Febuary 22-24

[PB GFI]

rain, there is no cold air, just because a low follows that track does not mean snow when you don't have a cold dome in place

You dont need a COLD DOME of air in front of it , it just has top be cold enough . Theres enough cold air that gets pulled into the system as it deepens on its way NE as per Euro .

850`S are plenty cold enough to snow if QPF rates are what the Euro says they are .

If its a weak system , you dont cool the column and YOU RAIN . The Euro is deepening it enough aloft so it snows . And it sees a nice CCB signal

Just wait a few days to see track and intensity , I wouldn`t write anything off yet . but I will never dismiss the Euro .

[mikemurph44]

You dont need a COLD DOME of air in front of it , it just has top be cold enough . Theres enough cold air that gets pulled into the system as it deepens on its way NE as per Euro .

850`S are plenty cold enough to snow if QPF rates are what the Euro says they are .

If its a weak system , you dont cool the column and YOU RAIN . The Euro is deepening it enough aloft so it snows . And it sees a nice CCB signal

Just wait a few days to see track and intensity , I wouldn`t write anything off yet . but I will never dismiss the Euro .

I just said that, you would have to rely on strong convective banding and heavy precip to pull down colder air aloft and dynamically cool down to the surface. And yes it would take what the 0z operational euro showed, with severe instability and upward lift to produce a snow storm given the lack of cold air. If the storm does not explosively deepen as the euro depicted then its rain as you said

[NEG NAO]

Negnao, The hpc mentioned favoring the euro ensemble which did not agree with the operational snowstorm run at 0z

where do you see that in this discussion ? If you have them mentioning that post it here

 

THE DAY 4-5 SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST REMAINS IN A

FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND

SUNDAY MORNING AS IT TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN

SEABOARD. TO FULLY RESPECT THE 19/00Z GEFS/GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE

TO SWIFTLY EJECT THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS

POINT...THE UPSTREAM PATTERN IS DRIVING THIS SOLUTION AND RECENT

TRENDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A

SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN THAN WHAT THE 19/00Z GFS

PACKAGES SUGGEST.

 

[mikemurph44]

where do you see that in this discussion ? If you have them mentioning that post it here

THE DAY 4-5 SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST REMAINS IN A

FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND

SUNDAY MORNING AS IT TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN

SEABOARD. TO FULLY RESPECT THE 19/00Z GEFS/GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE

TO SWIFTLY EJECT THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS

POINT...THE UPSTREAM PATTERN IS DRIVING THIS SOLUTION AND RECENT

TRENDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A

SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN THAN WHAT THE 19/00Z GFS

PACKAGES SUGGEST.

You can't be serious, what does this say: ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST COAST. THE 19/00Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

WAS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5

[PB GFI]

Show me where the cold air is. How is it going to snow without cold air? You would have to rely on the low producing its own cold from massive uvv lifting and dynamic cooling of the column.

Here is your cold air ...

High in SE CANADA , just chill , this is not RAIN . Just watch the Euro . If the Euro loses the storm then fight

not yet .

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WELL NORTH

ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE

DESERT SW LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LARGE AREA OF WARM AIR

ADVECTION PCPN MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY THE

WEEKEND. LIGHT PCPN WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH A WINTRY

MIX...THAT MAY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN SAT AFT WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE

AND A RETURN E/SE FLOW DEVELOPING. THE KEY HERE IS HOW MUCH WARM AIR

MOVES IN OFF THE ATLANTIC BEFORE A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE SE COAST

DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT NIGHT. THE 00Z

ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES....BUT THE

ECMWF LOW IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE

GFS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SCENARIO CHANGES THE PCPN BACK OVER TO

ALL SNOW BEFORE THE STORM PASSES TO THE EAST SUN AFT. THE GFS IS

FARTHER SOUTH AND ABOUT 10 MB WEAKER...WHICH IS BIG DEAL WHEN YOU

ARE DEALING WITH A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS. IRONICALLY...BY 00Z

MON...THE ECWMF...GFS...AND GEFS ARE ALL ON TOP OF EACH OTHER WITH

THE LOW SOUTH OF 40N...AND EAST OF 70W. BLOCKING TO THE NORTH LOOKS

TO PREVENT THIS LOW FROM IMPACTING MUCH MORE THAN SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND. OF COURSE...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS WITH PLENTY OF

UNCERTAINTIES TO DEAL WITH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT THE WEEKEND

LOOKS TO BE INCLEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF

WINTER WEATHER.

