MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS tries to get a coastal going but fails to do so. The 1st wave gets sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Agreed, Isotherm. The only difference here is that we actually have a cold airmass this time. But I can easily see the low occluding in the Midwest, leaving almost nothing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS tries to get a coastal going but fails to do so. The 1st wave gets sheared out. even if it does its too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 even if it does its too warm Yes, on this run it was. We need the primary to go further south and east before it transfers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yes, on this run it was. We need the primary to go further south and east before it transfers. not going to happen as of now - BUT to be fair lets see if the EURO whips up a miracle solution to save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 not going to happen as of now - BUT to be fair lets see if the EURO whips up a miracle solution to save us It's really hard to get a snowstorm when the southeast ridge is roaring its ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Agreed, Isotherm. The only difference here is that we actually have a cold airmass this time. But I can easily see the low occluding in the Midwest, leaving almost nothing for us. Yeah it's too bad we couldn't get a real -NAO this winter - that was the major thorn in our side. The Christmas events would've dumped much more on I-95 if the NATL block was stronger, and overall, it would've been a snowier winter. We're going to end up with a -AO/NAO technically in the record books for DJF, but the temp departures will look nothing like those composites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GGEM and Ukie are horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The Canadian ridge gets pinched of into block, after the low gets into Midwest. That's the problem. The MJO also dosen't look it will be helpful for the next two weeks.It's forecast to be in the COD, after next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Well I'm afraid to say it but the fat lady has took the stage! Still enjoyed the 10 i got a week ago. Best event in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This threat went to hell in a hand basket. We once again have unanimous model consensus against us. If the euro agrees with all the other models again, it's over IMO. Especially given the fact that this is mjo supported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This threat went to hell in a hand basket. We once again have unanimous model consensus against us. If the euro agrees with all the other models again, it's over IMO. Especially given the fact that this is mjo supported. This threat never looked like much of anything, and the near miss this past weekend was fully supported by an unfavorable trough/ridge orientation. Our snowfall window was Feb 8th-15th when the MJO peaked in phase 2. Now we'll probably be waiting until the end of feb or early march for our next real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This threat never looked like much of anything, and the near miss this past weekend was fully supported by an unfavorable trough/ridge orientation. Our snowfall window was Feb 8th-15th when the MJO peaked in phase 2. Now we'll probably be waiting until the end of feb or early march for our next real threat. We had alot of bad luck this winter. January found ways not to produce, but we did have alot of trace events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 We had alot of bad luck this winter. January found ways not to produce, but we did have alot of trace events Well given how NYC fared, I'm pretty satisfied with my 28.1" thus far in Monmouth. If we get another moderate event, this winter will go down as above normal snowfall IMBY. Overall though it was an underwhelming winter given 12" of my total came from November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This threat never looked like much of anything, and the near miss this past weekend was fully supported by an unfavorable trough/ridge orientation. Our snowfall window was Feb 8th-15th when the MJO peaked in phase 2. Now we'll probably be waiting until the end of feb or early march for our next real threat.i went back and looked into it, but if we can get into another favorable mjo phase period in early march along with a west based -nao/-ao/-epo/+pna, it would be very interesting for us even though we will be into the last few weeks of winter at that point. With a slowed down pac jet due to the blocking, the lack of a se ridge and the huge baroclinic temp gradients that are present in march with the sun angle increasing, you can get monsters, I wouldn't doubt a possible ku event IF we get that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 We had alot of bad luck this winter. January found ways not to produce, but we did have alot of trace events Our area didnt fare as well as some others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It looks like the polar vortex will be on the other side of the pole in Asia by the time we go into march, however even in that situation with the vortex in asia, we would not need extreme cold on our side of the pole, due to the fact that ocean temps will be much less of a factor as they are in say november and december, they are at their coldest by then. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, I have to look at it again, but don't -qbo's that go into +qbo's favor late season sudden stratospheric warmings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Wow that was an ugly euro run, not unexpected though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 We had alot of bad luck this winter. January found ways not to produce, but we did have alot of trace events January had a pretty cold stretch that unfortunately produced absolutely nothing. I did think this event had potential with a powerful Colorado low and a cold high pressure over the Northeast, but the models seem to want to occlude the storm in the Midwest. Not quite sure why that's happening with such a strong trough, so there still could be correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It looks like the polar vortex will be on the other side of the pole in Asia by the time we go into march, however even in that situation with the vortex in asia, we would not need extreme cold on our side of the pole, due to the fact that ocean temps will be much less of a factor as they are in say november and december, they are at their coldest by then. