Febuary 22-24

[atownwxwatcher]

Its ridiculous what the 12Z Euro does, it tries to slam the storm into this in Canada.....

 

GGEM takes a primary into the Lakes ..only difference is that it secondaries. Every piece of guidance takes the primary into the Lakes...

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro is being impacted by energy out West at 144 hours, the Euro  as you can see is cutting something off down in AZ/NM.  The GFS does not have that energy over AZ/NM.  The Euro cutting that energy into the SW is likely resulting in it sharpening the entire trough out west and hence thinking it can turn the system over the Plains negative and slam it into the ridge.  The GFS idea is likely more correct, the system is probably going to get sheared to bits but something may generate along the MA coast as a secondary.

[Zir0b]

Its ridiculous what the 12Z Euro does, it tries to slam the storm into this in Canada.....

 

I'm 99% sure things are going to look different in a couple of days from now... what people don't realize is what it takes to get to the potential weekend storm.... first the handling of this trough currently affecting the east coast and where and how strong it positions itself into a vortex over southeast Canada, followed by the mid-week cutter and how that develops into a vortex/our eventual 50/50 low...and then of course the big shortwave trough which is still THOUSANDS of miles away from even reaching the pacific coast. 

[Snow_Miser]

The Euro is being impacted by energy out West at 144 hours, the Euro as you can see is cutting something off down in AZ/NM. The GFS does not have that energy over AZ/NM. The Euro cutting that energy into the SW is likely resulting in it sharpening the entire trough out west and hence thinking it can turn the system over the Plains negative and slam it into the ridge. The GFS idea is likely more correct, the system is probably going to get sheared to bits but something may generate along the MA coast as a secondary.

The secondary, though weak on the GGEM still manages to give our area a substantial event. That secondary will be the difference between nothing on the Euro and a substantial winter storm on the Canadian.

[PB GFI]

Twice this yr the euro drove the main center into michigan and twice it corrected underneath. Once before xmas. Once in jan. The primary will weaken in the face of the block and secondary off the NC. Coast. You are not driving a system into canada w a neg nao. It will correct under. Even if u get a prim to pitt. It will transfer. You are gona have to worry more about systems shearing out than a GLC

The euro ensembles should hav a better handle than the oprerational they hav all yr

[MJO812]

Euro Ensemble mean

 

[atownwxwatcher]

Euro Ensemble mean

 

Still cuts the primary into the lakes region...has height rises out ahead of the system at 144.. just develops a secondary... 

[Snow_Miser]

The 18z GFS does what DT says can not happen in meteorology. It drives a primary low north of Chicago with a block overhead. I think the Canadian has the best overall handle with the system right now IMO given the overall synoptic pattern, which agrees with DT.

 

The GFS now also tries to develop a secondary, but it's weak and not as strong as the Canadian's secondary.

[MJO812]

The 18z GFS does what DT says can not happen in meteorology. It drives a primary low north of Chicago with a block overhead. I think the Canadian has the best overall handle with the system right now IMO given the overall synoptic pattern, which agrees with DT.

 

The GFS now also tries to develop a secondary, but it's weak and not as strong as the Canadian's secondary.

 

All the models drive the low northward into the block. How is that possible?

[nzucker]

All the models drive the low northward into the block. How is that possible?

The problem is more that the storm weakens as it moves east. We have a nice air mass with -12C 850mb temps for a front end thump but the shortwave minors out.

[tombo82685]

All the models drive the low northward into the block. How is that possible?

storms can move north into that block. They just have to weaken or redevelop south, unless the block weakens.

[mikemurph44]

All the models drive the low northward into the block. How is that possible?

Very possible, after it runs into the block it weakens and transfers the energy to redevelop a secondary low near the coast

[Snow_Miser]

The GFS has a stronger secondary. It's rain, but it has quite a bit more precip than previous runs.

[Zir0b]

i wouldn't look at the gfs for another 3 days 

[PB GFI]

storms can move north into that block. They just have to weaken or redevelop south, unless the block weakens.

Tom , they can , but  they typically dont like to. The European tried this twice ths yr , only later to correct further south.( not saying it can happen, just don`t think it does )  .

You probably get a surface reflection that goes thru the Ohio valley but dies .

I think this is a strong enough block that you see redevelopment along the EC.

I think some the models are goin to advertise a shunt , but in the end something winds up near the BM .or just south  ( not west of us )

[Hailstorm]

Any word on the 0z Euro, GFS ensembles and GGEM please? I assume they're not impressive because of the lack of replies?

