PatrickSumner Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm confident on a high impact storm in the center of the country...naso confident we see anything other than heavy rain. Storm 1 will trend quicker and unphased and storm 2 will trend warm and west. Go away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just couldn't wait to get this inside of 120hrs. Some will NEVER learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm confident on a high impact storm in the center of the country...naso confident we see anything other than heavy rain. Storm 1 will trend quicker and unphased and storm 2 will trend warm and west. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Little run to run continuity, I'm not getting bent out of shape over a less than ideal solution from any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just couldn't wait to get this inside of 120hrs. Some will NEVER learn. Is this a shot at the thread? There's still a storm and it'll still require discussion even if it doesn't end up being a widespread blizzard or anything approaching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 More northern stream domination. Moisture starved clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm confident on a high impact storm in the center of the country...naso confident we see anything other than heavy rain. Storm 1 will trend quicker and unphased and storm 2 will trend warm and west. Timing/spacing issues are certainly big questions for the second event. But if the first one trends faster, why couldn't the second one trend faster too? (just wondering out loud) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Timing/spacing issues are certainly big questions for the second event. But if the first one trends faster, why couldn't the second one trend faster too? (just wondering out loud) totally different animals with the 500mb vort....storm 1 is weak sauce, storm 2 is a big dog that will dig deep into the baja region and those always take their time. FWIW, Euro continues to advertise a large system with #2...torching just east of Chicago but looks to be occluding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 totally different animals with the 500mb vort....storm 1 is weak sauce, storm 2 is a big dog that will dig deep into the baja region and those always take their time. FWIW, Euro continues to advertise a large system with #2...torching just east of Chicago but looks to be occluding. Euro seems a lot more amplified than the GFS. Surface low starts out a lot farther south but then makes a hard left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro seems a lot more amplified than the GFS. Surface low starts out a lot farther south but then makes a hard left. The OP GFS was very close and a few of the ensemble members were tanks. I think even the lamest evolution will be a healthy storm with the ceiling being something monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Only you and I (and a few others) can understand why this is chuckle-worthy... If that is the case, I prefer a miss to the southeast. I don't feel like seeing puddles and mud yet. +1 I think the first system will put down a fairly narrow band of snow. Hopefully enough members can be under that band. 12z GFS would be ok with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Stormy Weather? http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/02/stormy-weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Twn 14 day forecast got 6-8" here on Tues lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 GGEM - doesn't look anyone posted that one. Kind of goofy looking like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 18z GFS churns out quite the turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 18z GFS churns out quite the turd. The GFS was also not excited about last week's storm until about <72 hour out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The GFS was also not excited about last week's storm until about <72 hour out... You just pwned me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You just pwned me. Haha. The GFS has it's good days, but last week early on it was not doing so hot. Anyway, I think a snow band about 75-100 miles wide from IL somewhere to your area is probably in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Haha. The GFS has it's good days, but last week early on it was not doing so hot. Anyway, I think a snow band about 75-100 miles wide from IL somewhere to your area is probably in the works. OHweather's ideas about the excessive progressiveness of the stream of s/ws enter N America indeed might prevent any substantial phasing between the two streams. A lot of the 18z GEFS members are depicting an unphased basic fropa, with little upper level dynamics. Only thing I've ruled out is a deep storm cutting towards GRB or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I bet storm 2 will one of those where the model solutions don't adequately take into account the effects of moisture robbing convection in the warm sector. Always happens with storms that track W-E rather than SW-NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS=BLEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 0z GFS continuing to keep the polar branch a bit too far north to phase with the sub-tropical branch...can already see the energy for the next storm gathering over the southwest however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 EURO starting to look like the GFS now. Narrow band of snow for somewhere in the subforum. Probably a 2-4"er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like another round of "light wintry mix" BS with 2" of back-end lake effect on top of a skating rink. Luckily parents will be back from vacation to salt/sand their driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Shame this turned into northern dominated/late phased goo for many. Though I guess, have to sacrifice one to get the other. Maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Becoming more apparent this will be a fail. Oh well. Our gazes have been focused on the future anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Becoming more apparent this will be a fail. Oh well. Our gazes have been focused on the future anyway. Yep. Looks to make for an exciting afternoon-evening rush though. Could be another seriously slippery mess here. There's enough frost in the ground here that any running/standing water on the roads freezes instantly before it has a chance to run off or dry out. It's especially hazardous when you get an insulating layer of back-end snow on top of the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Becoming more apparent this will be a fail. Oh well. Our gazes have been focused on the future anyway. Still not a complete non-event for YYZ if temps can stay down. 3-6" possible? Obviously the next system will be larger. FWIW The Weather Network has us for about 6-7" for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Becoming more apparent this will be a fail. Oh well. Our gazes have been focused on the future anyway. A fail would be no storm or all rain. Certainly not looking like a big event, but it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 A fail would be no storm or all rain. Certainly not looking like a big event, but it's something. My standards have been beefed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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