IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 96 it's a weak surface low into Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Just from looking at all the features, looks like it's going to cut that primary into the upper midwest and keep it stronger than the 0z run did It dies out as it heads north at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 120 broad, weak surface low over southern Wisconsin, northern IL. No coastal yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 180 broad, weak surface low over southern Wisconsin, northern IL. No coastal yet. At 114, there is a good deal of moisture down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Close call storm in that position rapidly strengthening I would suspect as being snow... problem is the model doesn't show that high pressure over se Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 At 114, there is a good deal of moisture down south. True, 1016 mb low over the Carolinas but heights are very low along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 126, weak surface low off the VA Capes, coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 132, light to moderate rain over the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 132, light to moderate rain over the entire area Continues at hour 138. This run is further north than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 138, light to moderate rain continues. Surface low just SE of the Delmarva. Freezing line NW of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 144, surface low moving due East. Actually looks very similar to the 12z GFS ensemble mean but a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 At 144, 0c line is just south of NYC with the coastal coming up. The coastal moves due East from 138 to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The coastal moves due East from 138 to 144. Yes it does. I deleted my post. Overall, this run is wetter and more north than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 150, coastal moving south of the benchmark. QPF is decent but it's mostly rain. Again, very close to the 12z GFS ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 150, coastal moving south of the benchmark. QPF is decent but it's mostly rain. Again, very close to the 12z GFS ensemble mean. Looks more like the GFS to me than the GEFS. Stronger on this run which is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Now for the second threat, Hr 168 strong cutter into Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Verbatim this is all rain for the metro area, even the suburbs, on the euro. The 12z gfs operational run's major snowstorm is the outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Verbatim this is all rain for the metro area, even the suburbs, on the euro. The 12z gfs operational run's major snowstorm is the outlier The Euro went towards the GFS so it's improving. It's still weaker than the GFS though. The Euro was more amped and more north on this run compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro is low 30's to start and then warms up to the mid to upper 30's for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 192 strong cutter into eastern MN, Western Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Soundings are not warm at all for the 1st .30" of the storm. The next .43" of the storm warms to the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 198, strong surface low into the UP of Michigan. Might be trying to drive this into the block in Eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 204 weak secondary forming in West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Soundings are not warm at all for the 1st .30" of the storm. The next .43" of the storm warms to the upper 30s. yea it's a cold rain, not a torch like the ggem, but still rain. The op gfs is the only model showing a snowstorm, the ukmet and nogaps were rain as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 yea it's a cold rain, not a torch like the ggem, but still rain. The op gfs is the only model showing a snowstorm, the ukmet and nogaps were rain as well The Ukie was close. The Euro was a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 210, surface low just east of the Delmarva. It's a front end thump of wet snow followed by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 216, weak surface low about 50 miles SE of the ACY, rain for the area verbatim. This needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Verbatim this is all rain for the metro area, even the suburbs, on the euro. The 12z gfs operational run's major snowstorm is the outlier It's possible that the early part of the precipitation is WAA snow on the Euro with 850 mb temps around -4°C and 2 meter temps < 0.5°C. Nonetheless, most of the precipitation is rain for the NYC metro area. For now, the GFS appears to be the cold outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 216, weak surface low about 50 miles SE of the ACY, rain for the area verbatim. This needs to be watched. GFS looks quite similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The Ukie was close. The Euro was a step in the right direction.Gefs was rain as well correct? Don't have time to look it up right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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