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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm


Powerball

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Lol Harry was right. Some will never learn. What a joke. 200 hours? Really people? And at least have some meteorological reasoning. Not "why not? We know there is going to be a storm." Really? Put some money down.

 

I guess the first significant alaskan ridge we've seen in a long time and a 110+ knot 300mb jet diving into the west coast isn't enough to suggest something will transpire during this time frame.

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This thread makes sense. With storm 1, 2, 3 being discussed at length, it's nice to have them organized instead of piecemeal in the mid range thread.

 

Well, first storm is a non-starter with virtually zero discussion. 2 has it's own thread. So I don't see how the discussion would get garbled in the medium range thread. That being said, I'm not going to make a federal case out of this. Hope it doesn't become a common practice though.

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This could really be a good bowling ball type system as it stands right now.

If the -NAO blocking and also confluence from the upper low over the St. Lawrence Valley is as strong as modeled on the ensembles, the storm is only going to get so far north before transfer to a developing secondary on the east coast. Big question is will it be amped enough to make it far enough north to bring a warmer solution for northern IL and points east. Overall, the large scale pattern is strongly supportive of storminess late next week and that potential storm initially cutting toward the lakes, with a deeply negative PNA progged.

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Models have been consistent enough (almost remarkably so) with this threat that it`s worth starting. No need to get bent out of shape. Bow needs some good mojo and maybe this is it

 

last storm was good enough for me this winter. had a white xmas.. a 6"+ event.. some clippers... some scraps of cutters.. above avg precip...  enough cold for decent ice on the lakes now.

 

I'll still have fun tracking snow prospects until the bitter end in May... but could mostly care less if they miss here..  I'm a big snow cover days weenie and once we hit the last of Feb those days have my number and all I really care about is if our dog can get out for a day or two and romp around in some snow before it melts or turns glacier.

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