killabud Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Yes there's a ton of precip on the 18z compared to the 12z. But it's extremely warm verbatim. Rain for everyone. Big hit for Boston. just surprised that there was literally not one post talking about it,besides snow88 mentioning the GEFS I'd think the models showing something different pretty much every run warrants at least a little interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 just surprised that there was literally not one post talking about it,besides snow88 mentioning the GEFS I'd think the models showing something different pretty much every run warrants at least a little interest No one was interested because it is showing a pure rainstorm even north and west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 No one was interested because it is showing a pure rainstorm even north and west of the city We need a 00z euro like solution to have a shot at snow but the setup is not a good one at all for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This was always a bootleg threat with the northern stream being so dominant due to the -PNA pattern. The airmass is crap by late February standards, and you have to hope a poorly modeled secondary closes off before it runs up to NYC to get any snowfall. I'm not saying someone with elevation couldn't eek out a couple sloppy inches, but I think the better threats start around Feb 27-28 and last through Mar 10 or so. That's prime climo for a snowfall and the pattern looks like some of the greats like 3.2.60. Agree. The threat was and still is a NW NJ/Interior into SNE type deal. The pattern improves post feb 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 If you live Long Island , chances are you will see some snow before the weekend is out , the GFS is wrong IMO with the center running to Bangor in the face of the block . The Euro`s operational and its Control run still advertise a deformation band setting up over the Northeast part of the forecast area sometime Sunday . SNE and Eastern CT will fair better in the end , but this is not a rainstorm for the entire area . The Euro ensembles agrees that the center never gets that far North , but at the very least stays south and east . A good middle ground would be the OP and Control . The GFS is just lost and it wouldnt be surprise if over the next few runs it runs this center to Bermuda . I will go down in flames with the Euro before I ever let the GFS hinder my impression of whats on the table In short I just cant trust a model that printed out 12 inches of snow at 12z on Friday only to print out drizzle just 6 hrs later at 18z on Friday . Im riding the Euro , maybe of a cliff , but at least I will be in good company . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Agree. The threat was and still is a NW NJ/Interior into SNE type deal. The pattern improves post feb 26th. The 18z GFS was very close at delivering the goods here in the interior. Hopefully its a trend toward earlier solutions from 24-48 hrs ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS is rainy for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS is rainy for this weekend A raw chilly rainy day, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 A raw chilly rainy day, ugh. I wouldn't give up yet. This is a bomb for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The coastal would really have to explode for us to get some snow, the gfs is actually close to doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The coastal would really have to explode for us to get some snow, the gfs is actually close to doing that. I think we do get some snow as the storm bombs but nothing big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Took a big leap in the right direction with that nice CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looks like H5 closed off a good 100 miles further south this run. It obliterates Boston and well, Maybe a few inches on the back end for NNJ NYC. But Boston, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 If the gfs is correct about bombing the storm with the CCB over us than we might get some snow with it, that's a big if though. I actually think the Feb 26 storm has a slightly better shot at getting us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Believable that New England would get hit in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Snow/rain/snow scenario for the far interior on the 0z GFS. This is def something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Stormvista snowmap shows 1-3 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think we do get some snow as the storm bombs but nothing big.Maybe flurries at the tail end lol but Boston gets buried. This is an epic run for Boston, not surprising though, New England finds a way to snow between november-april no matter how bad the pattern is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Oh so close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Not really. Even in Boston, they are going to have significant problems with surface temperatures. A lot of their precip falls during the daylight hours. This is late February now, sun angle will begin taking its toll on accumulations. There is simply not enough low level cold around for a solid snow event. I think think BOS ends up with accumulations, but I also think they have mixing problems and difficulty getting below 33 or 34 F. Oh so close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Not really. Even in Boston, they are going to have significant problems