Momza Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Is Allan Kasper calling for snow or rain? I think he was spot on with 2/8, but I don't remember. You do remember so why ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Very impressive storm, if we want to get snow out of this, H5 needs to close off over philly or south of there even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I think it's going to be tough to get anything going south of southern New England for the remainder of this cold season. If your totals are near average thus far, consider yourself lucky. Neutral ENSO's usually blow chunks in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This is a horrible run for the nyc metro area, all rain and warm throughout, a 180 from what it had at 12z. Verbatim this is even rain up to orange county 18z GFS still has some good snows for up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 No one should look at the surface until midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Take a look at the new Euro control run .1. It was the first model two weeks ago that picked up the CCB over Long Island and from 5 days away painted 1 to 2 feet across it at that time and it was right . 2 TUES nites run , picked up the development of Fridays 1 st system on the Arctic wave that gave NWNJ some now before the coastal took over on SAT so it was early there too . Now at hr 144 its once again is picking up on the CCB signal across Long Island . Its seeing the block so it takes the system to south of Montauk , stalls it and then sends it east . Watch for the other models to start hinting at the system getting just far enough north then heading EAST ,possibly pulling colder air in through the column . This model has been very good picking out these events a week out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 ECMWF ensemble mean for 120hrs, this Saturday.NOT a conducive H5 synoptic set-up for east coast snowstorms. Monster trough in the Western US, SE ridge heights extending nwd into the Hudson Bay fake block, and low heights in Greenland.Note the major changes by 240hrs. Height rises across the Arctic/NATL with more expansive/efficient blocking and consequently you've got the troughiness bellying underneath into the East. This is a set-up with loaded potential if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 ECMWF ensemble mean for 120hrs, this Saturday. NOT a conducive H5 synoptic set-up for east coast snowstorms. Monster trough in the Western US, SE ridge heights extending nwd into the Hudson Bay fake block, and low heights in Greenland. Note the major changes by 240hrs. Height rises across the Arctic/NATL with more expansive/efficient blocking and consequently you've got the troughiness bellying underneath into the East. This is a set-up with loaded potential if it comes to fruition. Check out the Euro control run for the time period , you and Bluewave were talking about today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 As modeled, this potential event looks horrible. Check out the ridge axis ahead of the shortwave over the Central US which is ejecting north and east. Not only is the antecedent airmass bad, but the track of the shortwave (pretty far north to start and running into a big ridge) ... means only New England could recover if a surface low deepens off the coast and the thermal profile crashes with dynamic cooling. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 ECMWF ensemble mean for 120hrs, this Saturday. NOT a conducive H5 synoptic set-up for east coast snowstorms. Monster trough in the Western US, SE ridge heights extending nwd into the Hudson Bay fake block, and low heights in Greenland. Note the major changes by 240hrs. Height rises across the Arctic/NATL with more expansive/efficient blocking and consequently you've got the troughiness bellying underneath into the East. This is a set-up with loaded potential if it comes to fruition. Yea, the euro ensemble mean is about as ugly as you can get, no cold air, a se ridge in place, no strong high over se canada, no meaningful 50/50 low, -pna, +epo, +nao, +ao. I just don't see how anyone outside of northern and central new england gets a snowstorm out of that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 As modeled, this potential event looks horrible. Check out the ridge axis ahead of the shortwave over the Central US which is ejecting north and east. Not only is the antecedent airmass bad, but the track of the shortwave (pretty far north to start and running into a big ridge) ... means only New England could recover if a surface low deepens off the coast and the thermal profile crashes with dynamic cooling. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f108.gif Agreed. SNE and particularly Boston/CNE can do well w/ poor H5 set-ups, so they're still very much in the game for significant snow. However, NYC southwestward is pretty much dead in the water I'd say. If we're extremely lucky we might get an inch or two after changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18z GFS mean is colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18z GFS mean is colder than the op. GFS ensembles have a cold/SE bias so it doesnt really mean much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS ensembles have a cold/SE bias so it doesnt really mean much Any solution is on the table right now. Too early to worry about the temps. It's good to see the ensembles jump on the amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'll be surprised if we get much snow if any from this, could be a New England special though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Check out the Euro control run for the time period , you and Bluewave were talking about today It shows a BECS on March 2 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It shows a BECS on March 2 lol Picture? Or link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Horrible looking at 135. This run is weird with 2 enlogated lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Horrible looking at 135. This run is weird with 2 enlogated lows.this ain't our pattern man, patience, the synoptic setup sucks right now, we aren't getting a snowstorm this weekend, lost cause, next week is a different story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 this ain't our pattern man, patience, the synoptic setup sucks right now, we aren't getting a snowstorm this weekend, lost cause, next week is a different story... The pattern next week looks much better. I agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Then this thing shows up again but is too far out to take seriously http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp12252.gif Euro control has the same exact thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z GGEM has a lot of rain for the coast with the 22nd, 23rd stormhttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Winter cancel. It's time to start moving on. I think we have one more threat to watch during the last few days of Feb. into the first week of March, but then it's done. I'm getting tired of staying up for the Euro every night. 0z GGEM has a lot of rain for the coast with the 22nd, 23rd stormhttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z GGEM has a lot of rain for the coast with the 22nd, 23rd storm http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Like I said, stick a fork in this one it's a goner, gfs, ukie, ggem, and I'm sure the euro will all agree, a snow event just isn't happening this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 EURO has a snowstorm for the area at 132hrs. This is pretty cold. Warm to start and then heavy precip crashes temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 euro seems reasonable i doubt most of us get an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 EURO has a snowstorm for the area at 132hrs. This is pretty cold. Warm to start and then heavy precip crashes temps Yes, looks like a 4 - 8" deal after temps crash per EURO snowfall on wunder maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The euro shows snow for the entire area including the coast?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The 0z Euro operational matches its 12z control run . With the NAO NEG the low gets to Montauk , bombs out and draws cold air towards its center , slows and then heads EAST Why anyone in late Feb , with a NEG NAO ,a center moving to the BM and High in SE Canada would think that this is nothing more than an area wide cold air rain is lost on me . The Euro in the end may be wrong , but its wanted to snow on Long Island in the past few weeks , I think in the end this is no different . These storms have all come to the BM recently . The NAO is NEG , and not just at 500 mb also climo isnt againt you yet either in late FEB . So my feeling is I like the Control run , its been good seeing these systems unfold early and then other models have rallied to it , I ignore the GFS outside 72 hours and could care less if it showed 2 ft of snow or 2 inches of rain . Yes the air mass is marginal in front of it , but we have not been in a warm pattern since Jan 20 , and these systems have trended colder in the end not warmer IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The 0z Euro operational matches its 12z control run . With the NAO NEG the low gets to Montauk , bombs out and draws cold air towards its center , slows and then heads EAST Why anyone in late Feb , with a NEG NAO ,a center moving to the BM and High in SE Canada would think that this is nothing more than an area wide cold air rain is lost on me . The Euro in the end may be wrong , but its wanted to snow on Long Island in the past few weeks , I think in the end this is no different . These storms have all come to the BM recently . The NAO is NEG , and not just at 500 mb also climo isnt againt you yet either in late FEB . So my feeling is I like the Control run , its been good seeing these systems unfold early and then other models have rallied to it , I ignore the GFS outside 72 hours and could care less if it showed 2 ft of snow or 2 inches of rain . Yes the air mass is marginal in front of it , but we have not been in a warm pattern since Jan 20 , and these systems have trended colder in the end not warmer IMO . and HPC has upped the precip totals to reflect the system developing and moving up the coast near the BM http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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