CooL Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif It is colder then the GFS at the 850 level and slightly south with the secondary compared to the GFS..other then not having access to QPF maps..what looks bad about the setup? It gets sheared out verbatim Wow, so much wishcasting in this thread. Too much Modelogy. Lol ok ice commander And what is modelogy? nice spelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow, so much wishcasting in this thread. Too much Modelogy. lol. The storm isn't for 170 hrs. What is your crystal ice ball saying will happen if we can't look at models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It gets sheared out verbatim Lol ok ice commander And what is modelogy? nice spelling It gets sheared out verbatim Lol ok ice commander And what is modelogy? nice spelling Looks similar to the GGEM (maybe that model has improved with the upgrade) and the GGEM kind of shows the same thing happening but at 180 + hrs out ..kind of have to look at the set up more then the specific details.. The GFS did not look that bad ..plenty of time to watch this one unfold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks similar to the GGEM (maybe that model has improved with the upgrade) and the GGEM kind of shows the same thing happening but at 180 + hrs out ..kind of have to look at the set up more then the specific details.. The GFS did not look that bad ..plenty of time to watch this one unfold.. Agree. All i know is that the setup being shown is favorable. The storm details wont be worked out until late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The Euro ensembles continue the theme of blocking and strong CAD with the 50/50 forcing energy underneath. Exact tracks and precip amounts are tricky from this far out, but we can see that the potential is there for a frozen event with the specific details coming later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You can see the storm being forced underneath the blocking now on the OP GFS and DGEX from early this morning http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/f180.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f186.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You can see the storm being forced underneath the blocking now on the OP GFS and DGEX from early this morning http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/f180.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f186.gif This is going to be a big storm not only for the east coast but across the whole country. Getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is going to be a big storm not only for the east coast but across the whole country. Getting excited. It could be a very close call for us depending on where it transfers, I'm not convinced the blocking will be strong enough to save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It could be a very close call for us depending on where it transfers, I'm not convinced the blocking will be strong enough to save us. It's a concern, but more so for the DC area. I think NYC north would have the best chances in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It could be a very close call for us depending on where it transfers, I'm not convinced the blocking will be strong enough to save us. Euro has the transfer way south of us. Ensembles look good. Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This reminds me a lot of PDII. Major over running followed by the coastal. Coastal was not that strong but it didn't need to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Weekend event is a weenie storm. This event is the one to watch. People are wasting their time with that crap for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Weekend event is a weenie storm. This event is the one to watch. People are wasting their time with that crap for the weekend. Well some thought the weekend storm could be a triple phaser and a KU so what makes this threat any different. It could just as easily bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This reminds me a lot of PDII. Major over running followed by the coastal. Coastal was not that strong but it didn't need to be. The 500mb setup is not even in the same ballpark or remotely close to PDII The only setup I've seen that resembled PDII was the Feb 4-6 2010 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 500mb setup is not even in the same ballpark or remotely close to PDII The only setup I've seen that resembled PDII was the Feb 4-6 2010 event I wasn't really following weather in 2003 like I am now, but was that not a major over running followed by a coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I wasn't really following weather in 2003 like I am now, but was that not a major over running followed by a coastal? The same idea yes. But take a look at the reanalysis it's a different look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I wasn't really following weather in 2003 like I am now, but was that not a major over running followed by a coastal? PDII is probably one of the more remarkable setups we will ever see http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2003/021518.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 500mb setup is not even in the same ballpark or remotely close to PDII The only setup I've seen that resembled PDII was the Feb 4-6 2010 event I agree. PDII had split flow, with ridge over the Rockies and elongated vortex over Eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 PDII is probably one of the more remarkable setups we will ever see http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2003/021518.png Gulf was just wide open there. So much moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thanks everyone for the info. I was in Florida for that storm. Went to the Daytona 500 that year. We wound up spending an extra 2 days because we couldn't get a flight home into KSWF. It took us nearly 2 hours to dig the car out in the parking lot with our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I agree. PDII had split flow, with ridge over the Rockies and elongated vortex over Eastern Canada. Yeah, I did a reanalysis of that event and the resounding thought throughout my work, was how remarkable that event really was. February 4-6 was so exciting for me, despite the fact that we were on the wrong end of a sharp cutoff, because I never thought we would see a set up like PDII again. Feb 4-6 2010 was basically PDII "lite" version as far as the major features go including the blocking high/confluence to the north. PDII http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2003/021518.png 2/5/10 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/020500.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 the only problem I had with PDII was that it took a long time for the precip to move into my backyard. the H was pretty strong and really suppressed the precip for 6-8hrs. i dont recall it being a long lasting storm as most mention either. I remember getting back from a soccer game at 3pm and it still not snowing, it did start shortly thereafter. Then the next day, the last measurable snow was around 10am. i guess 18hrs is not bad though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 the only problem I had with PDII was that it took a long time for the precip to move into my backyard. the H was pretty strong and really suppressed the precip for 6-8hrs. i dont recall it being a long lasting storm as most mention either. I remember getting back from a soccer game at 3pm and it still not snowing, it did start shortly thereafter. Then the next day, the last measurable snow was around 10am. i guess 18hrs is not bad though... Lol 18 hours is still longer than probably 99% of our snowstorms. Also out on LI it started around 6-7pm and continued till early afternoon maybe 1-2pm. Roughly 20 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lol 18 hours is still longer than probably 99% of our snowstorms. Also out on LI it started around 6-7pm and continued till early afternoon maybe 1-2pm. Roughly 20 hours or so true...long lasting to me is 24hrs+ but whatever. like i said, i lost about 6-8hrs of precip so that would made it "long lasting" in my eyes. still an all time great storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 the morning of the PDII storm it was eight degrees with cloudy skies...I was on the low end of the snow totals but it still was a great storm...Both PD storms had a strong arctic high to work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What a block on the GFS at 174 hours. Squashes the storm over the lakes. It develops a secondary but OTS. One of the more odd 500mb setups that I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gfs looks really screwy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS sheers out system lol..first it tries to bring a low into a block,which will never happen..then it wants to develop a secondary but takes it out to sea..totally unlikely..goes to show how much the NCEP needs to do something with this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At least the gfs is recognizing that u can't slam a storm into a block. I would expect it to shift the storm further south and really blow up a secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What a block on the GFS at 174 hours. Squashes the storm over the lakes. It develops a secondary but OTS. One of the more odd 500mb setups that I can recall. At this point my least concern is this going into the lakes, models are all in agreeement about that 50/50 low...more worried about the storm being sheared to pieces by the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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