with surface temperatures. A lot of their precip falls during the daylight hours. This is late February now, sun angle will begin taking its toll on accumulations. There is simply not enough low level cold around for a solid snow event. I think think BOS ends up with accumulations, but I also think they have mixing problems and difficulty getting below 33 or 34 F. Boston gets over 12 inches on the GFS. Sun angle is not a problem when you have heavy snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 0z GGEM is colder and weaker than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 0z GGEM is colder and weaker than the GFS It becomes clearer on every run, this is a New England special. If you are south of New England you are screwed. Situations like this always favor their latitude and even there it is marginal as far as cold air goes, but just enough for a decent snow event, as is usual for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It becomes clearer on every run, this is a New England special. If you are south of New England you are screwed. Situations like this always favor their latitude and even there it is marginal as far as cold air goes, but just enough for a decent snow event, as is usual for them Still all rain for NYC. SNE Starts off as rain but then turns to snow as the low bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Because the clown maps and the pathetic snow algorithm say so? You've been on here long enough...it's time to improve your game. Boston gets over 12 inches on the GFS. Sun angle is not a problem when you have heavy snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Because the clown maps and the pathetic snow algorithm say so? You've been on here long enough...it's time to improve your game. No, the GFS says so. Everyone is going bonkers in the SNE thread over that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 "Everyone" is not going bonkers. There are some mets in there that are being very objective and noting substantial BL issues and some that are allowing their "weenie within" to show. Now, don't get me wrong, you head 20 miles west and it's a completely different story. No, the GFS says so. Everyone is going bonkers in the SNE thread over that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 "Everyone" is not going bonkers. There are some mets in there that are being very objective and noting substantial BL issues and some that are allowing their "weenie within" to show. Now, don't get me wrong, you head 20 miles west and it's a completely different story. Weren't you super bearish on the storm 2 weeks ago calling for 1-3. Even if it says the surface is warm that doesn't mean it cant change either. Hell maybe we can still get a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 People have short memories. My forecast below was targeted towards NYC Metro...Actual: 11 in. in Central Park, 6.5 at JFK, 12 in. at LGA. I was on the lower side, but I think that was more reasonable than going on the higher side especially since we had significant mixing issues during a large chunk of the storm. Posted by Storm At Sea on 7 February 2013 - 03:34 PM in New York City Metro 18z NAM is pretty...but it's overdone. I say cut the totals in half and run with your accums. So 3 in. of QPF with 10 or 12: 1 ratio = 15 in. or so. Posted by Storm At Sea on 8 February 2013 - 09:38 AM in New York City Metro It seems to happen almost every year. Due to lack of knowledge, many people view the 0C 850 mb isotherm as a "wall" or "barricade" to rain. "If I'm north of that, I'm safe." It's just not the case. I think this is a 4-8 inch storm with almost all of it coming after 10PM as the OH valley system heads east and essentially helps form a nice deformation band on the western flank of the system. Unfortunately, this was a very complex evolution and even the Euro had problems with it. NAM output from 00z last night was a joke, btw. Weren't you super bearish on the storm 2 weeks ago calling for 1-3. Even if it says the surface is warm that doesn't mean it cant change either. Hell maybe we can still get a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 lol Things change fast man I understand, your probably right with this storm but keep all options still open were 105 hours out. #788 8 Storm At Sea Posted 5 February 2013 - 11:28 PM These Miller B's are almost always New England specials. There's simply not enough room across the CONUS to keep two significant troughs at bay. One is going to get forced out quickly....and it will probably be the EC coastal bombing about 6-8 hours too late for the I-95. #796 Storm At Sea Posted 5 February 2013 - 11:36 PM I'm starting to think that we get caught in between, which is the norm for Miller B's around here....we get a quick thump rain or slop snow (1-2 inches)....over to rain/drizzle...and then done.....meanwhile LI and NE get slammed with blizzard conditions. the met was essentially right on both of these topics- the storm did phase about 6-10 hours too late for I95 otherwise nyc would have seen a 12/26/10 like storm. Long Island got destroyed and the only reason that nyc saw as much as it did was because the storm was a little stronger than expected and thereby the phase allowed for a better back build of precip into the area (and for the insane snow rates in LI and central CT) . Likewise NYC was caught in between the dying primary and the exploding coastal which further limited its precip chances. Btw- ot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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