Zir0b Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 GGEM also has a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Chilly rain in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Interesting to see the Euro now. Can anyone recite any changes from 12z with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 50/50 looks good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Runs not done yet- but hr 144 makes if look like it'll be ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looks like it moves due east from 144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Runs not done yet- but hr 144 makes if look like it'll be ots on the postive side the Euro kills the great lakes low faster than the NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro breaks down the 50/50 between 122 and 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro is not enthused yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 6z GFS still shows the potential for a few inches http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfssnowdepth144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The euro control run has better look to it , just away from the coast the set up is more favorable. It's operational is OTS but it's good see a BM track in enough members that it shows up on its control. I don't like coastals that run in toasty BL s on the coastal plain. Will ignore the GFS and wait for the euro over the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 141 city getting crushed. Wet snow bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Moderate precip over the area at 141. Looks like 850's are crashing with the storm inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Coastal coming up at 126 on the GFS Still coming up at 132. Warm though. Looks like rain to start. 850s should crash soon. Heavy heavy precip over our area at hour 138. Big hit for just NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yes, heavy snow for Northwest burbs, possibly all snow there, then everyone goes over to snow. GFS is very consistent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Beautiful. Need this 5 days from now and... The Euro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Heavy snow over NYC at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Heavy snow over NYC at 144 might be heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 might be heavy rain very close call but we have almost a week and ususally the GFS is warm at this time frame! Unusual for a storm in that position not to be colder!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 might be heavy rain Close call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 verbatim, looks like a foot of snow for some of the far NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The setup at 500mb is very meh. It's just a slighly amplified southern stream wave. Not what you want to see for a big storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Beautiful. Need this 5 days from now and... The Euro!!! Control run of the Euro already had this at 0z. Control run did not agree with the operational run this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 might be heavy rain It's not heavy rain at hour 141 into hour 144 for the city... 850s are below zero with heavy precip, 540 line goes through NYC as well as the surface freezing line. At 144 the 540 thickness, the 850 line are well South of the city, and freezing line cuts through the city. That's not heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The setup at 500mb is very meh. It's just a slighly amplified southern stream wave. Not what you want to see for a big storm threat. H5 looks much better than the previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The gfs still looks confused. I think it's struggling with the blocking pattern and the result is a very messy one, let's see if it cleans it up going forward or maybe the other models will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We need the storm to intensify sooner so the temperatures can crash sooner. This seems to have been the general trend with the GFS over the last few model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 1.48 at Andover, mixture of rain and snow 1.52 at Caldwell, mixture of rain and snow. 1.49 at NYC, mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We need the storm to intensify sooner so the temperatures can crash sooner. This seems to have been the general trend with the GFS over the last few model cycles. This. We seem to lose that storm over the lakes. It weakens which would kill the sw flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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