Chrisjmcjr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Did not see one open but the euro & gfs has be showing a storm for this time period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This is the next timeframe to watch IMO. Guidance has been suggesting for a -NAO block to establish itself over Canada, which would provide some support for a colder solution with this storm system. The overall set up is overall pretty favorable for a storm. With an active STJ still, this threat needs to be closely watched. The 12z ECMWF gave NYC 6" of so of snow from this system per the Accuweather Pro Snow Maps, and more N and W. The Upgraded GGEM also has a front end thump of snow for the area before it changes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 GFS now looks very similar to the euro and the Canadian. This storm looks pretty wintry on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The GFS is back to showing the big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DT already bullish..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tonight's gfs sends it into the block and 50/50 low, which it loves to do for some reason in the long range. A lot can go wrong though, if the 50/50 is weaker or displaced or the block is weaker, then it could easier go further north and torch us. I'm not sold on this storm, I'd rather focus on any imminent threats instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow. What an incredibly blocky run. I still love the 23rd threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What about the 0z GFS ensembles and the 0z Euro that's coming out now? Info would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tonights GGEM (which is now relevant after the upgrades) has a nice hit with secondary development very far south and then continuing to the northeast. It would, at the very least, be a significant front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro has an absolute beast of a storm for the entire country tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thanks, CooL and earthlight. What are the synoptic features looking like on the Euro? (Miller A, phasing, vorts, etc.) Any possible analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thanks, CooL and earthlight. What are the synoptic features looking like on the Euro? (Miller A, phasing, vorts, etc.) Any possible analogs? I really have no idea lol. All i know is the setup is real, and the blocking showing up is really good. After the storm, both the euro and gfs continue the -NAO. Euro has a classssic block at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I wonder why no one else is mentioning this great run of the Euro, even in the other regional forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow what a signal more than a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I wonder why no one else is mentioning this great run of the Euro, even in the other regional forums. probably because of exactly what the next post states, it's a week out. these great storms and patterns are always a week to 10 days out. look at what all the models were saying last weekend about this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You gotta love the significant winter storm potential with the STJ, closed low, and CAD for accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You gotta love the significant winter storm potential with the STJ, closed low, and CAD for accumulating snows. Agreed. As modeled, I think this is the best set up of the winter for big time snows. But the models have not been very good at keeping things consistent in this range..and this storm is still 2-3 big troughs away. So I'm not too excited yet given how much can change still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You gotta love the significant winter storm potential with the STJ, closed low, and CAD for accumulating snows. UV_GZ_UU_VV_216_0250.gif QQ_GZ_UU_VV_216_0500.gif PT_PN_216_0000.gif Too bad it's so far out in the future. If the blocking can really set up and the storm stays robust, it's a great pattern. Whatever can finally slow down the pattern is a plus in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Agreed. As modeled, I think this is the best set up of the winter for big time snows. But the models have not been very good at keeping things consistent in this range..and this storm is still 2-3 big troughs away. So I'm not too excited yet given how much can change still. Agree. We need the actual storm and pattern to verify in a manner similar to the forecast guidance which is still a long way out. But the potential is there if we can get the STJ, closed low, and blocking to come together for a significant winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Too bad it's so far out in the future. If the blocking can really set up and the storm stays robust, it's a great pattern. Whatever can finally slow down the pattern is a plus in my book. Yeah, all you can really ask for this far out is potential. All the rest is wait and see how the pattern actually evolves as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Too bad it's so far out in the future. If the blocking can really set up and the storm stays robust, it's a great pattern. Whatever can finally slow down the pattern is a plus in my book. The interesting thing about it is that we don't really need the pattern to slow down as much as we usually would, so long as that storm ahead of it becomes the block as the medium range guidance is strongly hinting it will. The trough/vorticity for the Feb 22 storm system can then be as strong/fast as it wants underneath that block as it moves into the Central US because it will be forced to redevelop underneath it at some point. I used the GGEM below for an illustration, but you can check out the 06z GFS for another example. The trough initially is incredibly energetic and it looks like it will be a cutter straight into Wisconsin...but even being all wrapped up/strong...it is still forced underneath the blocking. So it's that feature out ahead of it that is immensely important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 One thing that has me a little concerned is that real -NAO block and 50/50 low may be too far east, for this setup, With the low already fully phased over MId-West: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The GFS allows this thing to cut north of us, not buying it for a second. Gives Chicago a blizzard this run and most of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The GFS allows this thing to cut north of us, not buying it for a second. Gives Chicago a blizzard this run and most of New England. Given the H5 pattern, it makes sense. The 50/50 is pretty weak so I could definitely see a more powerful low cutting to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The block is less pronounced this run for this storm to track south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 No confluence on the gfs, thats also a big problem for later next week. The euro for instance had like a 1040mb hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Per HM in the Philly thread: Also, let me just, for the sake of hype (lol), say this: If the NAO can become more defined than what, say, the GFS portrays, I am prepared to up the probability of a KU storm in our area. At this time, I am holding the idea from yesterday and still favoring something "sub KU levels" for our area but notable/significant (like a 6-12" type of snow). Between the next set of Pac waves and NAO, there is definitely a chance this entire things trends more south and east initially before it jumps to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The CMC also has a miller B for the first cutter around mid-week. It's a rain event for coastal sections verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro isn't going to be like the GFS for the 22nd -23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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