snywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 348 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013 CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-222100- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 348 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO INTERIOR CONNECTICUT SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST AT AN INCH OR LESS. AS THE LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-84...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE RAIN- SNOW LINE. LASTLY...THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FALL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THUS...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE A MODERATE 6 INCH SNOWFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18z NAM still gives the far interior 1-3" of front end snow..Anyone south of central orange county is all rain on the nam. Maybe pine bush, walden, or a place like port jervis that has elevation might see some snow before it goes to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Further North around the Catskills (Liberty NY) where I'm headed to this time tomorrow at 1500 feet in elevation can i get all snow and is half a foot possible there? I guess model runs have a good handle by now and a foot up there is out of the picture, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Further North around the Catskills (Liberty NY) where I'm headed to this time tomorrow at 1500 feet in elevation can i get all snow and is half a foot possible there? I guess model runs have a good handle by now and a foot up there is out of the picture, right? The initial warm push and then dryslot look to come fast even up in the Catskills-maybe some snow, but nothing major by any means. The real stuff will be well east. Even the Berkshires might get the shaft here due to the coastal low taking over way too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Can anyone please tell me what total qpf could be for kmsv from tomm night until sunday? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Can anyone please tell me what total qpf could be for kmsv from tomm night until sunday? Thanks About .06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Anyone looking for a nice LOL should check out the 21z ARW, pretty much a complete strung out garbage storm that just spreads scattered moderate precip around and barely any enhancement at all for SNE. Luckily it's an awful model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 0z NAM looks interesting again for the far NW burbs.. This model is one big LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 0z NAM looks interesting again for the far NW burbs.. This model is one big LOLHow does the QPF look? The 18z NAM had a total 0.76 for KSWF and 0.3" of snow on the front end.Edit. There was a 00z NAM QPF map posted in the New england thread. It's showing from 1.0" - 1.25" for Orange county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 How does the QPF look? The 18z NAM had a total 0.76 for KSWF and 0.3" of snow on the front end. Alot wetter for up here. Dryslot cuts through NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 How does the QPF look? The 18z NAM had a total 0.76 for KSWF and 0.3" of snow on the front end. Edit. There was a 00z NAM QPF map posted in the New england thread. It's showing from 1.0" - 1.25" for Orange county. here u go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 here u go.. Thanks, we'll see what the other modles do in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Are things looking better/whiter for the Western Catskills from tomorrow night on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Are things looking better/whiter for the Western Catskills from tomorrow night on? NAM was a better run for the Catskills but the GFS still dries it up very fast and is quite warm. Very little snow west of New England on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The 12z NAM verbatim is probably a wet coating for the far NW burbs at the onset and the end. Temps begin to crash up that way just as the precip begins to depart. The NAM also keeps the heaviest rain from about the city east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The 12z NAM verbatim is probably a wet coating for the far NW burbs at the onset and the end. Temps begin to crash up that way just as the precip begins to depart. The NAM also keeps the heaviest rain from about the city east. Looks like its close to giving us a bunch of sleet out this way. 950 below freezing most of the time. just not sure if one level is enough to make sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looks like its close to giving us a bunch of sleet out this way. 950 below freezing most of the time. just not sure if one level is enough to make sleet. It looks pretty snowy for the northwest corner of Orange County especially...and then there's a period of sleet showing up on the data for the elevated areas of Northern NJ beginning around 22z Saturday and continuing for an hour or two before precipitation shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Precip has been cut by 75% since the 0z run.. Shows .25-.50 for Orange county where last nights run had 1.25"+ countywide.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Precip has been cut by 75% since the 0z run.. Shows .25-.50 for Orange county where last nights run had 1.25"+ countywide.. The NAM has been very poor this year with amplifying shortwaves and tucking surface lows in too far to the northwest. The run 24 hours before the February 8th storm was one of the worst I have ever seen at that lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The NAM has been very poor this year with amplifying shortwaves and tucking surface lows in too far to the northwest. The run 24 hours before the February 8th storm was one of the worst I have ever seen at that lead time. What was cause such a poor performance? The NAM has been absolutely horrendous this yr. \ For the Feb 8th storm it had the jackpot of 25-30" in Sussex/Passaic/Orange counties inside 24 hrs of the start of the event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It looks pretty snowy for the northwest corner of Orange County especially...and then there's a period of sleet showing up on the data for the elevated areas of Northern NJ beginning around 22z Saturday and continuing for an hour or two before precipitation shuts off. How cold does the 950 need to be to produce sleet. It goes below 32 here between 30-33 hrs. not much more falls a little more than .10-.25 dependeng on when in those hrs it changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What was cause such a poor performance? The NAM has been absolutely horrendous this yr. \ For the Feb 8th storm it had the jackpot of 25-30" from Sussex/Passaic/Orange counties inside 24 hrs of the start of the event.. Follow the overall pattern, which is progressive and balls-to-the-wall fast. Given the history of storms we've had this year, once models started cutting back on precip west and north of the city you know that's the way to go. This doesn't look like a big event anymore except for maybe eastern MA. The storm just has no time to form any kind of mature CCB until it's just about gone. And the primary acts to warm us up and cut the precip off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The 12z GFS is a complete non event. Not only is it warm but it's only 0.25"-0.50" area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The 12z GFS is a complete non event. Not only is it warm but it's only 0.25"-0.50" area wide. Wow, way south and east from the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wow, way south and east from the previous runs. Follow the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wow, way south and east from the previous runs. The writing was on the wall yesterday. I'm sure the New England 's are on suicide watch. The focus continues to shift towards the next system being stronger and more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Follow the pattern. I hope it verifies because I don't want a rainy weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Per the paid maps on storm vista through hr 60, accumulating snows are restricted to far northern VT, NH and extreme western Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Per the paid maps on storm vista through hr 60, accumulating snows are restricted to far northern VT, NH and extreme western Maine. Ukie is way different than the GFS. It shows a nice snowfall for SNE-CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ukie is way different than the GFS. It shows a nice snowfall for SNE-CNE. I'm not sure what's been worse this winter so far, the NAM or the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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