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Febuary 22-24


Chrisjmcjr

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12Z GFS through 51 has much less of that weird warm tongue into western NY state that's been on all previous runs...not sure what effect if any that has on us, but just something I noticed.

It's not going to matter at all for us. This is pretty much decided southwest of maybe Danbury and south of I-84 through NY. The question now is mostly how quick do the mid level low centers develop so that eastern CT, RI, and Mass get destroyed. Maybe if the coastal develops faster it can help more of CT.

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It's not going to matter at all for us. This is pretty much decided southwest of maybe Danbury and south of I-84 through NY. The question now is mostly how quick do the mid level low centers develop so that eastern CT, RI, and Mass get destroyed. Maybe if the coastal develops faster it can help more of CT.

This is starting to look like a northern New England special with 4-8" of wet snow possible from about the CT/MA border northward into Maine, and it looks nothing like the blizzard that was being depicted yesterday. I'm sure there are some New England :weenie: 's on suicide alert today.

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This is starting to look like a northern New England special with 4-8" of wet snow possible from about the CT/MA border northward into Maine, and it looks nothing like the blizzard that was being depicted yesterday. I'm sure there are some New England :weenie: 's on suicide alert today.

The faster developing 700/850 lows would be huge for Boston and even down to the Canal. NAM and GFS crush them at the end of the storm even if they lose some to rain/mix. The I-495 corridor looks like the best spot to be up there.

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The faster developing 700/850 lows would be huge for Boston and even down to the Canal. NAM and GFS crush them at the end of the storm even if they lose some to rain/mix. The I-495 corridor looks like the best spot to be up there.

12z GFS snow maps are only indicating around 1-3" of accumulation for Boston proper and much less further south and east. Per the zoomed in maps on storm vista, it looks like the 850 freezing line stays well to the south but the surface torches. Keeps the surface freezing line all the way up into northern New England and doesn't cross Boston until hr 90 when the precip is already gone. This is just the 12z GFS verbatim, I think Boston will still do okay.

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The 12z GFS is all rain. For everyone. NW burbs might end with a brief period of wet snow, meaning 40 miles or more NW of the city.

It actually looked pretty good yesterday for orange and northwest sussex, now even they are all rain and like you said, maybe they end with a short period of snow showers or light wet snow, but zero accumulation. What a difference a day makes in modeling...
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It actually looked pretty good yesterday for orange and northwest sussex, now even they are all rain and like you said, maybe they end with a short period of snow showers or light wet snow, but zero accumulation. What a difference a day makes in modeling...

This is quickly turning into a Mass/S NH,VT special centered on I-90. EVen the Catskills look like they're done after looking nice yesterday. You have to head up to Albany to really be sure it's snow and a decent amount of it. The dryslot looks like it gets them in a hurry too. :axe:

 

Progressive patterns suck.

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I don't think it'll be much but there is a chance of even a couple inches just NW of the major cities. I think there'll be some more frozen than currently forecasted with a solid snowstorm interior

You said that before you think it will surprise us too...what about the setup or anything makes you think the models are overplaying the warmth?

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