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Febuary 22-24


Chrisjmcjr

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Take a look at the new Euro control run .1. It was the first model two weeks ago that picked up the CCB over Long Island and from 5 days away  painted 1 to 2 feet across it at that time and it was right  . 2 TUES nites run , picked up the development of Fridays  1 st  system on the Arctic wave that gave NWNJ some now before the coastal took over on SAT so it was early there too  .

 

Now at hr 144 its once again is picking up on the CCB signal across Long Island . Its seeing the block so it takes the system to south of Montauk , stalls  it and then sends  it east .

Watch for the other models to start hinting at the system getting just far enough north then heading EAST ,possibly pulling colder air in through the column .  This model has been very good picking out these events a week out .

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ECMWF ensemble mean for 120hrs, this Saturday.

NOT a conducive H5 synoptic set-up for east coast snowstorms. Monster trough in the Western US, SE ridge heights extending nwd into the Hudson Bay fake block, and low heights in Greenland.

2hchzzc.png


Note the major changes by 240hrs. Height rises across the Arctic/NATL with more expansive/efficient blocking and consequently you've got the troughiness bellying underneath into the East. This is a set-up with loaded potential if it comes to fruition.

34zj18k.png
 

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ECMWF ensemble mean for 120hrs, this Saturday.

NOT a conducive H5 synoptic set-up for east coast snowstorms. Monster trough in the Western US, SE ridge heights extending nwd into the Hudson Bay fake block, and low heights in Greenland.

2hchzzc.png

Note the major changes by 240hrs. Height rises across the Arctic/NATL with more expansive/efficient blocking and consequently you've got the troughiness bellying underneath into the East. This is a set-up with loaded potential if it comes to fruition.

34zj18k.png

 

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Check out the Euro control run for the time period , you and Bluewave were talking about today

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As modeled, this potential event looks horrible. Check out the ridge axis ahead of the shortwave over the Central US which is ejecting north and east. Not only is the antecedent airmass bad, but the track of the shortwave (pretty far north to start and running into a big ridge) ... means only New England could recover if a surface low deepens off the coast and the thermal profile crashes with dynamic cooling.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f108.gif

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ECMWF ensemble mean for 120hrs, this Saturday.

NOT a conducive H5 synoptic set-up for east coast snowstorms. Monster trough in the Western US, SE ridge heights extending nwd into the Hudson Bay fake block, and low heights in Greenland.

2hchzzc.png

Note the major changes by 240hrs. Height rises across the Arctic/NATL with more expansive/efficient blocking and consequently you've got the troughiness bellying underneath into the East. This is a set-up with loaded potential if it comes to fruition.

34zj18k.png

 

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Yea, the euro ensemble mean is about as ugly as you can get, no cold air, a se ridge in place, no strong high over se canada, no meaningful 50/50 low, -pna, +epo, +nao, +ao.  I just don't see how anyone outside of northern and central new england gets a snowstorm out of that look. 

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As modeled, this potential event looks horrible. Check out the ridge axis ahead of the shortwave over the Central US which is ejecting north and east. Not only is the antecedent airmass bad, but the track of the shortwave (pretty far north to start and running into a big ridge) ... means only New England could recover if a surface low deepens off the coast and the thermal profile crashes with dynamic cooling.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f108.gif

 

 

Agreed. SNE and particularly Boston/CNE can do well w/ poor H5 set-ups, so they're still very much in the game for significant snow. However, NYC southwestward is pretty much dead in the water I'd say. If we're extremely lucky we might get an inch or two after changeover.

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Winter cancel. It's time to start moving on. I think we have one more threat to watch during the last few days of Feb. into the first week of March, but then it's done. I'm getting tired of staying up for the Euro every night.

 

0z GGEM has a lot of rain for the coast with the 22nd, 23rd storm

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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The 0z Euro operational matches its 12z control run . With the NAO NEG the low gets to Montauk , bombs out and draws cold air towards its center , slows and then heads EAST

Why anyone in late Feb , with a NEG NAO ,a center moving to the BM and  High in SE Canada would think that this is nothing more than an area wide cold air rain is lost on me .

The Euro in the end may be wrong , but its wanted to snow on Long Island in the past few weeks , I think in the end this is no different  . These storms have all come to the BM recently .  The NAO is NEG , and not just at 500 mb also climo isnt againt you yet either in late FEB .

 

So my feeling is I like the Control run , its been good seeing these systems unfold early and then other models have rallied to it , I ignore the GFS outside 72 hours  and could care less if it showed 2 ft of snow or 2 inches of rain .

 

Yes the air mass is marginal in front of it , but we have not been in a warm pattern since Jan 20 , and these systems have trended colder in the end not warmer  IMO .

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The 0z Euro operational matches its 12z control run . With the NAO NEG the low gets to Montauk , bombs out and draws cold air towards its center , slows and then heads EAST

Why anyone in late Feb , with a NEG NAO ,a center moving to the BM and  High in SE Canada would think that this is nothing more than an area wide cold air rain is lost on me .

The Euro in the end may be wrong , but its wanted to snow on Long Island in the past few weeks , I think in the end this is no different  . These storms have all come to the BM recently .  The NAO is NEG , and not just at 500 mb also climo isnt againt you yet either in late FEB .

 

So my feeling is I like the Control run , its been good seeing these systems unfold early and then other models have rallied to it , I ignore the GFS outside 72 hours  and could care less if it showed 2 ft of snow or 2 inches of rain .

 

Yes the air mass is marginal in front of it , but we have not been in a warm pattern since Jan 20 , and these systems have trended colder in the end not warmer  IMO .

and HPC has upped the precip totals to reflect the system developing and moving up the coast near the BM

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

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