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Febuary 22-24


Chrisjmcjr

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Verbatim ends up as a moderate event around 0.5-0.6 for most of the area NYC south

 

 

Verbatim ends up as a moderate event around 0.5-0.6 for most of the area NYC south

this will not look like reality 9 days from now - that I can assure you

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Today's run of the Euro is a perfect example of not being able to get the true "flavor" from the free maps on the official website. I get the full Euro (precip maps and all) from another source for free. Essentially, the Feb. 22 event is a light snow event as the main low over the Midwest occludes and energy gets strung out instead of transitioning into an East Coast low. However, a HECS type system then follows as a potent S/W comes through along the STJ...which would be our first true Miller A of the season. It runs into the block and throws out over 1.5 inches of QPF (all snow) from DC to NYC. Boston never gets into the action as the block pushes the system ENE once it hit out latitudes. Oh, and then there's an even more potent S/W developing in the Gulf at 240 Hr.

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Today's run of the Euro is a perfect example of not being able to get the true "flavor" from the free maps on the official website. I get the full Euro (precip maps and all) from another source for free. Essentially, the Feb. 22 event is a light snow event as the main low over the Midwest occludes and energy gets strung out instead of transitioning into an East Coast low. However, a HECS type system then follows as a potent S/W comes through along the STJ...which would be our first true Miller A of the season. It runs into the block and throws out over 1.5 inches of QPF (all snow) from DC to NYC. Boston never gets into the action as the block pushes the system ENE once it hit out latitudes. Oh, and then there's an even more potent S/W developing in the Gulf at 240 Hr.

 

 

Today's run of the Euro is a perfect example of not being able to get the true "flavor" from the free maps on the official website. I get the full Euro (precip maps and all) from another source for free. Essentially, the Feb. 22 event is a light snow event as the main low over the Midwest occludes and energy gets strung out instead of transitioning into an East Coast low. However, a HECS type system then follows as a potent S/W comes through along the STJ...which would be our first true Miller A of the season. It runs into the block and throws out over 1.5 inches of QPF (all snow) from DC to NYC. Boston never gets into the action as the block pushes the system ENE once it hit out latitudes. Oh, and then there's an even more potent S/W developing in the Gulf at 240 Hr.

kinda sounds like feb 1979, since a bit further north

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Today's run of the Euro is a perfect example of not being able to get the true "flavor" from the free maps on the official website. I get the full Euro (precip maps and all) from another source for free. Essentially, the Feb. 22 event is a light snow event as the main low over the Midwest occludes and energy gets strung out instead of transitioning into an East Coast low. However, a HECS type system then follows as a potent S/W comes through along the STJ...which would be our first true Miller A of the season. It runs into the block and throws out over 1.5 inches of QPF (all snow) from DC to NYC. Boston never gets into the action as the block pushes the system ENE once it hit out latitudes. Oh, and then there's an even more potent S/W developing in the Gulf at 240 Hr.

Yep, looks like there's going to be multiple shortwaves to work with in this upcoming pattern. 12z GGEM was a fairly good hit with the Feb 22 event and then is ready to destroy the east coast with a HECS day 10 

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Today's run of the Euro is a perfect example of not being able to get the true "flavor" from the free maps on the official website. I get the full Euro (precip maps and all) from another source for free. Essentially, the Feb. 22 event is a light snow event as the main low over the Midwest occludes and energy gets strung out instead of transitioning into an East Coast low. However, a HECS type system then follows as a potent S/W comes through along the STJ...which would be our first true Miller A of the season. It runs into the block and throws out over 1.5 inches of QPF (all snow) from DC to NYC. Boston never gets into the action as the block pushes the system ENE once it hit out latitudes. Oh, and then there's an even more potent S/W developing in the Gulf at 240 Hr.

If the block can set up, I'll be quite excited for an event-it seems that over the last few years we end with a bang whenever one of those sets up, whether it be Boxing Day 2010, 1/27/11, Sandy, Snowtober, even the November storm this fall. Not a guarantee, but our odds increase big time. Too bad we still have a week before this is a threat and a lot can change.

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Absolutely not. We need the next two weeks to see how it scores. Just yesterday it was giving sne 2ft of snow. It is def not in the same room as the euro

 

We know that it will be behind the Euro, but it will be interesting to see how it scores compared to the GFS.

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I think every 10 day forecast since December has said Major storm coming, this is the best setup all year. Then a few days later that falls apart, but wait, here's the new 10 day and this looks even better...wait, never mind...that's not going to happen either...but there are plenty more on the way.

Beginning of Feb - the storm this weekend is gonna be huge

Past few days - late next week/weekend gonna be a big hit

Now we're on to the next storm 10 days out...is someone just messing with these models to get everyone all hyped just to disappoint, lol

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The 18z GEFS are all over the place with this threat. All of them have it, but they all have widely different outcomes for it. Some deepen this low enough so that it cuts and it's a rain event. Others look like the 00z GFS from last night that gave us a nice snowstorm. Others are sheared like the operational.

Wide spread. Highlights a good deal of uncertainty at this stage, and that there are multiple potential outcomes on the table right now.

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I think every 10 day forecast since December has said Major storm coming, this is the best setup all year. Then a few days later that falls apart, but wait, here's the new 10 day and this looks even better...wait, never mind...that's not going to happen either...but there are plenty more on the way.

Beginning of Feb - the storm this weekend is gonna be huge

Past few days - late next week/weekend gonna be a big hit

Now we're on to the next storm 10 days out...is someone just messing with these models to get everyone all hyped just to disappoint, lol

 

 

Completely different H500 pattern. And last week, we only missed the super big totals because of timing of the phase and the sfc low went ENE. You certainly would not have wrote this post if we been buried with 34" of snow like New Haven got last week.

 

I do see your point about the models, but this is a different pattern and it offers promise for snow.

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I think every 10 day forecast since December has said Major storm coming, this is the best setup all year. Then a few days later that falls apart, but wait, here's the new 10 day and this looks even better...wait, never mind...that's not going to happen either...but there are plenty more on the way.

Beginning of Feb - the storm this weekend is gonna be huge

Past few days - late next week/weekend gonna be a big hit

Now we're on to the next storm 10 days out...is someone just messing with these models to get everyone all hyped just to disappoint, lol

 

If i had a dollar for everytime i heard this type of post, i'd be rich. Why would anyone call off a threat for next weekend just because the models weren't as impressive with it today? It's EIGHT days out

 

Look at the models and pattern and decide whether you want to buy into a storm for yourself. Models have always shown fantasy snowstorms this is nothing new... most of the time they don't verify. But with this upcoming pattern those chances go up. 

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You can see the models moved toward stronger blocking over Hudson Bay with the energy

getting sheared out underneath. So we'll probably see a weak or strung out system that 

can easily get suppressed down toward our south since it won't be very amplified.

But we'll have to monitor how far north the secondary actually gets going.

 

old

 

 

New

 

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What do we need in order for the confluence to weaken and not shear the system out as much? The way this is currently being modeled, the system doesn't look too impressive at the moment. Of course, things can change.

Ensembles all show a snowstorm - forget GFS at this point - follow the Euro.

 

Rossi

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