WE GOT HIM Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 the met was essentially right on both of these topics- the storm did phase about 6-10 hours too late for I95 otherwise nyc would have seen a 12/26/10 like storm. Long Island got destroyed and the only reason that nyc saw as much as it did was because the storm was a little stronger than expected and thereby the phase allowed for a better back build of precip into the area (and for the insane snow rates in LI and central CT) . Likewise NYC was caught in between the dying primary and the exploding coastal which further limited its precip chances. Btw- ot. I don't want to make this a banter thread so this is the last I'm going to post about it. He said 1-2" for NYC I'm in Queens and got 13" so idk how right that was. I was calling for a nice storm at the same time (8"+ due to climatology, the high, and cooling) for NYC and he told me I was wrong. - While he was on the right track with what the storm did his argument at the time was that NYC will be to warm at the surface which was wrong, but was a plausible outcome. (The models were already showing the back building at that time.) - Again my point is things will change with this storm especially given how terrible the models have been lately, so I'm not calling this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Any Euro updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 According to the new England forum the euro is on board for a sne snow storm.. so I would take it that the euro screws us also.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 According to the new England forum the euro is on board for a sne snow storm.. so I would take it that the euro screw us also.... It's a bit colder than the gfs at 96, I don't have access to anything between 96 and 120 yet, but should be similar to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It's a bit colder than the gfs at 96, I don't have access to anything between 96 and 120 yet, but should be similar to the GFS The low is pretty far offshore at 120, I'm thinking we're cold enough but the low is too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The low is pretty far offshore at 120, I'm thinking we're cold enough but the low is too far SE. Tracks closer to us than the GFS but its colder, mainly if not all rain unless you're pretty far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Tracks closer to us than the GFS but its colder, mainly if not all rain unless you're pretty far NW. Actually, they are pretty close to each other at out latitude. Euros just a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Before I started posting here and joined up I watched these forums for a long time and I have to say that StormAtSea is a great met and always has been very objective on here. He calls it as he sees it and has always been very accurate in his predictions I fully endorse this post. FWIW, ECMWF doesn't doesn't bring one flake anywhere near NYC. Pehaps the northern most tip of Sussex Co and Northern CT get some accum, that's it. It's all SNE snow from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro looks anything but cold at 96 hours out.. By 120 it is well off to the N and East.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Basically all rain on the euro, 850s don't fall below freezing until 108 and most of the precip is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Seems like the gfs did well sniffing out this storm. Euro seem like it followed. Still 4 days left, but the idea of the storm was first pick up by gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 6Z GFS at Newark as an example shows liquid precip for the next 2 events this weekend and the middle of next week as we lack a cold air source - the storm around 3/1 is still out of accurate range to make a comment but 850's look cold enough- and looking further down the road there is still another storm on the GFS in the pipeline around 3/5-3/6 so maybe an active period coming up - question is whether any of these events will produce frozen precip in NYC metro http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 6Z GFS at Newark as an example shows liquid precip for the next 2 events this weekend and the middle of next week as we lack a cold air source - the storm around 3/1 is still out of accurate range to make a comment but 850's look cold enough- and looking further down the road there is still another storm on the GFS in the pipeline around 3/5-3/6 so maybe an active period coming up - question is whether any of these events will produce frozen precip in NYC metro http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr I'm not convinced both upcoming events are completely liquid, I wouldn't be surprised to see a more miller b development for the 26th storm than is depicted. I do agree though that the march 1st potential could be significant and has the greatest chance for us as well as any additional storms after considering the major block and +PNA will be in full swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Congrats SNE on the Euro It's a SNE-centric pattern, no one should be surprised at that. We're almost in a 07-08 type Nina pattern where the Midwest gets crushed as is about to happen now in NE/KS, and storms that are progressive can re-develop in time for New England. Wouldn't surprise me if Boston ends up well over double Central Park this year, if not more than triple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 We will get more snow in this upcoming pattern. I'm not optimistic until we can see a real blocking pattern emerge to force storms south and force re-developments soon enough for us. The MJO moving out of a favorable phase is also a major stumbling block. We saw a similar pattern to this emerge in 07-08 where we got either rain or nothing and watched Boston continuously get buried, and numerous cutter storms nail the Midwest/Plains. That's the Nina pattern we're stuck in, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'm not optimistic until we can see a real blocking pattern emerge to force storms south and force re-developments soon enough for us. The MJO moving out of a favorable phase is also a major stumbling block. We saw a similar pattern to this emerge in 07-08 where we got either rain or nothing and watched Boston continuously get buried, and numerous cutter storms nail the Midwest/Plains. That's the Nina pattern we're stuck in, unfortunately. I'm not optimistic until we can see a real blocking pattern emerge to force storms south and force re-developments soon enough for us. The MJO moving out of a favorable phase is also a major stumbling block. We saw a similar pattern to this emerge in 07-08 where we got either rain or nothing and watched Boston continuously get buried, and numerous cutter storms nail the Midwest/Plains. That's the Nina pattern we're stuck in, unfortunately. really, nina? I thought a nina pattern was lacking a STJ...there is a lot of southern stream action here...lets call this what it is: a crappy pattern, sans one lucky storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 really, nina? I thought a nina pattern was lacking a STJ...there is a lot of southern stream action here...lets call this what it is: a crappy pattern, sans one lucky storm The progressiveness of the pattern and overdominant northern stream is much more reminiscent of a leftover Nina pattern. Notice that even with the southern stream present, opportunities for storms develop too late for us, and the poor blocking results in storms cutting and cold air eroded. The two storms last week could have been hits here had it not been for a fast pattern either shearing them out or forcing development east. New England's longitude helped them capitalize on these somewhat. The blizzard would have been much worse for more of us had the phase not been so late. As it is we lucked out a lot by the development of the back-end of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Not worth much but the nam is real amp up at 84hrs might be a solid run for nw areas after 84. Looks great for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hopefully either on the front end or back we can squeeze out 1-3".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Not worth much but the nam is real amp up at 84hrs might be a solid run for nw areas after 84. Looks great for sne actually per the NAM SNE has mixing issues as well, at least at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hopefully either on the front end or back we can squeeze out 1-3".... That's probably the best outcome for this along the coast. Need to watch for some type of early over running Friday night or Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 actually per the NAM SNE has mixing issues as well, at least at the start That's to be expected, most areas outside orh will start as rain. Just extending the run you can see it will really bomb out and plaster them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That's probably the best outcome for this along the coast. Need to watch for some type of early over running Friday night or SaturdayNew England definitely looks good, as far as our area goes, you will probably have to go up to far northwest new jersey, sussex county where there is some elevation to see any snow and it even looks to start out as rain up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 New England definitely looks good, as far as our area goes, you will probably have to go up to northwest new jersey, sussex county where there is some elevation to see any snow and it even looks to start out as rain up there I feel nw areas are very much in the game. Euro was not that far away from something better for them. Euro at 72 has some light frozen in the area before we go to rain. Granted its not much, but I would not be shock if areas start off as a period of snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Gfs out to hr 84 looks to be real amp up. Should prob be good for northern areas with a flip to snow and crush sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 90 western sne and cny to northern pa getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 93 996 south of Long Island crushing run for sne and central NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 96 storm moving out. Just a wet snow bomb for all on central ny and sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hr 93 996 south of Long Island crushing run for sne and central NYCan't get gfs to freakin load for me right now, you have to go all the way to central NYS to get into snow? So I'm assuming the entire metro area is rain this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 12z GFS is more of the same. Big snowstorm for interior southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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