cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 12z GFS and 18z NAM showing snow in S WI and the far northern and western suburbs of Chicagoland. In fact most of the moisture on the NAM comes in here as the column is dropping into the lower 30s. Little bit of snow for Cyclone too. Fingers crossed!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The thermals with this storm are really interesting. With the arctic high pressure locked in place across Quebec, temps are going to likely be below freezing when the precipitation start in Toronto. So ZR or PL. However, because the storm is occluding, most of the mid level warming gets shut off, even though SW winds at the surface are eventually going to bring 2M temps above freezing. So it's quite possible we could have a ZR/PL -> WTSN transition. Don't see that every day. Hopefully we'll get an inch of snow behind the system. Looksl ike there could be a flash freeze Tuesday night with highs in the low 20s expected on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Wouldn't be shocked at a few spots in northern IL getting up to an 1" in spots with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Wouldn't be shocked at a few spots in northern IL getting up to an 1" in spots with this. That exactly what the GFS says now. Even closer to 2" in McHenry Co. Blackrock looks to pull off 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I'm hoping to see 2 or 3 flakes here. Highly doubtful. Kinda impressive though, that this system looks to get below 990mb on its journey through the eastern U.P./northern lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 Could be looking at an inch, I believe every thread I have started recently I have seen at least an inch, however I wouldn't be surprised if it was a 5-10 flake regime either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I'm thinking 5-10" here Mon night/Wed time frame. The bigger deal may be the blowing snow. There's an awful lot of powder lying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I'm thinking 5-10" here Mon night/Wed time frame. The bigger deal may be the blowing snow. There's an awful lot of powder lying around. Looks that way. It's funny, you live within 250 miles of most of the posters on this sub-forum, but average like 3 times the amount of snow. As a kid I always used to jokingly curse the settlers of Detroit for focusing our states economy and population around the lowest average snowfall location in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looks that way. It's funny, you live within 250 miles of most of the posters on this sub-forum, but average like 3 times the amount of snow. As a kid I always used to jokingly curse the settlers of Detroit for focusing our states economy and population around the lowest average snowfall location in the state. Today my forecast was a 20% chance of flurries and I got 2.5". It's really a small micro climate along the shore up here. I think I'm around 80-90" for the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looks that way. It's funny, you live within 250 miles of most of the posters on this sub-forum, but average like 3 times the amount of snow. As a kid I always used to jokingly curse the settlers of Detroit for focusing our states economy and population around the lowest average snowfall location in the state. Today my forecast was a 20% chance of flurries and I got 2.5". It's really a small micro climate along the shore up here. I think I'm around 80-90" for the season so far. Most of northern lower averages 80-130 inches, Kalkaska and a few other spots are close to 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Most of northern lower averages 80-130 inches, Kalkaska and a few other spots are close to 180. Of course this is just an averagebut this is what APX has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 would have liked this winter tho: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Most of northern lower averages 80-130 inches, Kalkaska and a few other spots are close to 180. Of course this is just an averagebut this is what APX has. Annual_snowAvg.png Is there some sort of downslope effect in NE lower south of Alpena? It seems odd that most of those places average AOB what Detroit would see in a normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Is there some sort of downslope effect in NE lower south of Alpena? It seems odd that most of those places average AOB what Detroit would see in a normal winter. Yes, you're exactly right. It plays a huge role. That, plus the obvious loss of lake MI's influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Most of northern lower averages 80-130 inches, Kalkaska and a few other spots are close to 180. Of course this is just an averagebut this is what APX has. Annual_snowAvg.png Is there some sort of downslope effect in NE lower south of Alpena? It seems odd that most of those places average AOB what Detroit would see in a normal winter. Minimal LES and just north of the usual synoptic storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Minimal LES and just north of the usual synoptic storm tracks. Not sure I buy the second offered explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Well, the NAM basically yields backend flakes at best, and the GFS offers 1-2" it looks like. What to believe? The NWS has it right, going with about a half inch, a good compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Is there some sort of downslope effect in NE lower south of Alpena? It seems odd that most of those places average AOB what Detroit would see in a normal winter. There is. They do better than us in number of snowcover days, and it's beautiful country up there, but I would NEVER want to live "up north" and get no more snow than Detroit on average. Its actually fascinating to check the daily reports and see how often the snow is deeper in SE MI than that portion of NE MI. I have noticed this the last few years. We actually embarrassed them with snowfall from 2007-08 thru 2010-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I actually havent followed this system as I had it set as all rain here with lake effect snow showers the next day, but looking at the latest model runs it appears it may end as snow and then as the storm wraps up, perhaps a widespread area of light snow may develop Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Is there some sort of downslope effect in NE lower south of Alpena? It seems odd that most of those places average AOB what Detroit would see in a normal winter. When you take LES out of the equation, most places in the state only average 40-60 inches per season. So that's probably a better reason for the lower averages (lack of significant LES) than downsloping, although I'm sure it's a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 When you take LES out of the equation, most places in the state only average 40-60 inches per season. So that's probably a better reason for the lower averages (lack of significant LES) than downsloping, although I'm sure it's a factor. I think downsloping's the bigger factor. Taking topography out of the equation, latitude alone should bring those areas of NE lower closer to 50". As a comparison, here in Ontario, the areas just NE of Toronto, that don't see much LES, average around 60". Just to clarify, I understand lack of LES reduces totals in NE lower. But for totals to be THAT LOW, there has to be another factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Alpena doesn't get as much due to poor LES trajectories, usually being W or NW. Occasionally they will get a NE flow event but it is rare. As for synoptic influences they are pretty much in the same boat as the rest of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Oh and for Chicago, DAB with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I think downsloping's the bigger factor. Taking topography out of the equation, latitude alone should bring those areas of NE lower closer to 50". As a comparison, here in Ontario, the areas just NE of Toronto, that don't see much LES, average around 60". Just to clarify, I understand lack of LES reduces totals in NE lower. But for totals to be THAT LOW, there has to be another factor. The downsloping influences for eastern MI are referenced all the time in APX's afd's, so you're right, it's a big factor. BTW... this event is gonna produce up here. A watch is in place for upwards of a foot of snow. 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND POOR VISIBILITY. so no doubt with a serious L Superior connection and prolonged trajectories, someone will see 15"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The downsloping influences for eastern MI are referenced all the time in APX's afd's, so you're right, it's a big factor. BTW... this event is gonna produce up here. A watch is in place for upwards of a foot of snow. 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND POOR VISIBILITY. so no doubt with a serious L Superior connection and prolonged trajectories, someone will see 15"+. How much snow would you say you have had this winter so far Bo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 How much snow would you say you have had this winter so far Bo? I'd say 80+. Gaylord is right around 100". They've been hit a few times early in the season that I wasn't and I've gotten some later events they didn't but I still feel they've had more. Traverse city is sitting only at 51" (well below), but I can remember getting nailed numerous times when they were shut out completely. Overall, my research paid off and I picked a spot that get's NW, NNW, W, WNW, and WSW flow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I'd say 80+. Gaylord is right around 100". They've been hit a few times I didn't early in the season and I've gotten some events they didn't but I still feel they've had more. Traverse city is sitting only at 51" (well below), but I can remember getting nailed numerous times when they were shut out completely. Overall, my research paid off and I picked a spot that get's NW, NNW, W, WNW, and WSW flow events. 80" is very nice, with the snow you have coming too, excellent research done by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 80" is very nice, with the snow you have coming too, excellent research done by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Bo gonna get crushed. 12z NAM clown map even throws some weenie snows into northern IL (0.5-1.5" amounts). We'll see on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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