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February 18th-19th Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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Bo gonna get crushed. 12z NAM clown map even throws some weenie snows into northern IL (0.5-1.5" amounts). We'll see on that. 

 

attachicon.gif2:18 12z NAM 48 hr snowfall.gif

wooo hooo! :pimp:

Even tho NAM has performed poorly in general this season, it has done well all Winter here with re: to lake effect and lake enhancement events. 

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wooo hooo! :pimp:

Even tho NAM has performed poorly in general this season, it has done well all Winter here with re: to lake effect and lake enhancement events. 

 

Yeah, NAM has been subpar this winter...but it's close in now, and seems to match APX's thoughts now. Enjoy the storm. :)

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The Hi-res WRF NMM is indicating about a 3-4 hour period of decent steady snow for the likes of MKE and ORD tonight, and I've noticed it does pretty well with precip type within 24 hours.  It pegged last week's clipper as mostly a rain event for the region until the backend snow showers.

 

Dynamic cooling ftw tonight!

 

Looks like a legit shot at 1-2" tonight.

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Good luck to you guys. I'll enjoy my cold stratiform. :cry:

 

Haha, I doubt we'll see much other than a quick changeover to white slop.  Would be very surprised if we get anything more than a dusting in the grass.  Some of the banding shown on some of the high-res models is interesting, but think they're way overdone.

 

Hard to believe it could be snowing here in 6hrs.  It's 56 out there right now.

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OK, I get the fact that it snows here, but how can you issue only a WWA when you're forecasting 9-12 plus inches in 36 hours??

 

 

TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.
ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW. BREEZY. TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW IN THE EVENING. AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER. TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 11. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...COLDER. SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE

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WHERE TO GO WITH HEADLINES...CURRENTLY HAVE NO WEATHER PARAMETERS   (12/24 SNOW ACCUMS/WINDS...ETC) FORECAST TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA   THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH 24   HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30   MPH AND RESULTING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...COULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT TO   ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNINGS BASED ON IMPACTS. BUT WOULD PREFER TO   NOT STRAP LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WITH A SLEW OF WARNINGS AT THIS   POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES. SO FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A   WARNING IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWFALL IS MORE CERTAIN.   WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN    VALID LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR A COMBINATION   OF MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW ON TUESDAY. LATER SHIFTS   CAN UPGRADE TO WARNINGS WHERE THE NEED ARISES.    
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OK, I get the fact that it snows here, but how can you issue only a WWA when you're forecasting 9-12 plus inches in 36 hours??

TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.

ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW. BREEZY. TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW

ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS

10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS

UP TO 35 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW IN THE EVENING. AREAS

OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER. TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW

ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 11. NORTHWEST WINDS

15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...COLDER. SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE

The key is "36 hours". I believe thats an advisory for Detroit even.
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OK, I get the fact that it snows here, but how can you issue only a WWA when you're forecasting 9-12 plus inches in 36 hours??

 

 

TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.

ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW. BREEZY. TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW

ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS

10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS

UP TO 35 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. BLOWING SNOW IN THE EVENING. AREAS

OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER. TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW

ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 11. NORTHWEST WINDS

15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...COLDER. SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE

 

I know BUF's warning criteria is pretty stringent (8"/12 hrs). Those amounts wouldn't get a warning there either.

 

Btw...I missed the back story Bo. Why did you move from Indiana?

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WHERE TO GO WITH HEADLINES...CURRENTLY HAVE NO WEATHER PARAMETERS   (12/24 SNOW ACCUMS/WINDS...ETC) FORECAST TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA   THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH 24   HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30   MPH AND RESULTING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...COULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT TO   ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNINGS BASED ON IMPACTS. BUT WOULD PREFER TO   NOT STRAP LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WITH A SLEW OF WARNINGS AT THIS   POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES. SO FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A   WARNING IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWFALL IS MORE CERTAIN.   WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN    VALID LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR A COMBINATION   OF MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW ON TUESDAY. LATER SHIFTS   CAN UPGRADE TO WARNINGS WHERE THE NEED ARIses

 

The key is "36 hours". I believe thats an advisory for Detroit even.

