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Febuary 22-24


Chrisjmcjr

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Looks like the 18z GFS might be trying to lose this storm all together. Through hr 69, not much going on.

 

Edit: Hr 72 broad low pressure forming over the Carolinas. Hr 75 surface low in eastern VA.

 

Decent front end thump hours 69-72 from I-80 north and east. By hour 78 we're all rain. Including the far northwest folks.

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DT

 

as the Midwest Low dies off the 2ndary reforms SAT over the SE States... tracks over far eastern VA.. across the Delmarva and close to Cape Cod/ the " benchmark" area ( 40n and 70w) by Sunday am. This coastal track COMBINED with a weakening HIGH to the northeast... that has "old" cold air ... and that is weay too far east.. will allow low level snow to rain over NJ NYC long Island much of CT RI and eastern Mass.

several Inches could fall over southern CT BEFORE the Mix or changeover and most of INTERIOR SE NY will stay all snow or mixed then go back to snow... northern CT all of mass up to Worcester stays all snow as does all of eastern NY NH VT and Maine. 12-24" are POSSIBLE in these areas... and western and central Mass intom southern NH 24"+ is also Possible.

BOSTON mixes for 6 hrs but does NOT go over to all/ Plain rain."

 

 
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We have three distinct schools of thought on this storm, the ECMWF camp (low offshore and moving into the BM), and the GFS/GGEM camp (low on the coast with weakening high moving into the North Atlantic). Then we have NAM and few other models somewhere in the middle where the storm starts out almost right on the coast, the high is moving out, but the low turns to the e or e-ne as it nears the benchmark and enough cold air works its way into its circulation as it does so. It will take another few run cycles to totally nail down which kind of solution is more realistic with this event. Regardless, the Euro is advertising below normal temps and the potential of storminess down the road with an active +PNA pattern and plenty of high latitude blocking while the GFS has the upper low over the Great Lakes dominating keeping most of the action out to sea.

WX/PT

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