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Febuary 22-24

Chrisjmcjr

By Chrisjmcjr,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

HPC


 

RELIED ON THE 00Z/16 GEFS MEAN FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE GEFS MEAN HONORS THE INCREASE IN BLOCKINESS
BEST OF THE MOST RECENT GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY
WITH REGARD TO THE WAVE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MID PERIOD.
EXPECT THIS WAVE TO STAY SQUASHED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MIDWEST, WITH AN ULTIMATE MILLER TYPE B REDEVELOPMENT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAY 7. THIS TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN
ONE OF THE MORE EXPANSIVE AREAS OF SNOW AND ICE THIS WINTER
SEASON, WITH A SHELF OF POLAR AIR AVAILABLE FOR THE OVERRUNNING OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

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Posted

How did they do with today's storm? It's a weak away .

well we got nothing from this storm - good wording weak - yes thats what next weeks system is forecasted to be as of right now - and its less then a wEaK away - sure things can change ...................

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

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I wouldn't say its not a problem, but the NAO is the #1 teleconnection during this time period.

Better hope the -NAO is slightly East Based. This is when a situation like this actually needs it. Getting an Extremely West Based -NAO will either tear this storm to shreds or it'll push it down to VA/NC and barely stay alive.

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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

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Better hope the -NAO is slightly East Based. This is when a situation like this actually needs it. Getting an Extremely West Based -NAO will either tear this storm to shreds or it'll push it down to VA/NC and barely stay alive.

You can have a major snowstorm for NYC without one or even two of the elements that make a storm likely along the east coast. You can have it without negative NAO, you can have it without a +PNA, you can have it without a 50/50 low. These factors just make a storm more likely to occur but do not necessarily mean that a storm IS going to occur. You can also have ALL the favorable elements for a major snowstorm and NOT have a major snowstorm. There are exceptions to every rule in this game. In fact, I think one of the most requried features on the map/s are the cold surface high pressure system to the north/nw of us, but there have been rare exceptions to that too.

WX/PT

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

You can have a major snowstorm for NYC without one or even two of the elements that make a storm likely along the east coast. You can have it without negative NAO, you can have it without a +PNA, you can have it without a 50/50 low. These factors just make a storm more likely to occur but do not necessarily mean that a storm IS going to occur. You can also have ALL the favorable elements for a major snowstorm and NOT have a major snowstorm. There are exceptions to every rule in this game. In fact, I think one of the most requried features on the map/s are the cold surface high pressure system to the north/nw of us, but there have been rare exceptions to that too.

WX/PT

exactly - the high has to be the constant and all the other indicies are variables - here is a good article explaining

 

http://www.nationalweatherstation.com/2013/02/14/where-are-all-the-big-snow-storms-a-quick-lesson-in-weather-patterns-and-looking-ahead/

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MJO812

MJO812

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Posted

Dt says all the models were wrong at 0z.

 

 

This  discussion will focus on the potential event for February 22 over the Middle Atlantic states and whether not the models from early Saturday morning have handled the situation correctly are not.

 

 As you will see in this discussion I believe most of the weather models have  screw this up   mostly  because of the unusual weather pattern developing.  I believe there  is an ice storm coming for a good portion of  VA NC  and perhaps Maryland  FEB 22. However the weather models early Saturday morning to the casual observer appear to be substantially different from what they have been showing on Thursday and Friday .   

 

 

This first image is the 0z  SATURDAY GFS   Model  at 500 MB.  (That's about half way up in the atmosphere and as pretty close to the Jetstream level)   .  This map is pretty self explanatory.  We can see the large Upwepr Low  over the Rockies which it probably bringing that area blizzard on the 20th of February.  The system is trying to move out into the Plains   but there is a problem.     One of the big flaws in the GFS  Model  is that it OVER  evelop    features ...  especially large   Upper and surface Lows.    In this case because the GFS model is probably over developing the huge upper Low over Maine and southeastern Canada...   the Model ends up altering the entire pattern.  The super intense low over southeastern Canada and the large LOW / trough over the Rockies cause the model to develop a very strong RIDGE  --  the  RED LINES -- over the eastern Plains and the Midwest.   The 0z GFS  actually extends the RIDGE   into Southern Canada!   Of course the system in the Rockies over Colorado is trying to come east the causes another piece of energy coming down from Alaska that is trying to shove the system over Colorado eastward. 

 

http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/gfs_namer_132_500_vort_ht.gif

 

In this next image the GFS model  (162  hours)    it tries to resolve this dilemma by lifting the large and strong low pressure area over Colorado north eastward into Minnesota...  In an attempt to go over the top of the   RIDGE!   To be fair  to the GFS ....it is not only the GFS model which does this sort of thing but all weather models when you have two large   Upper Lows  next to each other    ALL models..  ALL ofmthem   have problems resolving how to handle this sort of situation.      As we will see the European model also is mishandling this as well.  As I stated several times in the video on Wednesday and over the past week...  One of the big rules in the weather business is that you cannot have two large upper low   in close proximity to each other.

 

 http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/gfs_namer_162_500_vort_ht.gif

 

Here is the European model from early Saturday morning  -- the 0z  run ( which comes  out 1-2am).  The European model at 120 hours is pretty similar to what the GFS is showing.  We can see the large powerful storm over the great basin  ( NV / UT area).  Then we can see the large Upper Low  Maine and southeastern Canada.  And just like the  GFS Model..  A large gap or  BULGE  has developed between these two systems over the Plains  andthe Midwest  (  black  squggly  line) which again extends into South Central Canada.

 

 http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/0zEC120HR.gifAt day6

 

 The European model tries to resolve this dilemma the same way the GFS does..  Instead of trying to undercut  the   RIDGE...  The European model attends to go over the top of the  RIDGE which is a  Meteorological  impossibility.  As we can see on this map  AT  DAY 6...   the top of the Ridge extends almost into Western Canada...  So it is  not at all possible for this  Low  over  NV  to  take a track from  NV  to  COL  to MT  to  Alaska 

 

http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/0ZEC144.gif

 

 

Indeed by day  7 the European model has the low parked over Montana and North Dakota and the ridge   extends into Hudson's bay Canada.  It is possible that a piece of the LOW  over Nevada Utah and Colorado may end up getting trapped over Montana but the main energy is going to undercut the RIDGE  and not try and go over.  http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/0Z168EC.gif

 

SUMMARY..  All the operational or regular models solutions  -- the operational G FS the operational European -- from early Saturday morning screw this up big time.  The European ensemble handle it much better as does the Canadian model. lets see what the 12z  Models  are doing ...

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