Febuary 22-24

[MJO812]

Another coastal coming up at 192

[mikemurph44]

The setup at 500mb is very meh. It's just a slighly amplified southern stream wave. Not what you want to see for a big storm threat.

That and the current MJO phase we are in does not support a snowstorm for us. It is an unfavorable phase

[MJO812]

That and the current MJO phase we are in does not support a snowstorm for us. It is an unfavorable phase

 

We have seen snowstorms in an unfavorable MJO phase.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1.48 at Andover, mixture of rain and snow

1.52 at Caldwell, mixture of rain and snow.

1.49 at NYC, mostly rain

Again, you are taking these maps (5-7 days out) too literally. It is a significant amount of something, but the models are wrestling with more factors than they can sort out accurately in this time-frame. We do not yet know exactly what this ends up being and where r/s line sets up.

WX/PT

[NEG NAO]

the 12Z GFS reminds one of this event  - primary runs into block fizzles out over upper midwest  and a  storm develops over the gulf states

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/28-Feb-05-SurfaceMaps.html

[Zir0b]

looking at the h5 map there are so many variables leading up the storm that it's not even worth looking at for another 3 days 

[MJO812]

looking at the h5 map there are so many variables leading up the storm that it's not even worth looking at for another 3 days 

 

We have blocking up north

[MJO812]

Again, you are taking these maps (5-7 days out) too literally. It is a significant amount of something, but the models are wrestling with more factors than they can sort out accurately in this time-frame. We do not yet know exactly what this ends up being and where r/s line sets up.

WX/PT

 

Good post. We first have to see if the other models come on board. The GGEM was similiar at 0z.

[Edge Weather]

Again, you are taking these maps (5-7 days out) too literally. It is a significant amount of something, but the models are wrestling with more factors than they can sort out accurately in this time-frame. We do not yet know exactly what this ends up being and where r/s line sets up.

WX/PT

 

I love posts like this.  I am just saying what the model is saying.  I am not taking anything anyway.  That is what the model said, not me.

[MJO812]

Ukie is on board

[Snow_Miser]

12z UKMET has a 997 mb low just inside the Benchmark.

 

[Edge Weather]

UKMET looks nearly identical and the Control run of the Euro had nearly the same thing this morning.

[Heisy]

I know it's way out there but look at the RH, most of the moisture falls around I-95 before changeover. Interior and SNE could be different. 

[donsutherland1]

The possible weekend storm has definitely improved, both at 500 mb and at the surface for the NYC area. Even as a lot of precipitation falls as rain at LGA, the precipitation transitions to accumulating snow. Bufkit shows around 5" at LGA. In the nearby northern and western suburbs, sleet transitions to snow according to Bufkit with around 8"-9" at HPN. That's just the 12z run of the GFS. It remains to be seen how things will actually play out. The idea that there may be potential is what's important and the GFS isn't the only model hinting at such potential.

[MJO812]

12z Nogaps is on board . It's warm though.

[IsentropicLift]

Per maps on Storm Vista. Surface freezing line is up around High Point, NJ at hour 138 and around I-287 by hour 141. The surface freezing mark never makes it much further south than the I-287 corridor so this run of the GFS is mostly a very wet snow or rain for the city. Storm vista maps also indicate over 1.0" of frozen QPF for almost all of northern NJ and close to the city.

[Isotherm]

Well some good news going forward is the MJO pulse looks to die by D 7 or so in the COD, so it's influence will be very minimal in comparison to other indices. I'm still not crazy about the weekend event, but I'm liking the potential thereafter for late feb into early March as the first real -NAO block of the season could be developing. At this time of year, the NAO's influence on the pattern reaches its peak as well, so if we can get the west based blocking to initiate, late feb-March 10th could be interesting.

For the storm this weekend, we still have a blocking ridge similar to what we saw back in December. Doesn't extend very far north and the high heights of the SE ridge extend nwd into it.



Right now, my thinking is the Sat-Sun event will be primarily a NW NJ to SNE snowstorm, and for NYC/coast/southward, a ceiling of about 3".

Notice how the NAO block evolves by February 28th - much more expansive w/ higher heights up into Greenland. IF this is correct, we're definitely in business for SECS potential in the Feb 26th-March 10th period.


 

•  

[MJO812]

The GGEM looks like it will come up the coast.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[tombo82685]

We have blocking up north which is mos

yes we do, but when the block hooks up with the se ridge it just mitigates it.

[MJO812]

12z GGEM is really warm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[IsentropicLift]

The GFS ensemble mean tracks a low from the NC coast south of the benchmark. It's a bit warmer than the op and gives the area 0.50"-1.00" of precip.

[tombo82685]

I'm going to post this map from storm vista for just a few minutes showing heavy snow over all of northern NJ at hr 141

What is throwing you off is that majority of that precip has fallen already before the 850 line is at that point. That is the 6 hr precip that falls from hr 135-hr141. The line gets to nyc and through at hr 141 so you want to look at hr 141-147, that precip is how much falls when its cold enough. Though there could be some frozen that falls before hr 141.

[mikemurph44]

12z GGEM is really warm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

yep that's a torch

[IsentropicLift]

What is throwing you off is that majority of that precip has fallen already before the 850 line is at that point. That is the 6 hr precip that falls from hr 135-hr141. The line gets to nyc and through at hr 141 so you want to look at hr 141-147, that precip is how much falls when its cold enough. Though there could be some frozen that falls before hr 141.

Yeah sorry I overlooked that. In any event, it's still 0.25"+ frozen for northern NJ and 0.50"+ frozen for NE NJ.

[snywx]

12z GFS smokes the HV.. Too bad this won't be the final outcome but nice to see nonetheless..

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kswf

[IsentropicLift]

12z GFS smokes the HV.. Too bad this won't be the final outcome but nice to see nonetheless..

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kswf

12z GFS is 15.3" of snow at KSWF

 

130223/1800Z 126  11006KT  35.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   19|  0| 81

130223/2100Z 129  10007KT  35.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05   15|  0| 85

130224/0000Z 132  08009KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16   46|  0| 54

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130224/0300Z 135  07010KT  32.1F  SNOW    7:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.147    7:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31  100|  0|  0

130224/0600Z 138  04012KT  29.9F  SNOW   14:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.361   12:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0

130224/0900Z 141  04013KT  29.2F  SNOW   19:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.443   15:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.12  100|  0|  0

130224/1200Z 144  02011KT  28.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110   14:1| 15.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.23  100|  0|  0

 

[IsentropicLift]

12z Euro has initialized

[NEG NAO]

this is heavy rain turning to heavy snow with accumulations at newark on the 12Z GFS

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

[IsentropicLift]

hr 72, suface low over extreme northeast New Mexico

[IsentropicLift]

Through hr 78 the surface low is in nearly the same position as it was at 00z hr 90.