Oh OK.... :lol:

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I know BUF's warning criteria is pretty stringent (8"/12 hrs). Those amounts wouldn't get a warning there either.

 

Btw...I missed the back story Bo. Why did you move from Indiana?

Well.... I was in the position to move anywhere I wanted. I have no family, not anchored to any one spot.  I grew up in N IN and decided to just go where my passion was (aka the snow) . So I did a little research and made  a couple road trips, found an area that met all I was looking for and just made the move!  Got here Sept 21st.  Have a nice house on 5 acres of woods in a small village where you don't even lock your house up.  I couldn't be happier here.

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Well.... I was in the position to move anywhere I wanted. I have no family, not anchored to any one spot.  I grew up in N IN and decided to just go where my passion was (aka the snow) . So I did a little research and made  a couple road trips, found an area that met all I was looking for and just made the move!  Got here Sept 21st.  Have a nice house on 5 acres of woods in a small village where you don't even lock your house up.  I couldn't be happier here.

 

Well, you're living the dream. At the very least, I'd like to one day have a cottage up in the snowbelt, if not outright live there. Finding a job is the biggest impediment though.

 

How come you didn't end up choosing Keweenaw? Locally I think they average close to 250". 

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Even though the cold front hasn't passed through, we've already dropped 10 degrees back to 46 due to the precip falling into relatively dry air.  Actual cold front about to pass.  Temp has already dropped back into the upper 30s in Muscatine.  They hit 55 earlier. 

 

Also see that it's snowing in Cedar Rapids now.

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Well, you're living the dream. At the very least, I'd like to one day have a cottage up in the snowbelt, if not outright live there. Finding a job is the biggest impediment though.

 

How come you didn't end up choosing Keweenaw? Locally I think they average close to 250". 

Initially I did want to move there, but I do have 2 young nieces in Cinci, OH area that I didn't want to be too far away from.  Here, they can come stay Summers with me and some Winter breaks as well. I had no family in N IN I should have said.

It was a good compromise.  This area is plenty remote for my taste.

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Initially I did want to move there, but I do have 2 young nieces in Cinci, OH area that I didn't want to be too far away from.  Here, they can come stay Summers with me and some Winter breaks as well. I had no family in N IN I should have said.

It was a good compromise.  This area is plenty remote for my taste.

 

Cool. Glad everything's worked out for you. I've been enjoying your pics too. :)

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Even though the cold front hasn't passed through, we've already dropped 10 degrees back to 46 due to the precip falling into relatively dry air.  Actual cold front about to pass.  Temp has already dropped back into the upper 30s in Muscatine.  They hit 55 earlier. 

 

Also see that it's snowing in Cedar Rapids now.

 

Good luck on getting some snow! GFS still showing it around here after 9pm tonight.

 

Edit: Cooling off here - at 45°, but it's due to the lake breeze that has kicked in.

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Good luck on getting some snow! GFS still showing it around here after 9pm tonight.

 

Edit: Cooling off here - at 45°, but it's due to the lake breeze that has kicked in.

 

Thanks, you too.  DVN down to 37 now.  The DVN radar shows the melting layer already close to the surface from DVN points west.  Still a few thousand ft up over us here.  Snowing in Muscatine now.

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Looks like it should be snowing on the west end of DVN now. Mainly dry here, maybe a few sprinkles. Wind off the lake is helping cooling it off faster. Down to 43°.

 

One of the DVN mets just posted on fb that it's snowing heavily just north of DVN. 

 

Temps tanking here with steady moderate rain.  Down to 40.  Already a 16 degree temp drop since noon.

 

EDIT:  0.25" of rain here so far.

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Some lightning strikes over southeast Iowa where it's all snow, so some thundersnow there.  Another report of quarter to half dollar flakes in Burlington IA. 

 

38 with moderate rain here.  Should be changing over shortly.  All snow already in DVN.

 

EDIT:  Large flakes at my dads on the east side of the QC.

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