snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Still not a complete non-event for YYZ if temps can stay down. 3-6" possible? Obviously the next system will be larger. FWIW The Weather Network has us for about 6-7" for this system. 0z EURO/12z GFS we'd be lucky to get a sloppy inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro definitely trending west with this storm, a couple of inches of snow after initial rain/mix is not out of the question if the Euro is sniffing a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro definitely trending west with this storm, a couple of inches of snow after initial rain/mix is not out of the question if the Euro is sniffing a trend. It looks like it puts slightly more emphasis on the southern stream part compared to the last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro definitely trending west with this storm, a couple of inches of snow after initial rain/mix is not out of the question if the Euro is sniffing a trend. Probably enough snow to cover any blades of grass showing up underneath the trees here. Edit: GFS would suggest about 3" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We ride the line but the 12z EURO is somewhat cooler than the 0z run for YYZ. Probably a mess of p-types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We ride the line but the 12z EURO is somewhat cooler than the 0z run for YYZ. Probably a mess of p-types. When is this forecast to start? Early Tuesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GEM goes nuts with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 When is this forecast to start? Early Tuesday morning? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6z GFS has about 0.4" QPF as all snow Tuesday morning in Toronto before we change over to rain, but the thermal margins are razor thin. +0.3c at 900mb at 12z Tue. A few tenths warmer and this is more FZRA and less SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This one looks like a Wawa, Ontario special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 This one looks like a Wawa, Ontario special. Maybe I should move this thread to the Environmental Canada weather forum (if they have one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 By a quick look at the 12z, the 540 line seems to jump eastward quicker than the precip for the DTW region for this run. Certainly a step in the snowier direction for our region never the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 By a quick look at the 12z, the 540 line seems to jump eastward quicker than the precip for the DTW region for this run. Certainly a step in the snowier direction for our region never the less. Sfc temps are going to be too warm to support snow. The depth on the warm air doesn't look that impressive from the soundings I've seen for Toronto, so maybe you could squeeze out WTSN. But it's going to have a hell of a time trying to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Local Toronto CTV is saying precip starts in Toronto by 10pm Monday. Would seem to go against both the GFS and the Canadian models which imply precip starts around 1am Tuesday. They're also calling for freezing rain for the Tuesday morning comute, which would be awful if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Local Toronto CTV is saying precip starts in Toronto by 10pm Monday. Would seem to go against both the GFS and the Canadian models which imply precip starts around 1am Tuesday. They're also calling for freezing rain for the Tuesday morning comute, which would be awful if true. Almost seems like we will see more snow tonight from flurries than the Feb. 19th/22-23rd events. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Haven't been following this one at all but it looks like both the gfs and nam have significant post frontal/backlash snows starting to show up for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It gonna rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 nam hrs 54 57 60....maybe a lil reach around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It's all rain for here, per 0z NAM soundings. Low level is absolutely scorched (51 hours: 850 temp of -0.6C, 975 temp of 5.5C) . While cooler for CMH, it's solidly wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 nam hrs 54 57 60....maybe a lil reach around? Those maps might be misleading. I'm guessing that some would fall before it gets cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It's all rain for here, per 0z NAM soundings. Low level is absolutely scorched. While cooler for CMH, it's solidly wet. I see you're conveniently ignoring the 0.01 as snow for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I see you're conveniently ignoring the 0.01 as snow for LAF. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 nam hrs 54 57 60....maybe a lil reach around? Per NAM soundings, it's all snow here, but I don't buy it. You can get snowy cold fronts, but the antecedent airmass is usually much colder than what's occurring here. SW winds at the sfc is a RA/SN mixture at best for the majority of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Per NAM soundings, it's all snow here, but I don't buy it. You can get snowy cold fronts, but the antecedent airmass is usually much colder than what's occurring here. SW winds at the sfc is a RA/SN mixture at best for the majority of the event. Damn 3 hr intervals. Actually gfs looked better on the surface maps at 12z and it only had .8 snow.... so yea, probably typical backlash flurries here....or as zwyts calls it....'car topper' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Per NAM soundings, it's all snow here, but I don't buy it. You can get snowy cold fronts, but the antecedent airmass is usually much colder than what's occurring here. SW winds at the sfc is a RA/SN mixture at best for the majority of the event. Latest Canadian shows mostly rain and precipitation not starting until about 1-2am Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Latest Canadian shows mostly rain and precipitation not starting until about 1-2am Tuesday. Think there's the chance for a bit of SN or ZR right at the beginning but eventually we're going to warm the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Another 34 degree all rain event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The thermals with this storm are really interesting. With the arctic high pressure locked in place across Quebec, temps are going to likely be below freezing when the precipitation start in Toronto. So ZR or PL. However, because the storm is occluding, most of the mid level warming gets shut off, even though SW winds at the surface are eventually going to bring 2M temps above freezing. So it's quite possible we could have a ZR/PL -> WTSN transition. Don't see that every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 New runs seem to be changing it to snow in oh, hopefully a trend that stays that way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 12z GFS and 18z NAM showing snow in S WI and the far northern and western suburbs of Chicagoland. In fact most of the moisture on the NAM comes in here as the column is dropping into the lower 30s. Little bit of snow for Cyclone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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