bluewave Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 You can see how the euro ensembles underestimated the amplitude of the MJO wave. I believe that is helping pump the SE Ridge more than a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I would not toss that low that comes up after the primary goes into the Midwest, if it turns out to be deeper and hooks more up the coast that thing could manufacture its own cold air here and we could pull something off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I would not toss that low that comes up after the primary goes into the Midwest, if it turns out to be deeper and hooks more up the coast that thing could manufacture its own cold air here and we could pull something off.At this point I wouldn't count on that happening, that would be a real long shot. The 12z euro ensembles are downright ugly with this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 i went back and looked into it, but if we can get into another favorable mjo phase period in early march along with a west based -nao/-ao/-epo/+pna, it would be very interesting for us even though we will be into the last few weeks of winter at that point. With a slowed down pac jet due to the blocking, the lack of a se ridge and the huge baroclinic temp gradients that are present in march with the sun angle increasing, you can get monsters, I wouldn't doubt a possible ku event IF we get that setupNail on the head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Funny how this was "the best setup in 2 years" a couple days ago...typical hype it up in fantasy range, then everything falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Funny how this was "the best setup in 2 years" a couple days ago...typical hype it up in fantasy range, then everything falls apart.Thing is it was the best set up in two years. Think about the past two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Thing is it was the best set up in two years. Think about the past two years. Right setup. Wrong ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Right setup. Wrong ENSO.I agree, we started to go downhill after the +ENSO/weak el nino fell apart back in late october. Had we maintained the weak nino, I believe this winter would have been vastly different even with the -PDO base state. There would have been much less RNA (-PNA) IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 What a difference a few days makes, im ready for spring now, if threats are over then bring on the warm temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Getting back to the failed nino that was predicted, back when people were still calling for one, say september or so, we should have known better that it wasn't happening based on the SOI readings, lack of strong Kelvin Waves at the time and the long term -PDO. The GLAAM and GWO were also not supportive of one at the time. I was kinda surprised people acted shocked when it collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Getting back to the failed nino that was predicted, back when people were still calling for one, say september or so, we should have known better that it wasn't happening based on the SOI readings, lack of strong Kelvin Waves at the time and the long term -PDO. The GLAAM and GWO were also not supportive of one at the time. I was kinda surprised people acted shocked when it collapsed. The PDO during the summer was one that you expected to see with a developing La Nina rather than an El Nino. I believe it was the first peak of developing El Nino by labor day since the 50's. http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The PDO during the summer was one that you expected to see with a developing La Nina rather than an El Nino. I believe it was the first peak of developing El Nino by labor day since the 50's. http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Yes you hit the nail on the head that was why I was so skeptical of it at the time. Also if you read Ed Berry at the time, he was very skeptical of one as well. That guy is a genius with ENSO, GWO (which he created), MJO, GLAAM, Kelvin and Rossby waves, etc., he gets confusing at times but is always a good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Gfs alot further south this run for next weeks event. Wonder if it does not drive it into lakes this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Still ends up over Missouri ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Still ends up over Missouri ugh Horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The 18z trended more favorable with the coastal...this could be the start of a positive trend on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The 18z trended more favorable with the coastal...this could be the start of a positive trend on modeling. Only problem is the cold air. I do agree with Snowgoose though about if the coastal is stronger, it might manufacture it's own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Only problem is the cold air. I do agree with Snowgoose though about if the coastal is stronger, it might manufacture it's own cold air. There's a lot of cold air ahead of the system...NYC's 850s are -14C at 84 hours on the 18z GFS. The problem is that the storm weakens so it takes its time moving east, and that attempts to erode the cold air. If you have a more compact shortwave completing the trek across the country, it'll be moving into a much better airmass. The key is to strength the storm so it meets up with the cold air brought into place by Tuesday's cutter. There's another opportunity around Day 8...when that system passes, cold is once again ushered into the Northeast. There's another Colorado Low moving east so that could bring a snowfall to the area. Certainly an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS is pretty active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS is pretty active February is going to finish much colder than average (probably around -2F), and we should get one or two more chances for a snowstorm before the calendar turns to March. I still like a more wintry March than in recent years with a potential PNA spike around the 1st of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Gefs also has a secondary low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 i have been away and haven't checked on the models in a few days.. so what is happening with this friday storm? also what about the 26th and the 4th of march was another potential nor easter yet so far down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The ensemble means of both the GFS and Euro are colder than the operational runs for this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Gefs also has a secondary low too weak and too warm bad combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 too weak and too warm bad combo Yes but it's a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The ensemble means of both the GFS and Euro are colder than the operational runs for this potential. the 850's yes barely the rest of the levels - not cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 too weak and too warm bad combo Just remember, the models did not even show the blizzard that we recently saw until 138 hrs. out. This one won't be a blizzard of course, but it is not too late at all for some positive changes here. If there is more phasing or a more rapid developing low, this could easily be a significant snowstorm. Not my forecast, just saying there is potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 February is going to finish much colder than average (probably around -2F), and we should get one or two more chances for a snowstorm before the calendar turns to March. I still like a more wintry March than in recent years with a potential PNA spike around the 1st of the month. Not hard to do! I have doubts though with our recent climo screaming March=Warm. We did finally break he November=Warm streak this year so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yes but it's a start not unless the coastal can intensify and produce its own cold air ................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 are we talking about friday? The ensemble means of both the GFS and Euro are colder than the operational runs for this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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