Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Can't get gfs to freakin load for me right now, you have to go all the way to central NYS to get into snow? So I'm assuming the entire metro area is rain this run? It try's to flip us back but the Ccb falls apart. It's darn close for lower Hudson valley. Albany Hartford orh all get crushed. Would not take much more of a shift to bring that change over closer to nw burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Man, this is really close in the NW burbs and it shows more than 1 inch of precip in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z GFS is over a foot of snow for western Mass and southern VT/NH. 4"+ on a swath from about Boston to Lake Ontario. Mixing issues for the Cape and immediate coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'd be happy for the guys in central NY or PA to get a big event out of this, as they've been behind so far this winter. We have to hope the coastal low takes over sooner and dynamics can bring cold air faster, much like the blizzard. But it's hard for me to see this working out soon enough for the immediate metro area. There's even more warm air this time than for the blizzard. Strong primary low= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 93-96 is probably a very wet snow from about Sussex County NJ north and West, but the precip is rapidly coming to an end. Too bad this is such a quick mover, otherwise this would be an interior wet snow bomb even for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'd be happy for the guys in central NY or PA to get a big event out of this, as they've been behind so far this winter. We have to hope the coastal low takes over sooner and dynamics can bring cold air faster, much like the blizzard. But it's hard for me to see this working out soon enough for the immediate metro area. There's even more warm air this time than for the blizzard. Strong primary low= Agree. We need feb 9th and then some more for this to work out. The air mass is such trash, would not be shock if this trends better for be areas. Gfs has lower Hudson valley getting 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z GFS is over a foot of snow for western Mass and southern VT/NH. 4"+ on a swath from about Boston to Lake Ontario. Mixing issues for the Cape and immediate coastline. I could see coastal New England having problems due to the persistent easterly flow. The water's cooler now than it was in late Dec, but Boston got jipped from having a good event on 12/29 when even their immediate western suburbs got up to 10" if not more. Logan I think ended with 3-4". South of Boston I'd be worried about a lot of rain or slop if this happened verbatim. But for I-84 and I-90 west of 128, this is a crushing for sure this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z GFS jackpot extreme southern Vermont. A skiers delight with 18-24" of fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I could see coastal New England having problems due to the persistent easterly flow. The water's cooler now than it was in late Dec, but Boston got jipped from having a good event on 12/29 when even their immediate western suburbs got up to 10" if not more. Logan I think ended with 3-4". South of Boston I'd be worried about a lot of rain or slop if this happened verbatim. But for I-84 and I-90 west of 128, this is a crushing for sure this run. If I lived north of KSWF and up towards the Albany/Springfield area I would be getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Very active pattern we are in. Next storm moving in on Tuesday. Hopefully we get something to work out for us with this blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 93-96 is probably a very wet snow from about Sussex County NJ north and West, but the precip is rapidly coming to an end. Too bad this is such a quick mover, otherwise this would be an interior wet snow bomb even for us.wow, still can't get the gfs to load, but you have to go up to northwest sussex to get into the snow? Not that I'm shocked, I kinda figured as much given the lack of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 wow, still can't get the gfs to load, but you have to go up to northwest sussex to get into the snow? Not that I'm shocked, I kinda figured as much given the lack of cold The GFS snowfall maps don't show any snow accumulations at all for the area until you get into northern Rockland and Orange Counties, but at hr 93 the 850 freezing line is basically right along or just NW of I-287 with the surface freezing line still up towards Port Jervis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Very active pattern we are in. Next storm moving in on Tuesday. Hopefully we get something to work out for us with this blocking We don't really have blocking...just above normal height anomalies in Canada from a southeast ridge extension. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 We don't really have blocking...just above normal height anomalies in Canada from a southeast ridge extension. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f84.gif So it's bootleg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The GFS snowfall maps don't show any snow accumulations at all for the area until you get into northern Rockland and Orange Counties, but at hr 93 the 850 freezing line is basically right along or just NW of I-287 with the surface freezing line still up towards Port Jervis.Ok thanks, that sounds ugly with the surface freezing line up to port jervis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 So it's bootleg? You could put it that way, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 You could put it that way, yeah. Well it def looks like a active pattern, wet start to the end of February/ early march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 For now the blocking is bootleg, but after the Feb 26 "event", the blocking becomes much more legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 If I lived north of KSWF and up towards the Albany/Springfield area I would be getting excited. Yep, if there's a "maul zone" right now I'd pick that area. Catskills, Berkshires, Adirondacks also look prime. Poconos and west however are borderline due to the primary. This basically looks like the blizzard shifted 100 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 As far as the 12z GFS is concerned with the early March threat, the big storm is there, just way OTS. The surface low forms way down in the southern Gulf, south of Tampa. Gives Florida a good soaking before turning the corner, but in the end it's wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The GFS snowfall maps don't show any snow accumulations at all for the area until you get into northern Rockland and Orange Counties, but at hr 93 the 850 freezing line is basically right along or just NW of I-287 with the surface freezing line still up towards Port Jervis.Just got everything to load, yea, it looks like everyone south of say northern sussex, central orange and putnam gets nada, real sharp cutoff on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 For now the blocking is bootleg, but after the Feb 26 "event", the blocking becomes much more legitimate. Agreed...I am just a little weary given the amount of times we've seen medium range guidance go crazy with blocking this year, only to see it become much less impressive as we approach that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 As far as the 12z GFS is concerned with the early March threat, the big storm is there, just way OTS. The surface low forms way down in the southern Gulf, south of Tampa. Gives Florida a good soaking before turning the corner, but in the end it's wide right. It's OTS because it transforms the 26th storm into a huge cutoff over the northeast, which could happen but not to the extent is shown. I don't agree with the evolution of the 26th event either on the gfs, seems very odd to me but still very far out there so it'll change a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Agreed...I am just a little weary given the amount of times we've seen medium range guidance go crazy with blocking this year, only to see it become much less impressive as we approach that time frame. Honestly earthlight if you look at the long range GFS in fantasy land, we actually could use a less intense block as the storm track ends up way south and east and its just cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 For now the blocking is bootleg, but after the Feb 26 "event", the blocking becomes much more legitimate. I think the MJO 4 coming in a little stronger than forecast helped boost the SE Ridge Eastern Canada block connection more than was in the forecast 10 days ago. But I agree that the west based block for the start of March will be the real deal. It will probably all come down to the two streams interacting or phasing far enough west for us. Any delay will favor New England, but that call is still a long way out with such a complex pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Honestly earthlight if you look at the long range GFS in fantasy land, we actually could use a less intense block as the storm track ends up way south and east and its just cold That's probably a good thing that the gfs is showing so much blocking in the long range because reality will probably show a less intense block so we can benefit hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It's OTS because it transforms the 26th storm into a huge cutoff over the northeast, which could happen but not to the extent is shown. I don't agree with the evolution of the 26th event either on the gfs, seems very odd to me but still very far out there so it'll change a lot. I'm not buying the cutoff low either, but it could actually help us if it was situated further west towards the lakes. Let's try to not derail this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The moisture and deepening potential is definitely there with those anomalously warm SST's right off the coast. It's just the antecedent warmth and later closing at H500 would favor areas north and east with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The GFS snowfall maps don't show any snow accumulations at all for the area until you get into northern Rockland and Orange Counties, but at hr 93 the 850 freezing line is basically right along or just NW of I-287 with the surface freezing line still up towards Port Jervis. GFS shows warning level snows from MGJ to SWF in Orange County.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hrs 60-72 on the 12z Euro, surface low looks to be forming way down in eastern Alabama/Georgia this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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