PB GFI Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 and HPC has upped the precip totals to reflect the system developing and moving up the coast near the BM http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Yeh , and I like the look of the European surface map , I know the air mass isn`t great but at least its on the table . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 00z Euro was a big hit NW of the city. Especially north of I-80. Between 0.50-1.00" mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 00z Euro was a big hit NW of the city. Especially north of I-80. Between 0.50-1.00" mostly frozen. So mainly rain for the city and immediate suburbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 So mainly rain for the city and immediate suburbs? Not on the 0z Euro . lotta time to firgure out precip type . It should come to the BM , precip rates will determine type because the BL will suck on the onset . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 So mainly rain for the city and immediate suburbs? Rain to heavy snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Winter cancel. It's time to start moving on. I think we have one more threat to watch during the last few days of Feb. into the first week of March, but then it's done. I'm getting tired of staying up for the Euro every night. See, even pros are human and can make weenie posts, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 See, even pros are human and can make weenie posts, lol... He also called cancel with the blizzard two weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Rain to heavy snow for the coast. Per the paid maps on storm vista the surface freezing line stays just north of the city and along the north shore of Long Island. This run is mainly rain for anyone east and or south of the city. I will put up the image for a few minutes and then delete it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 00z Euro was a big hit NW of the city. Especially north of I-80. Between 0.50-1.00" mostly frozen. So mainly rain for the city and immediate suburbs? Accuweather pro snowfall maps show 6"+ for the city and immediate suburbs, and if you're inland enough, around a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Actually the 6" line goes all the way down to C NJ. NYC gets around 9" verbatim on this snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Accuweather pro snowfall maps show 6"+ for the city and immediate suburbs, and if you're inland enough, around a foot. It will come down heavy for a few hours if you take the Euro verbatim, but surface temps would be marginal from the city south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Per the paid maps on storm vista the surface freezing line stays just north of the city and along the north shore of Long Island. This run is mainly rain for anyone east and or south of the city. I will put up the image for a few minutes and then delete it. I wouldn't worry about surface temps. I would worry more about the BL and whether or not it is too warm. That looks like a rain to snow scenario for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I wouldn't worry about surface temps. I would worry more about the BL and whether or not it is too warm. That looks like a rain to snow scenario for the coast. I'm not worried about anything. Out my way it should be more than 90% snow. The 06z GFS had nothing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Per the paid maps on storm vista the surface freezing line stays just north of the city and along the north shore of Long Island. This run is mainly rain for anyone east and or south of the city. I will put up the image for a few minutes and then delete it. I wouldn't worry about surface temps. I would worry more about the BL and whether or not it is too warm. That looks like a rain to snow scenario for the coast. Assuming the Euro is right with its heavy precip and temps for the rest of the column, everyone in this subforum would do really well. Big if, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Actually the 6" line goes all the way down to C NJ. NYC gets around 9" verbatim on this snowfall map. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It will come down heavy for a few hours if you take the Euro verbatim, but surface temps would be marginal from the city south and east. Stop you are wrong verbatim on that run last night. You are missing the frame before that which shows heavy wet snow for city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Stop you are wrong verbatim on that run last night. You are missing the frame before that which shows heavy wet snow for city. Really??? Because here is the frame before that and the city is above freezing at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Really??? Because here is the frame before that and the city is above freezing at all levels. You can't see in between that. Hour 129 or 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You can't see in between that. Hour 129 or 135. Even at hr 132 the surface freezing line is directly over the city and the north shore of Long Island with precip beginning to come to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Even at hr 132 the surface freezing line is directly over the city and the north shore of Long Island with precip beginning to come to an end. And yet somehow the euro gives me 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 And yet somehow the euro gives me 9 inches. Only nw jersey gets snow in this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 And yet somehow the euro gives me 9 inches. I'm just going off the paid maps provided by storm vista. I didn't say it wouldn't snow at all in the city, just that temps would be marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Only nw jersey gets snow in this set up Stop putting words in my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Do not use a day 5 Euro for surface temps . Use the Euro for track and intensity . If you drop .50 - .75 inches of QPF under minus 2 air on a North wind in a 6 hour period , with a system at the BM coming to a point and turning east under a block You are goin to snow with the scenario the Euro paints . It has a nice CCB look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Only nw jersey gets snow in this set up If there aren't any warm layers aloft, winds are from an offshore direction, and precip seems heavy, I think it would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 per the euro..this is for the 22th (friday) or 24th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 per the euro..this is for the 22th (friday) or 24th? Precip would begin Saturday night and become heavy during the overnight hours before ending around noon on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 If there aren't any warm layers aloft, winds are from an offshore direction, and precip seems heavy, I think it would be snow. The danger is that with the SE Ridge in place, the Euro trends a little further north and this turns into an inland jackpot ending as some slop at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Only nw jersey gets snow in this set up If there aren't any warm layers aloft, winds are from an offshore direction, and precip seems heavy, I think it would be snow. Tim was being sarcastic, but yes, you are right. This run is a lot of snow for us, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 If there aren't any warm layers aloft, winds are from an offshore direction, and precip seems heavy, I think it would be snow. The danger is that with the SE Ridge in place, the Euro trends a little further north and this turns into an inland jackpot ending as some slop at the coast. If the SE ridge wasn't bridging with the Canadian "block", then I'd actually be excited for this threat. But I suppose it's possible we could pull a rabbit out of a hat. A dynamic system off the coast in late February shouldn't be scoffed at, though this pattern warrants extreme skepticism right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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