IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 hr 78 very broad low pressure area over the SE states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 84, low pressure touching Cape May, NJ. Moderate rain for us. Wet snow from about High point north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 90 looks identical to gfs. Gfs has done well with this. Cny getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 90 sub 1000mb low south of Long Island. It's weaker than the GFS. Southern New England does well. Orange County probably sees a decent amount of frozen this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This is a nice setup for a paste bomb from Central NY to Interior New England. The antecedent airmass is awful and most people in our area aside from elevated NW NJ/Southeast NY have very little chance of seeing anything noteworthy other than a period of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 96 it's moving out. Western Mass gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 90 sub 1000mb low south of Long Island. It's weaker than the GFS. Southern New England does well. Orange County probably sees a decent amount of frozen this run.Yea weaker storm on the euro, but similar to the gfs, looks like a hair further north with the snow/rain line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 In the end the Euro is about the same as the GFS for 99% of us. Around 1" of rain. Slightly more northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 In the end the Euro is about the same as the GFS for 99% of us. Around 1" of rain. Slightly more northeast.How does the coastal plain around Boston do? Mixing issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro , much warmer than last 2 days . The GFS did better with this 5 days out . Nothing on backside on the Island . But good to be in NE , seems to be ground zero again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yea weaker storm on the euro, but similar to the gfs, looks like a hair further north with the snow/rain line. The 850 and surface freezing line are more aligned on the Euro than the GFS. It's just not going to happen. Congrats interior New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 How does the coastal plain around Boston do? Mixing issues? The coast has some mixing issues, especially the closer you get to the Cape. Boston is probably borderline. Even though the 850 freezing line stays southeast of them, the surface freezing line is well NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 How does the coastal plain around Boston do? Mixing issues? E winds might be a concern for them. Going to be a race pitting dynamics vs. marine influence. The best spot to be is west of 128 and from I-90 north. BOS probably would have to wait until winds pivot around to the north. Their situation is probably a lot like ours was for the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 In the end the Euro is about the same as the GFS for 99% of us. Around 1" of rain. Slightly more northeast.Yea I mean outside of say high point state park in northwest sussex county on north of that line into orange county, this is mostly a pure rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 How does Hartford and rest of northern Ct do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Do the western catskills (Liberty/Monticello see a good snow?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Any chances this trends towards a snowstorm for the majority of us? better track, strengthening sooner, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Do the western catskills (Liberty/Monticello see a good snow?)Pretty much from port jervis's latitude on north sees snow as per the euro and gfs, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Any chances this trends towards a snowstorm for the majority of us? better track, strengthening sooner, etc.? Highly unlikely. The airmass in place ahead of the system and the 500mb set up are very poor for our area. I suppose there is a small chance that a stronger storm or a trend farther south could spare areas like the far interior/NW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Any chances this trends towards a snowstorm for the majority of us? better track, strengthening sooner, etc.? I don't think so. The primary in the lakes is hurting our chances. This will be a CNE-NNE snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 How does Hartford and rest of northern Ct do? Probably a wintry mix over to snow. A good amount of sleet or slop before going to snow it seems like. You really want to be north of I-90 to be sure it's mostly or all snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Highly unlikely. The airmass in place ahead of the system and the 500mb set up are very poor for our area. I suppose there is a small chance that a stronger storm or a trend farther south could spare areas like the far interior/NW suburbs. Thanks guys - this weenie has his fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Do the western catskills (Liberty/Monticello see a good snow?) Its a snowstorm from about central orange county northward.. MSV should do very well considering their elevation is over 1500' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Its a snowstorm from about central orange county northward.. MSV should do very well considering their elevation is over 1500' Here is the bufkit for KSWF (12z GFS) 130223/0900Z 69 11005KT 31.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 130223/1200Z 72 10006KT 31.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 130223/1500Z 75 11009KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 63| 0| 37 130223/1800Z 78 12009KT 36.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 17| 0| 83 130223/2100Z 81 10008KT 35.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 21| 0| 79 130224/0000Z 84 09010KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 39| 0| 61 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 130224/0300Z 87 06012KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.247 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62 47| 0| 53 130224/0600Z 90 03012KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.370 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99 63| 0| 37 130224/0900Z 93 01013KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.172 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.16 76| 0| 24 130224/1200Z 96 36014KT 32.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Here is the bufkit for KSWF (12z GFS) Its close for Stewart.. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kswf But it gets better as you head a little west toward Orange County Airport.. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kmgj This most likely won't be a pure snow event for up here. Snow/Sleet/Rain/Snow will probably be on the menu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Its close for Stewart.. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kswf But it gets better as you head a little west toward Orange County Airport.. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kmgj This most likely won't be a pure snow event for up here. Snow/Sleet/Rain/Snow will probably be on the menu Just from glancing the gfs and euro, in orange, north of poughkeepsie and port jervis should be good for snow especially with elevation, south of there would be rain, rockland definitely is rain, as is bergen and passaic, northwest sussex looks good for snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Some light very wet snow to start on the 18z NAM through hr 72. 850 freezing line is south of the city. Surface freezing line is up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 By hr 75 everyone is flipping over to Rain in NJ and western-central Long Island. Orange and Rockland counties getting a good front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 78, surface low is pretty far south. Temps are trying to crash towards the coast. Orange county especially getting a lot of frozen this run. Surface freezing line is from about Port Jervis eastward. Low is a lot stronger than the Euro. Edit: The heaviest precip is displaced to the south and east of the low. The low actually is just about as weak as what the Euro showed but the precip is more organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 By hr 75 everyone is flipping over to Rain in NJ and western-central Long Island. Orange and Rockland counties getting a good front end dump.Lol of course the nam has a different solution than the gfs and euro, showing the rain snow line way south of where they did, the other models had rain for everyone south of central orange and far northwest nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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