Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 New NAM might put down 1-3"/2-4" on the front end for many...cold air lingers a little longer with precip than prior runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Through hr 84, keep in mind storm is still ongoing, shows 1-3" of snow from northern Morris County into northern Weschester. 3-6" for northern Orange County. Maybe 4-8" for the far northern Poconos. Warning snows for Sullivan County north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z NAM is a little snowier for the far interior.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It could be noted that the 15z SREF dominant precip maps indicate all snow anywhere from Orange County north, west and east, until you get to Cape Cod. And about 0.10" front end thump fronzen from about I-78 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Maybe the start of a cold trend? 18z gfs up next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z NAM Hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Maybe the start of a cold trend? 18z gfs up next!If it wasn't the nam showing this, I'd say maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z NAM Hr84 You still need to be 50-75 miles northwest of the city to have a shot at anything more than a small front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 ahh, so close here in the Eastern Poconos to a decent event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Maybe the start of a cold trend? 18z gfs up next! The problem I see here is a lousy antecendant airmass. Not sure how we get around that unless the low takes a perfect path and really dumps some serious QPF overhead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 If it wasn't the nam showing this, I'd say maybe. If we were less than a day out I would say no way, but we still have a ton of time to go. Only 13-15 more model runs to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 You still need to be 50-75 miles northwest of the city to have a shot at anything more than a small front end thump. I know... My post are not for NYC east crew lol.. They are for the far interior folk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 ahh, so close here in the Eastern Poconos to a decent event! The 18z NAM gives you warning level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I know... My post are not for NYC east crew lol.. They are for the far interior folk I figured, this is a case where even I'll be mostly rain. You really need to be outside of this sub-forum before you can feel comfortable about your chances with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 18z NAM gives you warning level snows. Decent front dump, we switch over eventually then back to snow once the 850's crash s.e as the slp tracks N.E. Def advisory level without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Although imo, it's pure foolish to dissect thermal boundaries 3.5 to 4 days out, especially on the Nam lol. This is a fine line we're walking for the far interior. I would feel quite more comfortable if this strengthened a bit earlier or was a tad east given my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I know this doesn't mean much but nice to look at nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looks like the 18z GFS might be trying to lose this storm all together. Through hr 69, not much going on. Edit: Hr 72 broad low pressure forming over the Carolinas. Hr 75 surface low in eastern VA. Decent front end thump hours 69-72 from I-80 north and east. By hour 78 we're all rain. Including the far northwest folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 84 is rain from orh south. This run is closer to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z GFS continues to favor the corridor from Albany to Springfield. This run is a bit drier for central and southern NJ as they get dry slotted some due to the low tracking very close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Brings it inside the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z GFS continues to favor the corridor from Albany to Springfield. This run is a bit drier for central and southern NJ as they get dry slotted some due to the low tracking very close to the coast.Yea, per this run, even orange county turns to all rain, pretty ugly overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think Im going to have to head up to my uncles place at 2000 feet in NE PA. (Susquehanna County) If it doesn't stay snow there I would be shocked! Looks like the end of the little snow left around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 DT as the Midwest Low dies off the 2ndary reforms SAT over the SE States... tracks over far eastern VA.. across the Delmarva and close to Cape Cod/ the " benchmark" area ( 40n and 70w) by Sunday am. This coastal track COMBINED with a weakening HIGH to the northeast... that has "old" cold air ... and that is weay too far east.. will allow low level snow to rain over NJ NYC long Island much of CT RI and eastern Mass. several Inches could fall over southern CT BEFORE the Mix or changeover and most of INTERIOR SE NY will stay all snow or mixed then go back to snow... northern CT all of mass up to Worcester stays all snow as does all of eastern NY NH VT and Maine. 12-24" are POSSIBLE in these areas... and western and central Mass intom southern NH 24"+ is also Possible. BOSTON mixes for 6 hrs but does NOT go over to all/ Plain rain." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We have three distinct schools of thought on this storm, the ECMWF camp (low offshore and moving into the BM), and the GFS/GGEM camp (low on the coast with weakening high moving into the North Atlantic). Then we have NAM and few other models somewhere in the middle where the storm starts out almost right on the coast, the high is moving out, but the low turns to the e or e-ne as it nears the benchmark and enough cold air works its way into its circulation as it does so. It will take another few run cycles to totally nail down which kind of solution is more realistic with this event. Regardless, the Euro is advertising below normal temps and the potential of storminess down the road with an active +PNA pattern and plenty of high latitude blocking while the GFS has the upper low over the Great Lakes dominating keeping most of the action out to sea. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z NAM continues the colder trend for Orange County... Good amount of snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z NAM continues the colder trend for Orange County... Good amount of snow this run So up by Liberty NY, when would be the brunt? I'm getting there by 6PM leaving Sunday sime time, unless I have to extend to Monday. What is the potential there at 1500 ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 So up by Liberty NY, when would be the brunt? I'm getting there by 6PM leaving Sunday sime time, unless I have to extend to Monday. What is the potential there at 1500 ft? Looks like it starts around noon Sat and ends over night sat into sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like it starts around noon Sat and ends over night sat into sun Potential for you in Middletown and me in Liberty if all goes well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Potential for you in Middletown and me in Liberty if all goes well? You should be fine up there in Sullivan County. 12"+ looks very good Orange county may end up with a wide range.. Still 60 hrs to go and things WILL change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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