00z Euro closing off the ULL out ahead...*sigh* Yep.. Looks like this run will go south. Unsure of how far though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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