IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I spoke a little too soon about the GFS, it actually throws a little bit of snow back towards Springfield and more for southern Maine. Still a far, far cry from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The 12z GFS is a complete non event. Not only is it warm but it's only 0.25"-0.50" area wide. The GFS backed off and moved toward something a little further SE like the Euro was showing earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro looks like another step back for the New England crew, mostly just a lot of front-end type overrunning precip that stays moderate and the CCB forms too late. Maybe a few inches in Boston this run it looks like. For us, the city and east look to have a moderate rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 How cold does the 950 need to be to produce sleet. It goes below 32 here between 30-33 hrs. not much more falls a little more than .10-.25 dependeng on when in those hrs it changes Ideally you would want 925mb to be around -2c if 850s are between 0 and 2c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro looks like another step back for the New England crew, mostly just a lot of front-end type overrunning precip that stays moderate and the CCB forms too late. Maybe a few inches in Boston this run it looks like. For us, the city and east look to have a moderate rain event. This looks to be either a non event or rain. This does not look conducive for snow for Upton's warning area. The only potential would be from dynamics of a bombing out system, which appears unlikely at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This looks to be either a non event or rain. This does not look conducive for snow for Upton's warning area. The only potential would be from dynamics of a bombing out system, which appears unlikely at this moment. We've been out of it since day one. I knew to give up on it when the Euro killed our chance like 4 days ago. Upton's area doesn't do well with a huge primary over the Great Lakes and a slow developing coastal. The people with some chance left mainly reside from Worcester on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 We've been out of it since day one. I knew to give up on it when the Euro killed our chance like 4 days ago. Upton's area doesn't do well with a huge primary over the Great Lakes and a slow developing coastal. The people with some chance left mainly reside from Worcester on east. Exactly, when that primary hangs on into the Great Lakes, Upton is significantly influenced by the Marine Layer. Combine that with a 'lazy' coastal and well the flowers will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Based on the precip already rapidly moving in from the west and temps in the mid 30's with lower dews I think even the coast might be in for some surprise snow/sleet on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM is now on board for a low qpf event for most.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm actually getting some flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 A steady, but light, snow falling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 18z gfs way se for the costal. Light rain for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 18z gfs way se for the costal. Light rain for all. It's laughable how every storm other than the blizzard turned into such a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ330 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-231000-/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.130223T0000Z-130223T1500Z//O.NEW.KPHI.ZR.Y.0003.130223T0300Z-130223T1700Z/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG330 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EST SATURDAY......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZINGRAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEENCANCELLED.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 0.10 INCHES.* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS INTO NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 80.* TIMING...SCATTERED WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY AS A COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET. THEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...ICING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's laughable how every storm other than the blizzard turned into such a fail. Check out the almost comical differences on the NAM from last nights 00z run to todays 18z run valid at the same time 00z: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_0z/f60.gif 18z: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_18z/f42.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Check out the almost comical differences on the NAM from last nights 00z run to todays 18z run valid at the same time 00z: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_0z/f60.gif 18z: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_18z/f42.gif The NAM has been complete garbage this winter, and that's putting it nicely. But most other models have also been not progressive enough 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Its crazy how much the models changed within 12 hours when the storm was this close. - It seems like you can never take an option off the table anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Nice! Light snow! Stoked on my last minute call... Usually we cannot buy a flake here in this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Light snow here in Liberty NY but radar echos show it pasing us soon. What is the projected QPF for liberty and if we stay all snow what can I get here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On and off snow groupel sleet mix here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 If my eyes are correct, the new NAM looks like a a non event compared to 24-36 hours ago. Maybe some light mix in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Wow, what a horrendous run for the Boston crew. Maybe some light snow with an inverted trough (that 90% of the time doesn't pan out) and that's it. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Wow, what a horrendous run for the Boston crew. Maybe some light snow with an inverted trough (that 90% of the time doesn't pan out) and that's it. Ouch. You should see the HPC heavy snowfall probabilities for Day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like some snow heading towards NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Its been flurrying here for the past couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 some flurries now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Light snow in Port Jeff Station now...cars starting to turn white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Same here, even some pavement is coated, It looks like we may get measurable snow out of this shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like a little LI Sound enhancement is going on...some 25 dbz echoes overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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