MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 not unless the coastal can intensify and produce its own cold air ................ This or if the storm doesn't get sheared out as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yes you hit the nail on the head that was why I was so skeptical of it at the time. Also if you read Ed Berry at the time, he was very skeptical of one as well. That guy is a genius with ENSO, GWO (which he created), MJO, GLAAM, Kelvin and Rossby waves, etc., he gets confusing at times but is always a good read. The hyping of the -NAO was again overdone, the Atlantic SST profile in September was better than it was in 2011 but was still relatively poor overall, I felt we'd tend more near neutral and negative at times this winter and thats pretty much what has happened but it did not at all have the look of a strongly negative NAO setup at all as we got into September and October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The ensemble means of both the GFS and Euro are colder than the operational runs for this potential.The gfs and euro ensembles are rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 We still are 5 days out from the event . Hopefully the models trend stronger with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 are we talking about friday? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS is still rain, but it's a positive start, and hopefully the start of a trend. Check back 12z wednesday after the EURO, if the models have continued to trend positively, we could have a storm on our hands. Still too early to know anything except that there is potential. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The gfs and euro ensembles are rain I am willing to have an intellectual discussion here, but please don't put out blatantly false information. The GFS ensembles mean is not rain for Friday, and we don't have the surface profile for the Euro ensemble mean, but the 850's are below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Funny how this was "the best setup in 2 years" a couple days ago...typical hype it up in fantasy range, then everything falls apart. MJO Phase 4 is not a good setup for KU snowstorms in February and March. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38386-vendor-forecast-discussion/?p=2115720 That the pattern supported a bomb was not off the mark. Unfortunately, but not too surprisingly given Phase 4, the bomb was too far offshore to produce a KU snowstorm. Having said that, one should not now automatically assume that winter 2012-13 is finished. In fact, I would be surprised if the greater NYC area has seen its last accumulating snow of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Need that primary low over the lakes to weaken. It pumps our sw flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I am willing to have an intellectual discussion here, but please don't put out blatantly false information. The GFS ensembles mean is not rain for Friday, and we don't have the surface profile for the Euro ensemble mean, but the 850's are below zero.They are rain, the boundary layer is too warm. We have had this discussion innumerable times, cold 850's do not guarantee snow, look at the surface profile. Not going to have this argument, this is not snow on the gfs or the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It's not snow right now but if the coastal gets stronger as the days move on, we could see something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It's not snow right now but if the coastal gets stronger as the days move on, we could see something interesting.Exactly, this is a rainstorm right now. We would need strong uvv lifting and dynamic cooling of the column from a strong secondary cyclone to get snow. No models are showing such a scenario right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Why do these models even go out more than 5 days? I'd like to see what % of major storms 5-10 days out actually happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Exactly, this is a rainstorm right now. We would need strong uvv lifting and dynamic cooling of the column from a strong secondary cyclone to get snow. No models are showing such a scenario right now True, but the secondary has been trending stronger in recent runs, and it's not out of the question that it could continue to trend stronger. Likely that this will verify a snow event? probably not. Possible? Absolutely. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 They are rain, the boundary layer is too warm. We have had this discussion innumerable times, cold 850's do not guarantee snow, look at the surface profile. Not going to have this argument, this is not snow on the gfs or the euro Agreed, the primary completely torches the BL. That would have to weaken faster, all else being equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 They are rain, the boundary layer is too warm. We have had this discussion innumerable times, cold 850's do not guarantee snow, look at the surface profile. Not going to have this argument, this is not snow on the gfs or the euro Your analysis is spot on here, not that it really matters considering how many times the gfs will change from now until the event, but with regard to this depiction, you are correct. I am curious about this statement, though. How is it that you've had innumerable discussions being that you have only been a member here for two weeks? You do seem quite comfortable for a new guy with all of those posts already, but innumerable discussions about anything at this stage is impossible unless you have difficulty counting. I was pretty sure you posted here before the mikemurph reincarnation. Now, I'm positve. Will you please tell us your old screen name now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 They are rain, the boundary layer is too warm. We have had this discussion innumerable times, cold 850's do not guarantee snow, look at the surface profile. Not going to have this argument, this is not snow on the gfs or the euro The GFS ensemble mean is not rain. I am looking at the surface temps, which are below freezing on the GFS ensemble mean. So, the GFS ensemble mean has 850's and surface temps below freezing. I am not talking about the GFS operational run. I am speaking of the ensemble mean. The point is that the ensemble mean may be telling us that this storm trends colder. We shall see. I prefer to use the ensemble mean at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Why do these models even go out more than 5 days? I'd like to see what % of major storms 5-10 days out actually happen The Christmas storm this year more or less held up on the models from 8-10 days out with a few shifts. Even this event is still looking similar to what it did 5-6 days ago for places like Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, its up in this area that we lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Coastal low is heading up the coast at 132 hours on the GFS. It's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hr 144 looks to be heavy wet snow to city Hr 147 also. Block really crawls it. But temps are very marginal. That storm rotting over lakes is killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That block does look impressive, NAO will really be taking a dive, I'm actually gonna wait a couple more days and see what models do, it's a little hard to believe that the primary drives so far north. I'm actually surprised so many weenies gave up so easily with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That block does look impressive, NAO will really be taking a dive, I'm actually gonna wait a couple more days and see what models do, it's a little hard to believe that the primary drives so far north. The primary may go that north, what is somewhat suspicious to me is the insane degree of warming in the 850-1000mb layer that occurs between 108-120 hours, a deepening system down in the SE coming from that far away would not likely drive WAA up the coast as the GFS seems to be trying to show. Also there is a high over Canada and a 50/50 low out there, not in the best positions but they are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 What do surface temps looks like for the day 6-7 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That block does look impressive, NAO will really be taking a dive, I'm actually gonna wait a couple more days and see what models do, it's a little hard to believe that the primary drives so far north. I'm actually surprised so many weenies gave up so easily with this. No way you give up on this so far ahead. We all know that the models go back and forth and that the details on any event this far ahead are not reliable per the models. The potential, therefore, is still very much alive for this one and events following it. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 What do surface temps looks like for the day 6-7 storm? Temps in the upper 30's to start. Temps fall to the low 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 What do surface temps looks like for the day 6-7 storm? Why does that matter? We should be worried about weather or not there is a storm on the models, not the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 A lot of blocking on the GFS once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Temps in the upper 30's to start. Temps fall to the low 30's. not bad...we can work with that. verbatim this looks like a marginal snowstorm setup certainly not the worst h5 map i've seen and we're a while out. gotta hope for that primary to be further south/weaker but even as of now it looks to be far enough away and not that strong to completely torch the boundary layer with strong southeast winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 not bad...we can work with that. verbatim this looks like a marginal snowstorm setup certainly not the worst h5 map i've seen and we're a while out. gotta hope for that primary to be further south/weaker but even as of now it looks to be far enough away and not that strong to completely torch the boundary layer with strong southeast winds That primary low surviving so long with that West Coast upper low encroaching on it is really oddball, we can hope that perhaps that can kill that primary earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The primary may go that north, what is somewhat suspicious to me is the insane degree of warming in the 850-1000mb layer that occurs between 108-120 hours, a deepening system down in the SE coming from that far away would not likely drive WAA up the coast as the GFS seems to be trying to show. Also there is a high over Canada and a 50/50 low out there, not in the best positions but they are there. Those major players have on the Euro for 5 days now : the 50/50 and the High. so long as the GL low transfers early enough to BM then we are looking at loads of potential. fair statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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