[NEG NAO]

You can't be serious, what does this say: ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST COAST. THE 19/00Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

WAS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5

 

and you originaly wrote:

 

"Negnao, The hpc mentioned favoring the euro ensemble which did not agree with the operational snowstorm run at 0z"

 

the piece you just posted said the 19/00Z ensemble was best represented by the ECMWF it doesn't say it did not agree with it anyplace in the discussion

[mikemurph44]

and you originaly wrote:

"Negnao, The hpc mentioned favoring the euro ensemble which did not agree with the operational snowstorm run at 0z"

the piece you just posted said the 19/00Z ensemble was best represented by the ECMWF it doesn't say it did not agree with it anyplace in the discussion

Done with this exchange, if you say something is BEST REPRESENTED by a certain model's ensemble it means you agree with its depiction. No sense in arguing semantics anymore, it doesn't make it snow

[Allsnow]

I would love for this southern vort to track under the block. Would have been nice

[Snow_Miser]

FWIW the 00z EPS ECMWF Control Run looked similar to the Operational ECMWF 00z run. 12z run coming out right now.

[ace0927]

You hit the nail on the head, people see a low on or near the benchmark and say "oh my God it's gonna be a snowstorm!" It doesn't snow when you don't have cold air, which we won't...

 

 

You hit the nail on the head, people see a low on or near the benchmark and say "oh my God it's gonna be a snowstorm!" It doesn't snow when you don't have cold air, which we won't...

MikeMurph44, welcome to the NYC thread...in may if there is a 995 low at the BM, there are some in here that would consider it a potential

[Allsnow]

Hr 96 low forming over hse. 850's south of area. Surface nw jersey. Light stuff in area

[Allsnow]

Hr 102 low still disorganized and temps have warmed

[Allsnow]

Hr 108 low further east and weaker

[Snow_Miser]

Any updates so far on the overall synoptic evolution on the 12z ECMWF?

[Allsnow]

Hr 114 east and weak. No snow for nw jersey this run

[rossi]

Hr 114 east and weak. No snow for nw jersey this run

Is there any for anyone?

[MJO812]

Hr 114 east and weak. No snow for nw jersey this run

 

 

Looks like some light snow for the area but it's east and weaker like you said.

[IsentropicLift]

Euro is a complete whiff. Caves to the GFS. In fact, it might even be worse than the GFS.

[Allsnow]

Develops to late for area. Some light stuff NYC-east

[Allsnow]

Is there any for anyone?

Long Island and sne.

[MJO812]

Euro is a complete whiff. Caves to the GFS. In fact, it might even be worse than the GFS.

 

Ehh at least it still shows a storm.

[IsentropicLift]

Looks like some light snow for the area but it's east and weaker like you said.

Only flurries this run for eastern sections, with the surface freezing line well NW.

[IsentropicLift]

This storm was always a long shot anyway. Time to move onto the next one. The setup at 500mb is nothing short of dismal for anything more than a few snow showers, if that.

[PB GFI]

And thats why you dont argue BL 5 days out . With the NAO neg ( that everyone roots for ) this is what can happen .

Whiffs are more likely than rain .

Don t like to see the Euro flip flop .

But way too early to say next .. You have to wait until thrs , when they are on the grid , not before then

[mikemurph44]

The Euro moved toward its ensemble which is pretty common as we go from 144 down closer to 120.

Exactly! This operational run should come as no surprise, the fact that the ensemble mean did not match the operational last night was a red flag, dead give away that it was going to change.

[NEXtreme]

We all know model runs of 4-5 days in the future means the weather will do exactly what the models show it will do by then.

[nzucker]

This was always a bootleg threat with the northern stream being so dominant due to the -PNA pattern. The airmass is crap by late February standards, and you have to hope a poorly modeled secondary closes off before it runs up to NYC to get any snowfall. I'm not saying someone with elevation couldn't eek out a couple sloppy inches, but I think the better threats start around Feb 27-28 and last through Mar 10 or so. That's prime climo for a snowfall and the pattern looks like some of the greats like 3.2.60. 

[bluewave]

Exactly! This operational run should come as no surprise, the fact that the ensemble mean did not match the operational last night was a red flag, dead give away that it was going to change.

 

You can usually count on either the ensemble mean or the OP having the correct idea from 120-240 hrs ahead of all the other guidance.

The ECMWF system works so well that you can use the ensemble mean to correct some of the biases that the OP has. But there

are several well known cases when the OP locks in on a solution past 120hrs and holds serve right up to the event.

[killabud]

i mean,i know it's rain for us on 18z

 

but that's a big shift from its previous run,surprised there's no discussion

[TWCCraig]

i mean,i know it's rain for us on 18z

 

but that's a big shift from its previous run,surprised there's no discussion

 

Yes there's a ton of precip on the 18z compared to the 12z. But it's extremely warm verbatim. 850's well north for the majority of the event, the 850's don't collapse until most of the precip is gone. Rain for everyone. Big hit for Boston. 

 

Low well inside the BM, just south of LI at hr 108.