IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At least the gfs is recognizing that u can't slam a storm into a block. I would expect it to shift the storm further south and really blow up a secondary. The GFS has the energy coming in behind the main storm that really screws up the whole trough. I agree though, instead of forcing redevelopment it shears the system out. Highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lol 18 hours is still longer than probably 99% of our snowstorms. Also out on LI it started around 6-7pm and continued till early afternoon maybe 1-2pm. Roughly 20 hours or so blizzard of 1996.... 36 straight hours of snow. good luck ever seeing that again. that's like it snowing from right now (noon) and ending tomorrow night at midnight. that's sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I would ride with whatever the euro says, it's too far out for any specifics though. Oh and case in point about the gfs ramming storms into blocks, it does the same thing with the next storm in the long range. It drives a low north into a very strong block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I would ride with whatever the euro says, it's too far out for any specifics though. Oh and case in point about the gfs ramming storms into blocks, it does the same thing with the next storm in the long range. It drives a low north into a very strong block. Just take the strong blocking as a good sign. The long range pattern looks good for more storm chances. Storm of the century incoming at hr 384. What a block! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is the strongest all 3 indicies are forecasted to be this winter through the end of the month - a stronger neg nao - pos pna and neg ao forecasted http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Upgraded 12z GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Upgraded 12z GGEM: lol...on the 12z GGEM it snows from hrs 180 till 228...until this monster starts heading up the coast at day 10! http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GGEM is a pending HECS. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 10-20 day pattern just looks insanely beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GGEM is a pending HECS. Wow. It's one of the most wintry runs i've seen...even the mid-week system has a chance of bringing snow, especially to NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GGEM is a pending HECS. Wow. It's also close to if not a SECS for this storm. Pretty sweet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's also close to if not a SECS for this storm. Pretty sweet run. The fact that it was just updgraded gives it so much more credability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The fact that it was just updgraded gives it so much more credability. I'd caution that until we've had a chance to verify its accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is pure fantasy at this time. All of these threats can go downhill very quickly as we've seen with the weekend threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The fact that it was just updgraded gives it so much more credability. Absolutely not. We need the next two weeks to see how it scores. Just yesterday it was giving sne 2ft of snow. It is def not in the same room as the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is pure fantasy at this time. All of these threats can go downhill very quickly as we've seen with the weekend threat. The difference maker is the blocking that will be in place. It's amazing the difference that good blocking can bring you. If not for the blocking, we would just end up with a series of cutters and above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Absolutely not. We need the next two weeks to see how it scores. Just yesterday it was giving sne 2ft of snow. It is def not in the same room universe as the euro Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro has a nice storm in the Midwest, but it completely shears out the storm by the time it reaches our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro has a nice storm in the Midwest, but it completely shears out the storm by the time it reaches our area. Why is that? Is the blocking too strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Why is that? Is the blocking too strong? Not sure at all actually. It really has a potent storm in the Midwest but it barely has any precipitation for our area from this storm system by the time it reaches our region. Very weak system by the time it reaches our region as well. I don't think the blocking is responsible for te weakening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Why is that? Is the blocking too strong? Confluence from block. It's a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The trough behind it kills the amplification But that trough is turning into a major storm this run. Major block up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Confluence from block. It's a possibility So if we don't have a block, it cuts, if we do it dissipates, go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Monster storm at 216 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The block that shows up on the euro is pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingofQueens Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You can't really say anything this far out. Just be happy something is there and that it has time to change. And this is coming from a pessimist/skeptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Beautiful pattern. There's going to be plenty of threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'll say this, the indices as well as the development of a blocking pattern definitely increase our chance of at least one more big storm. Whether or not that will happen is highly questionable. It's def time to take a break from model watching though, if there's something 4-5 days from now, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Beautiful pattern. There's going to be plenty of threatsStormy and seasonably cold. Temps remain cold enough that when storms threaten us precip typeIs frozen. At least if you believe the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Monster storm at 216 hrs Monster storm at 216 hrs huh??? the h5 maps look avg at best..looks kinda blah at 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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