[CooL]

Any word on the 0z Euro and GGEM please? I assume they're not impressive because of the lack of replies? :grin:

 

you got that right, lmao

[Hailstorm]

So all of them do not even depict a secondary or a strong southern stream?

[CooL]

So all of them do not even depict a secondary or a strong southern stream?

 

Euro does have a southern stream system next sunday.. Looks like rain to snow but our cold air source is fading fast

[Hailstorm]

Thanks. So the Euro shears out the 2/22 storm while developing a second storm and breaks down the -NAO ridge?

[CooL]

Thanks. So the Euro shears out the 2/22 storm while developing a second storm and breaks down the -NAO ridge?

 

Yeah pretty much. This run didn't impress me that much but im sure there will be a few threats in the next few weeks 

[bluewave]

I think that the reason the primary is running to the lakes rather than all the energy just cutting

underneath is the unfavorable MJO right now. The block is there forcing the redevelopment, 

but the MJO pahse 4 is allowing the SE Ridge out ahead of it. That being said, the models

are having a tough time with the exact redevelopment details and the amount of CAD over

the Northeast.

 

MJO phase 4 competing with the block

 

 

 

Euro hybrid pattern with block 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

All this hype for nothing, DT is gonna fail miserably. The models look awful.

[Isotherm]

Here's a potential problem with the friday potential. Note the GFS ensembles H5 pattern progged below; it seems to be a situation similar to late dec in which we had an ineffective "blocking ridge" in central-eastern Canada, but this ridge was not strong or expansive enough across the NATL to really suppress the baroclinic zone.

This height anomaly forecast is slightly concerning b/c we see the SE Ridge "hooking up" with the Canadian mid level ridge like we saw earlier this winter. So although we've got a great 50/50 low and some ridging in Canada, it's not true blocking if the height anomaly fields link up from Florida northward to Canada. This could allow the primary low to cut very far north as current models are depicting, though a secondary would eventually have to develop, it might not be far enough south to do us much good.

We'll have to monitor this situation, but if this occurs it basically goes along with the theme of the winter. So close, yet so far. Another ineffective ridge that classifies as a technical -NAO. Maybe we'll change this situation after the 20th.

The MJO pulse through 7-8-1 did manage to produce a monster snowstorm on the 8th of feb, a light even this past Wed, and a mdt event for eastern New England right now. The MJO will be cycling through phases 4-5 over the next 7 days, which should promote a retrogression of the mean trough axis into the Rockies for the time being. This coincides w/ the current forecast of heights falling in the West, rising in the East, making the Friday event an unlikely producer of meaningful snow.

I think our next real window of opportunity for snow accumulation greater than an inch or two is probably the last week of February into the first week of March. Will have to see if the MJO cuts through the COD and propagates back into the more favorable octants by D 5-8, at which time we could see another 1-2 week pulse of snow chances like we just came out of. But as it stands, the friday potential doesn't look great to me.




 

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[MJO812]

All this hype for nothing, DT is gonna fail miserably. The models look awful.

 

The MJO isn't going to help. It's in an unfavorable phase. I think it's a little too early to give up. Lets see where we stand on Wednesday.

[Momza]

All this hype for nothing, DT is gonna fail miserably. The models look awful.

That is what you said last week leading up to the blizzard if I remember your posts correctly.

[NEG NAO]

The models are not giving us a big east coast storm any more because of the MJO - just posted this in the banter thread :

 

Looks like winter in the east may be coming to an end sooner then later - so if we are going to end it with a big storm it has to be soon

we are currently in MJO phase 3

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

and according to this research paper after the MJO enters phase 3 the temps warm up in the east within 5 - 20 days

http://www.atmos.umd..._report_mjo.pdf

[MJO812]

^^ A lot of people are jumping on the Feb 26 -March 7 period for  a big storm a long the coast. Lets see how that plays out. The MJO looks like it will end up in the COD after it travels through 3 and 4.

[JSantanaNYC]

Its weird.. when mets say is a good pattern for storms. Nothing happens. When they say is bad... a historic storm comes.

[SnowGoose69]

Its weird.. when mets say is a good pattern for storms. Nothing happens. When they say is bad... a historic storm comes.

 

It pretty much all comes down to timing in the end, that setup the entire storm system organized dead on as a big high was sliding to our north in perfect position and we had somewhat of a 50/50 low in place.  I've seen some horrible winters or months as far as cold air and even the overall pattern  produce snow and some not.  December 2000 came within 1 day of only having about 1.5 inches of snow for NYC despite a great AO/NAO and overall pattern yet December 2002 and 2003 which really did not have the best setups overall produced about 30 inches of snow because everything was well timed.