sussexcountyobs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You should be fine up there in Sullivan County. 12"+ looks very good Orange county may end up with a wide range.. Still 60 hrs to go and things WILL change.. Whats your thoughts in Sussex Co. NJ at elevations of 1200'+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Whats your thoughts in Sussex Co. NJ at elevations of 1200'+? Gonna be close as this looks more like a latitude dependent storm. Still till early for amounts but anyone in Orange/Sussex/W Passaic/Putnam counties should keep a close eye on it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Whats your thoughts in Sussex Co. NJ at elevations of 1200'+? you will get front end snow but go to a mix and than rain. your elevation wont help with the 850 going above 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 you will get front end snow but go to a mix and than rain. your elevation wont help with the 850 going above 0Thanks. I dont know much, so I appreciate you guys who do. Can you explain real quick the definitions of 850's, 540's etc. I hear them mentioned alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks. I dont know much, so I appreciate you guys who do. Can you explain real quick the definitions of 850's, 540's etc. I hear them mentioned alot. Im not sure if this is discussed there or not, but the meteorology 101 section has lots of great info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks. I dont know much, so I appreciate you guys who do. Can you explain real quick the definitions of 850's, 540's etc. I hear them mentioned alot. 850 is a level at about 5000 feet or so that is a critical layer for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks. I dont know much, so I appreciate you guys who do. Can you explain real quick the definitions of 850's, 540's etc. I hear them mentioned alot. more detailed if u want to read it 850mb in forecasting winter weather So what's the deal with 850mb? In the winter, you have to look at the layers from the surface up to around 700mb to determine the type of precip you will get at the surface - the most important of these usually being the 850mb layer. Above 500-700mb, the temperatures are typically below freezing year-round. If 850mb and higher are below freezing, snow can develop and begin falling through the boundary layer. If the surface (boundary layer) is above freezing and 850mb is below freezing, snow will usually melt before it reaches the ground (as rain), or if it makes it to the ground will melt quickly. If the boundary layer is also below freezing, the snow can make it to the ground and stick. In many cases, falling precip will bring some of the 850mb temps down to the boundary layer, causing it to cool. So even if the surface is above freezing, heavy snow falling from a very cold 850mb layer can cool the boundary layer below freezing in a relatively short time. It's almost like dropping trillions of little ice cubes down into a huge cooler. Conversely, if 850mb is above freezing and the boundary layer is below freezing, liquid raindrops falling into the boundary layer (or partially melted snowflakes) will either freeze into ice pellets before reaching the ground (sleet) or will freeze on contact with the ground (freezing rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hr 72 gfs rain up to ct/mass boarder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not as amp this run and warmer. Raining close to orh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Rain gets close to se nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Less amp and no phase this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 H5 opens up at 54 and results in a weaker storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 H5 opens up at 54 and results in a weaker storm. GGEM and Euro are similiar, although the Euro is a little more stronger than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hr 72 gfs rain up to ct/mass boarder Perhaps this is what orh was talking about ? but certainly isn't u rooting for rain up that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The models not only trended warmer overnight, but also trended east and weaker. I think Boston still does well though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Boston/Mass another 12-18" storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Boston northward gets crushed on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 if the NAM is too warm then NW of NYC say 25-30 its not so bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 if the NAM is too warm then NW of NYC say 25-30 its not so bad... It's warm around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It's warm around the area.Yea even northwest of nyc is rain, the entire metro area is too warm per the nam, and the qpf rates and lifting is not going to be strong enough to dynamically cool down to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It's warm around the area. It's warm around the area. I know its warm but i am saying if it too warm which alot of the time it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yea even northwest of nyc is rain, the entire metro area is too warm per the nam, and the qpf rates and lifting is not going to be strong enough to dynamically cool down to the surface Agree. Not good for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 if the NAM is too warm then NW of NYC say 25-30 its not so bad... The mid level lows develop too late for almost all of us and the primary is too powerful. Even for much of CT, the precip is over before the cold air can work back in. This isn't a storm for our subforum. Adjust the blizzard about 100 miles NE and that's about what you get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I know its warm but i am saying if it too warm which alot of the time it is.I don't like the nam, but all of the other models show it being too warm as well, so it fits the other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yea even northwest of nyc is rain, the entire metro area is too warm per the nam, and the qpf rates and lifting is not going to be strong enough to dynamically cool down to the surface Look where the 700/850 lows develop and close off, and how far NE that happens. North of that is where strong lift occurs, cold air is forced down due to dynamics, and very heavy snow breaks out. It pretty much becomes another storm at that point. West and south of that has to deal with the dryslot. In keeping with the horrendously progressive/Nina pattern this winter, this happens way too late for just about anybody in this subforum. Even Hartford looks like they get the shaft for the most part. Face it-winter is pretty much over for us unless we can develop a blocking regime which can slow the pattern down and stop these primaries from taking over. This is eastern New England's pattern for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Look where the 700/850 lows develop and close off, and how far NE that happens. North of that is where strong lift occurs, cold air is forced down due to dynamics, and very heavy snow breaks out. It pretty much becomes another storm at that point. West and south of that has to deal with the dryslot. In keeping with the horrendously progressive/Nina pattern this winter, this happens way too late for just about anybody in this subforum. Even Hartford looks like they get the shaft for the most part. Face it-winter is pretty much over for us unless we can develop a blocking regime which can slow the pattern down and stop these primaries from taking over. This is eastern New England's pattern for sure.I agree yes, the storm deepens too late and in the wrong spot to get us into the unstable convective banding that would "drop down" the cold aloft to the surface. The synoptic pattern is horrid right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Look where the 700/850 lows develop and close off, and how far NE that happens. North of that is where strong lift occurs, cold air is forced down due to dynamics, and very heavy snow breaks out. It pretty much becomes another storm at that point. West and south of that has to deal with the dryslot. In keeping with the horrendously progressive/Nina pattern this winter, this happens way too late for just about anybody in this subforum. Even Hartford looks like they get the shaft for the most part. Face it-winter is pretty much over for us unless we can develop a blocking regime which can slow the pattern down and stop these primaries from taking over. This is eastern New England's pattern for sure. well congrats to them i guess LOL..... they might end up with over 100 inches in spots if the pattern keeps up. Some places have over 60" already. BTW any chance North of the city to get a couple inches or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 well congrats to them i guess LOL..... they might end up with over 100 inches in spots if the pattern keeps up. Some places have over 60" already. BTW any chance North of the city to get a couple inches or no? Probably a good if not very good chance Boston ends up with 3X or more Central Park's total for the winter. In 07-08 Boston ended with something like 4 or 5 times what Central Park had and we're in a very similar regime now. NAM nailed them with 2"+ liquid, almost all snow this run. I wouldn't be confident in much snow unless you're in Hartford or northeast. West of the city gets screwed by the primary and late-developing low. This is yet another north and east snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12Z GFS through 51 has much less of that weird warm tongue into western NY state that's been on all previous runs...not sure what effect if any that has on us, but just something I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12Z GFS through 51 has much less of that weird warm tongue into western NY state that's been on all previous runs...not sure what effect if any that has on us, but just something I noticed. And the answer is none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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