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, I have to look at it again, but don't -qbo's that go into +qbo's favor late season sudden stratospheric warmings? This is part of the problem. We're losing the Canadian PV that gave us the cold spell from Jan 20th-Feb 10th. With a huge blocking high over Canada, we're not going to see extreme cold air on our side of the pole, but we could score a snowstorm from a high-moisture cut-off low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Euro is pretty meh in long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Euro is pretty meh in long term.Yep and we can pretty much write this "event" off now, every model is in agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Euro is pretty meh in long term. It's got that PV way up north near the Canadian Archipelago, no real sign of a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 We had alot of bad luck this winter. January found ways not to produce, but we did have alot of trace events Thank god for the November and February storm. i went back and looked into it, but if we can get into another favorable mjo phase period in early march along with a west based -nao/-ao/-epo/+pna, it would be very interesting for us even though we will be into the last few weeks of winter at that point. With a slowed down pac jet due to the blocking, the lack of a se ridge and the huge baroclinic temp gradients that are present in march with the sun angle increasing, you can get monsters, I wouldn't doubt a possible ku event IF we get that setup March is known to feature massive storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 We just came out of a 20 day colder against the averages period and for some it yielded a tremendous snowstorm. Hard not to expect the atmosphere to backdown . Our problem is its doing it at the end of winter with an ugly looking MJO so the clock probably runs out. Ths was a good period wrapped inside a s..t winter. Think we actually caught a break. If not for the MJO going into 8 1 2 in the last 3 weeks we may hav relived last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Until the MJO signal improves, winter threats are done. MJO was the saving grace of the past few weeks as the Arctic/Atlantic patterns have been horrid. Punch the clock and wait at least 7-10 days now for the next real threat, assuming the MJO wave continues propagating back into the more conducive octants for march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Until the MJO signal improves, winter threats are done. MJO was the saving grace of the past few weeks as the Arctic/Atlantic patterns have been horrid. Punch the clock and wait at least 7-10 days now for the next real threat, assuming the MJO wave continues propagating back into the more conducive octants for march. The winter has actually averaged a -AO, Tom, so it's hard to say the arctic pattern has been terrible. The NAO has been slightly positive. I certainly agree we haven't seen a classic block, but the pattern hasn't been totally ugly either. Problem is, we really need a classic block to get the 50-60" winters like 09-10 and 10-11 (70" up here in the elevated suburbs those winters). I disagree that it's been a sh*t winter. November was cold and snowy, December and January were poor, and February will go down as cold and snowy. I have 37" of snowfall on the season so I've hit average. With a decent late February and March, I could get to 50" which is a benchmark for a memorable winter in this area. 03-04 and 04-05 were 50" winters and we weren't criticizing those years. Of course, we did have much colder airmasses with the +PDO/+PNA pattern back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The winter has actually averaged a -AO, Tom, so it's hard to say the arctic pattern has been terrible. The NAO has been slightly positive. I certainly agree we haven't seen a classic block, but the pattern hasn't been totally ugly either. Problem is, we really need a classic block to get the 50-60" winters like 09-10 and 10-11 (70" up here in the elevated suburbs those winters). I disagree that it's been a sh*t winter. November was cold and snowy, December and January were poor, and February will go down as cold and snowy. I have 37" of snowfall on the season so I've hit average. With a decent late February and March, I could get to 50" which is a benchmark for a memorable winter in this area. 03-04 and 04-05 were 50" winters and we weren't criticizing those years. Of course, we did have much colder airmasses with the +PDO/+PNA pattern back then. I'd say it's been about average. If I see 6" or so more snow, I'll make a run at 30" for the season which is slightly above average for this area. It very easily could be over too though, so hopefully we can luck out with a late threat. The snow from the storm a week ago is already almost completely gone here, so that's a huge bummer. It was nice seeing a blanket of white on top of all the ruins still around from Sandy. Now I have to look at the saltwater-killed grass and bushes all over town again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I don't see any snowstorms or major storms at all in the next week .. We just had a 2 week period of cold temps with a big snowstorm mixed in, thanks to the MJO rolling through 8-1-2. Now, the mjo is going into 3-4-5 before possibly going into the COD. After it goes into the COD, we have to see which phase it comes out in. That will tell us if we will get any more storm threats. As of now, winter is done for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The winter has actually averaged a -AO, Tom, so it's hard to say the arctic pattern has been terrible. The NAO has been slightly positive. I certainly agree we haven't seen a classic block, but the pattern hasn't been totally ugly either. Problem is, we really need a classic block to get the 50-60" winters like 09-10 and 10-11 (70" up here in the elevated suburbs those winters). I disagree that it's been a sh*t winter. November was cold and snowy, December and January were poor, and February will go down as cold and snowy. I have 37" of snowfall on the season so I've hit average. With a decent late February and March, I could get to 50" which is a benchmark for a memorable winter in this area. 03-04 and 04-05 were 50" winters and we weren't criticizing those years. Of course, we did have much colder airmasses with the +PDO/+PNA pattern back then. Now that we have gone into another long term -PDO (more Ninas/-ENSO) phase, the Atlantic will be key in the years to come. The positive thing I see is the AMO, we are heading into a long term -AMO phase and that favors -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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