MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Gefs was rain as well correct? Don't have time to look it up right now Looks like it. We are still 6 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Do not use the euro for precip type 6 days out , Look to it for the track and that's it The BL problems are a week away no sense even discussing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Is it possible the models are not picking up on the block yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The models are suffering from pushed backed itis with the next storm always looking better until we get close enough to see that it's not. Hopefully, we get a shot at something early in March when the MJO gets into the COD and the PNA spikes. The stronger MJO wave into phase 4 than previously forecast will keep the SE Ridge a player through the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 ^^ We are still 6 days out. It still could trend favorable for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Day 10 euro is sexy. Too bad it's day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 ^^ We are still 6 days out. It still could trend favorable for the area. The problem is that a more amplified solution will be too warm around NYC and the coast with the SE Ridge in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The problem is that a more amplified solution will be too warm around NYC and the coast with the SE Ridge in place. 12zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA144.gif I agree. The fact that the gfs ensemble mean was warmer than the operational is very telling, we can throw out the 12z gfs operational. The gefs, euro, nogaps, ukmet, ggem, and jma all show a rainstorm. A definite outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Let's get the precip on the field first and then we can worry about the cold air as we get closer. If I remember.. the blizzard was a rainstorm 4-5 days out...just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I agree. The fact that the gfs ensemble mean was warmer than the operational is very telling, we can throw out the 12z gfs operational. The gefs, euro, nogaps, ukmet, ggem, and jma all show a rainstorm. A definite outlier. How can you tell the Ukie is rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The models are suffering from pushed backed itis with the next storm always looking better until we get close enough to see that it's not. Hopefully, we get a shot at something early in March when the MJO gets into the COD and the PNA spikes. The stronger MJO wave into phase 4 than previously forecast will keep the SE Ridge a player through the next 10 days. The development of west based NAO blocking will also be important to the forecast. Right now I think the Feb 26th-March 10th period holds the most potential for a warning criteria event. After we kill off the MJO wave and get a +PNA/-NAO spike toward the end of the month, that's generally a conducive signal at this time of year. The connection of the SE ridge nwd to the Canadian ridge is not favorable for an east coast snowstorm NYC southwestward for this weekend. Maybe a couple inches at best. NW folks could do well, and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 How can you tell the Ukie is rain ?the cold air is lacking, even with the low taking the track the ukie shows, you would still have boundary layer problems and the thicknesses are not impressive either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The development of west based NAO blocking will also be important to the forecast. Right now I think the Feb 26th-March 10th period holds the most potential for a warning criteria event. After we kill off the MJO wave and get a +PNA/-NAO spike toward the end of the month, that's generally a conducive signal at this time of year. The connection of the SE ridge nwd to the Canadian ridge is not favorable for an east coast snowstorm NYC southwestward for this weekend. Maybe a couple inches at best. NW folks could do well, and SNE. Yeah, my guess is that we'll have the best shot at frozen precip for the first week of March or so. It may take the next 7-9 days or to get rid of the SE Ridge so we can capitalize on the west based block and +PNA. It looks like the event around 2-26 will be the last system that will have to contend with the SE Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 18z GFS actually pops a secondary south of Cape Cod at hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 By hr 57 the coastal, now over eastern Canada has completely taken over and the primary over the lakes is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Western energy is still there and hair further south in New Mexico. The low that was the coastal is now in a good 50/50 low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 By hr 81 the low out west is being eaten alive by the confluince. Isobars are baggy down towards the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 123, broad low pressure over Eastern VA. Hr 126 low basically just east of Ocean City, MD. Moderate precip over the area. Stronger low, looks warmer than 12z though. Hr 129 tucked into the coast, all levels above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 123, broad low pressure over Eastern VA. Hr 126 low basically just east of Ocean City, MD. Moderate precip over the area. Stronger low, looks warmer than 12z though. Hr 129 tucked into the coast, all levels above freezing. Looks the same just faster!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 132, broad 996 low south of Long Island, moderate/heavy precip into Southern New England. Big storm for western Mass and northern CT this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looks the same just faster!! Rossi No it's warmer and tucked further into the coast. It takes a bad track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 All rain this run for the greater NYC area. Frozen stuff is restricted to Upstate NY eastward into CT and western Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looks the same just faster!! Rossi This is a horrible run for the nyc metro area, all rain and warm throughout, a 180 from what it had at 12z. Verbatim this is even rain up to orange county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This is a horrible run for the nyc metro area, all rain and warm throughout, a 180 from what it had at 12z. Verbatim this is even rain up to orange county I wouldn't call it horrible. The low was actually stronger and more consolidated. The problem is the lack of cold air. We need this thing to track further south like 12z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 At this point our main concern should just be that the models continue to show a strong storm...precip type at this point is just a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't think the models are reacting properly to the developing blocking and and negative NAO yet - there is cold high pressure to the north to consider which should interact with any coastal that forms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Just goes to show that it takes more than a -NAO to get a snowstorm around here even in February. And like the blizzard in SNE showed and our snowstorm as well, we don't need a -NAO either to produce a big storm. I think those indices are grossly thrown around way too much and have little merit if people just ignore the other factors like the MJO for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 More amped up. Hopefully the surface cools as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't think the models are reacting properly to the developing blocking and and negative NAO yet - there is cold high pressure to the north to consider which should interact with any coastal that forms Is Allan Kasper calling for snow or rain? I think he was spot on with 2/8, but I don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 For both this storm and the one after, you've got the blocking battling with the SE ridge, which probably won't end too well. In this case, you have to have the block up north trends stronger or we get a better 50/50 low to offset the SE ridging. Or as others have mentioned you have a -NAO block battling an unfavorable MJO (the SE ridging). I do think we have a shot the last couple of days of February into early March like others stated with a collection of favorable indicies and less influence from the MJO. The block is expected to get much more expansive, which is always a good sign. However by then we start to battle with the gradually warming averages, so with every good, there's some bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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