Powerball Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 11:31 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Temps are the biggest thing in question in my mind at this point. A storm of this intensity is going to want to pump a ton of warm air on its eastern flank. It's essential the Mon-Tuesday storm deepens as much as is currently modeled over E Canada to lock in the confluence aloft/banana arctic high pressure at the sfc and impede any cutting. That's a fear. With these storms, models rarely overdo WAA. On the other hand, they also tend to underdo wet-bulbing effects too. At this point, the worst case scenario is probably the 06z DGEX. On the other hand, the time period around February 22nd has been quite snowy for Detroit the last few years, so we have that bit of mojo going for us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 what does a bowling ball storm mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 3:30 PM, weatherbo said: what does a bowling ball storm mean? A southern stream storm that goes west to east across the country without gaining much latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What I like seeing in the models right now is the presence of a cold arctic high prior to the system which should promote at least snow to start here before a switch over (if it even does that lol) Can't believe I'm saying this 8 days out but with the models in excellent agreement I just had to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I don't think I've ever been this excited about seeing a 12z GFS run for a 180+ hour fantasy storm. Having to watch this thing for a whole week is going to be torture. High expectations cause me too much anxiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I agree its kind of sick that I am watching a model this hard this far out. 1st storm cutting further west. Really has the look that the 2nd one has to be supressed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:11 PM, gosaints said: I agree its kind of sick that I am watching a model this hard this far out. 1st storm cutting further west. Really has the look that the 2nd one has to be supressed.. nah...nothing about this says suppression...looks like another bowling ball coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Those boobs are a little lopsided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Loving the baroclinic zone on the lee side of the rockies as this emerges around 156..we'll see a massive area of lift is this plays out. Huge spread the wealth potential. Really liking the consistency here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 lush maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Pretty damn sexy looking run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I know it's to early for specifics but those of us south of I80 have to be at least somewhat concerned about the icing potential with this one. This has major ice storm written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:26 PM, Chicago WX said: Pretty damn sexy looking run. It's epic...massive area of heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow, IA to N IL to S WI crushed. Looks like a rainer for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Mostly within truncation now. Half the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:28 PM, Chicago WX said: Wow, IA to N IL to S WI crushed. Looks like a freezing rainer for here. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:28 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Mostly within truncation now. Half the battle. I feel about as good as possible about a storm this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:29 PM, Alek said: I feel about as good as possible about a storm this far out Me too. First and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 epic boston blizzard like run for WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:29 PM, Alek said: I feel about as good as possible about a storm this far out Its great we have a beast to track but its going to be such a long 180 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:29 PM, Alek said: I feel about as good as possible about a storm this far out I'm pulling for you. If anyone is in arrears for snowfall, it's Chicago. Looks like we'll be able to spread the wealth a fair bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:29 PM, snowstormcanuck said: fyp A little on the front end I guess, but intense WAA should flip us over quickly to plain rain. Of course getting into the details this far out... Looks like a wide swath of 12"+ for Nebraska through WI. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I like svr wx or snow, and it doesn't have to be IMBY. I'm just fascinated that the models are latching onto a more active period with some significant signals to watch for the upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:31 PM, Stevo6899 said: Its great we have a beast to track but its going to be such a long 180 hours lol Yeah my goodness the way we are speaking about specifics this far out it is going to be a mental challenge to weather the changes. Thankfully this is such a massive system there will be some margin for error for many areas, not the tenuous rain/snow teetering that everyone has gone through this year if the system continues to be modeled this strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:34 PM, Chicago WX said: A little on the front end I guess, but intense WAA should flip us over quickly to plain rain. Of course getting into the details this far out... Looks like a wide swath of 12"+ for Nebraska through WI. Very nice. I doubt this ends up being a rainer here but hey, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:34 PM, Chicago WX said: A little on the front end I guess, but intense WAA should flip us over quickly to plain rain. Of course getting into the details this far out... Looks like a wide swath of 12"+ for Nebraska through WI. Very nice. Nice thing about this range is the sky's the limit. Dream big my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:37 PM, PatrickSumner said: I doubt this ends up being a rainer here but hey, I could be wrong. FWIW, it trended warmer here as well (mixing to MBY) despite the earlier week storm being west. People shouldn't be discounting warm/wet solutions so easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:24 PM, Alek said: lush maps Whenever you see a 160+ kt jet rounding the trough at h3, can't help but be extremely impressed with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:39 PM, Alek said: FWIW, it trended warmer here as well (mixing to MBY) despite the earlier week storm being west. People shouldn't be discounting warm/wet solutions so easily. Oh I am not saying that warm/wet isn't an option. If anything, the GFS gives us Northern IN folks some very heavy backlash snows. Either way, impressive set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:39 PM, Alek said: FWIW, it trended warmer here as well (mixing to MBY) despite the earlier week storm being west. People shouldn't be discounting warm/wet solutions so easily. Agreed, way too early to rule that out. We need the track to be more like the 00z euro to not have mixing/rain concerns north of I-80. The strength of the system as modeled on the GFS would likely result in stronger WAA than depicted. Also, warm sector severe potential looks pretty epic. Wouldn't be surprised at all if SPC highlights an outlook area with tonight's day 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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