MJO812 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Too bad the airmass is lousy. The coastal is in a nice spot on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 12z GFS is all rain. For everyone. NW burbs might end with a brief period of wet snow, meaning 40 miles or more NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 12z GFS restricts accumulating snows to interior central New England, from about Albany to central Mass still does decent. 4-8" of snow still possible out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12Z GFS through 51 has much less of that weird warm tongue into western NY state that's been on all previous runs...not sure what effect if any that has on us, but just something I noticed. It's not going to matter at all for us. This is pretty much decided southwest of maybe Danbury and south of I-84 through NY. The question now is mostly how quick do the mid level low centers develop so that eastern CT, RI, and Mass get destroyed. Maybe if the coastal develops faster it can help more of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It's not going to matter at all for us. This is pretty much decided southwest of maybe Danbury and south of I-84 through NY. The question now is mostly how quick do the mid level low centers develop so that eastern CT, RI, and Mass get destroyed. Maybe if the coastal develops faster it can help more of CT. This is starting to look like a northern New England special with 4-8" of wet snow possible from about the CT/MA border northward into Maine, and it looks nothing like the blizzard that was being depicted yesterday. I'm sure there are some New England 's on suicide alert today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This is starting to look like a northern New England special with 4-8" of wet snow possible from about the CT/MA border northward into Maine, and it looks nothing like the blizzard that was being depicted yesterday. I'm sure there are some New England 's on suicide alert today. The faster developing 700/850 lows would be huge for Boston and even down to the Canal. NAM and GFS crush them at the end of the storm even if they lose some to rain/mix. The I-495 corridor looks like the best spot to be up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We're over an inch of rain this run, which has been pretty consistent. If we had a better airmass in place the interior would probably be looking at its biggest snowfall of the season. Can't win them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The faster developing 700/850 lows would be huge for Boston and even down to the Canal. NAM and GFS crush them at the end of the storm even if they lose some to rain/mix. The I-495 corridor looks like the best spot to be up there. 12z GFS snow maps are only indicating around 1-3" of accumulation for Boston proper and much less further south and east. Per the zoomed in maps on storm vista, it looks like the 850 freezing line stays well to the south but the surface torches. Keeps the surface freezing line all the way up into northern New England and doesn't cross Boston until hr 90 when the precip is already gone. This is just the 12z GFS verbatim, I think Boston will still do okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 12z GFS is all rain. For everyone. NW burbs might end with a brief period of wet snow, meaning 40 miles or more NW of the city.It actually looked pretty good yesterday for orange and northwest sussex, now even they are all rain and like you said, maybe they end with a short period of snow showers or light wet snow, but zero accumulation. What a difference a day makes in modeling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It actually looked pretty good yesterday for orange and northwest sussex, now even they are all rain and like you said, maybe they end with a short period of snow showers or light wet snow, but zero accumulation. What a difference a day makes in modeling... This is quickly turning into a Mass/S NH,VT special centered on I-90. EVen the Catskills look like they're done after looking nice yesterday. You have to head up to Albany to really be sure it's snow and a decent amount of it. The dryslot looks like it gets them in a hurry too. Progressive patterns suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I feel like this one is going to surprise us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I feel like this one is going to surprise us Are you basing this on anything tangible or you just "feel" it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro is weak and further south east. Really not much snow this run for anyone. Nam stands alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro is weak and further south east. Really not much snow this run for anyone. Nam stands alone. Why is it so warm with a track so far South and East? Weird being that it's still Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Why is it so warm with a track so far South and East? Weird being that it's still Feb. Not a very strong high pressure and the air mass is trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 12z Euro is a complete non event for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I would assume the ukmet and ggem are showing nada as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I would assume the ukmet and ggem are showing nada as well? The Ukmet is very warm. Looks like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like Uptons early estimates is 2-4" for the NW burbs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The Ukmet is very warm. Looks like the GFS Thank you. I guess there's always next week, looks good on the euro for now, finally got to see the ggem, it's bad too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like Uptons early estimates is 2-4" for the NW burbs..What are they basing this on? No model is showing this, not even the nam, they all either have a non event or all rain until you get to albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What are they basing this on? No model is showing this, not even the nam, they all either have a non event or all rain until you get to albany NAM & GFS does give Orange County some snow overnight fri... Maybe 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What are they basing this on? No model is showing this, not even the nam, they all either have a non event or all rain until you get to albany Maybe they're assuming some snow for the back end, but the front end looks horrendous for about all of Upton's CWA. Maybe the northern edges will get some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Maybe they're assuming some snow for the back end, but the front end looks horrendous for about all of Upton's CWA. Maybe the northern edges will get some sleet.I can maybe see northern orange county, maybe, but over an inch in rockland? I think not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What are they basing this on? No model is showing this, not even the nam, they all either have a non event or all rain until you get to albany The NAM def shows some snow overnight for the far interior.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro ensembles may give Orange county a bit on the back end. An inch or two..and maybe an inch or two on the front end too early Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't think it'll be much but there is a chance of even a couple inches just NW of the major cities. I think there'll be some more frozen than currently forecasted with a solid snowstorm interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't think it'll be much but there is a chance of even a couple inches just NW of the major cities. I think there'll be some more frozen than currently forecasted with a solid snowstorm interior You said that before you think it will surprise us too...what about the setup or anything makes you think the models are overplaying the warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Don't waste your time looking at the 18z GFS for the system this weekend. Both the surface and 850 freezing lines are all the way up into MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You said that before you think it will surprise us too...what about the setup or anything makes you think the models are overplaying the warmth? 18z NAM still gives the far interior 1-3" of front end snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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