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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV


klw

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Just a few hours away from the 2 year anniversary of the greatest cold front in NH history.  My station all time max gust of 55mph was set at 2:03am, with a 10 minute average of 36mph.

I was patiently waiting outside to welcome it and enjoy it and I owe thanks to CardinalWinds, whose post an hour before describing the front was the only reason I stayed up.

 

vp2.jpg

 

 

That 46.2° temp is making me want to avert my eyes.  Hideous!!

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Based purely on persistence and my natural pessimism, I lean towards Dryslot's thinking that it will probably miss NNE, or at the very least, my part of NNE. What is likely to happen is that it is too far east for me but nails NH and ME and then sets up a wicked NW flow that nails PF in Stowe with endless upslope while I'm still looking at the same crusty, icy 8 inches of snow. At this point, I'm just hoping for the cirrus to at least make it feel like there is an outside shot at a snow shower.

LOL...sounds like pessimism to me ;)

Our synoptic time is coming.

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now now , lets stay on topic.  i hope the secondary can pop a tad earlier but gyx really hitting somerset and franklin counties for 6-9 on the am disco

 

i hope i'm far enough NE to cash in a bit. i bet the top of wildcat squeezes out a 10 spot.  nice ESE fetch upslope right into their fanny

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Congrats, That may help you out, The county is catching up quickly, They will do well with this one to

Seems like that happens every year. They tend to miss out on the blockbusters (at least the ones that everyone else in NE is paying attention to), but quietly pile up the numbers and are almost always up there in the end.

 

I'm definitely not liking the wetter and wetter solutions for tonight. I was hoping that if we weren't going to get snow we could at least squeak by with a couple light showers with the fropa. The 12z NAM looks pretty juiced, FWIW.

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Seems like that happens every year. They tend to miss out on the blockbusters (at least the ones that everyone else in NE is paying attention to), but quietly pile up the numbers and are almost always up there in the end.

 

I'm definitely not liking the wetter and wetter solutions for tonight. I was hoping that if we weren't going to get snow we could at least squeak by with a couple light showers with the fropa. The 12z NAM looks pretty juiced, FWIW.

 

 

It was less here though then at 0z, Looks like its only around .24" qpf as it develops further east

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Congrats, That may help you out, The county is catching up quickly, They will do well with this one to

CAR progged for 8-14" per their AM forecast. I'll be very happy with the 6" shown on the GYX map - MBY right on the line between 4-6 and 6-8. Especially if it's low/no taint. Don't want the snowblower getting rusty, have only run it once since Dec.

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CAR progged for 8-14" per their AM forecast. I'll be very happy with the 6" shown on the GYX map - MBY right on the line between 4-6 and 6-8. Especially if it's low/no taint. Don't want the snowblower getting rusty, have only run it once since Dec.

 

 

I would be happy to, Except i am in the 1-2" range, Its all going to depend how fast the secondary gets going and how soon we cool the BL

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Looking very good for upslope Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Amount of blocking is still questionable, current NAM is very blocked amd would bomb the eastern Champlain Valley.

 

Interesting... I saw Taber had Froude numbers of 1-2 in yesterday afternoon's AFD.  I thought maybe with a more deep layer cyclonic flow that would support higher Froude numbers until some upper level ridging moved in and lowered the inversion level?

 

Either way, 12z GGEM bombs northern VT with QPF which is more widespread than reality but definitely an upslope signature across far northern VT and southern QE in the QPF progs.

 

I really like that it is forecast to take place at night.  Unfortunately I am not working Thursday morning so you won't get any super early snowfall obs from me, but I feel like the events at night can get better organized and usually tend to produce better than daytime upslope events.

 

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Interesting... I saw Taber had Froude numbers of 1-2 in yesterday afternoon's AFD.  I thought maybe with a more deep layer cyclonic flow that would support higher Froude numbers until some upper level ridging moved in and lowered the inversion level?

 

Either way, 12z GGEM bombs northern VT with QPF which is more widespread than reality but definitely an upslope signature across far northern VT and southern QE in the QPF progs.

 

I really like that it is forecast to take place at night.  Unfortunately I am not working Thursday morning so you won't get any super early snowfall obs from me, but I feel like the events at night can get better organized and usually tend to produce better than daytime upslope events.

 

attachicon.gifggem.JPG

Yeah Froude Numbers are very high during the day on Wednesday but are progged to fall off a cliff Wednesday night and into Thursday morning (at least as the wrf run shows now).

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This is not the year for base building apparently. One good storm with a bit of heft to it would make conditions a lot better, but there isn't much time left.

 

 

Getting long in the tooth down this way for riding, Those couple of storms we had earlier this winter would have done it if it did not warm up, Rain,  And melt it all, The blizzard was not as useful as it could have been, To much wind, Snow to dry, Then the 5 days after of above normal temps ruined it

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