dendrite Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 2-4?Yeah...for IZG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I'm actually getting a bit excited for something interesting to happen here, especially Wed into Thursday. The Tuesday stuff looks meh locally, but there's a pretty decent upslope signal for Wednesday (especially afternoon and evening into Wed Night) with deep layer cyclonic flow wrapping sufficient moisture back into the area from the Maritimes. That can be seen in fairly high RH progs and good cyclonic NW flow. All models seem to agree on the larger scale synoptics with areas of vorticity rotating around the upper level low and moving back into N.VT from the north. These pulses should help to concentrate periods of heavier accumulating snow showers. NAM has this late in the day on Wednesday. Classic upslope QPF notch across N.VT seen in the models, indicative of meso-scale precipitation processes. GGEM ticks us towards over 0.5" of QPF which is impressive as on a higher res that would probably be higher in the upslope region (like 0.75") and less in the valleys. Overall the synoptics just look good for some sort of event to transpire in the upslope areas, so should be fun to see how this shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 i would think those highland areas thru walden and cabot (between 2k and 2.4k receive) 150-170 inches a year. Burke at 3k reports 220 a year , and if that is during operatiang months, then they probably see 250 easily. i'm gonna be in jackson, nh next 2 nites, so hopefully i can get into a bit of snow /frz precip on tue nite w/ the system and a decent secondary to pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It's too bad there aren't better numbers for seasonal averages right along the valley in our area. I would guess that LEB/Hanover average 75"ish, maybe 80" and even less as one goes north along the valley. I'll bet that Wells River/Woodsville are no more than 70". Long story short, we need some snow! Our coverage (GYX and BTV) isn't great for the valley for Coops with a complete record over a period of at least a decade. We've got 40 years of data from Lebanon and Hanover that indicate 69.7" average, with Lancaster being the next available site to the north (72" average). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah...for IZG. Drive back from Waterville Valley ok? Probably leaving around 4PM... anticipating rain showers, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Wind is coming from my preferred direction. Scored a 46mph last night before midnight and a 40mph at 2:35pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yes please .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW OR SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN SLEET LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Still gusty, 47 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Wind is coming from my preferred direction. Scored a 46mph last night before midnight and a 40mph at 2:35pm today. There's a Wunderground station here in town. It's not up and running all the time but it was last night/today. Looking at their wind readings, I see they had some mid/upper 40s to near 50mph last night. It was honkin' out there, no doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Upslope event looking good.... sign me up for this forecast. Zone forecast for Lamoille County... we like days and days of snow showers. Tuesday: Partly sunny in the morning...then cloudy with rain or snow likely in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds...becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.Tuesday Night: Snow likely until midnight...then snow showers likely after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Lows in the mid 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph until midnight...becoming light and variable. Chance of snow 70 percent.Wednesday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds around 10 mph.Wednesday Night: Snow showers likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows around 15. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.Thursday: Numerous snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs around 20. Chance of snow 70 percent.Thursday Night: Numerous snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Lows 10 to 15. Chance of snow 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It's too bad there aren't better numbers for seasonal averages right along the valley in our area. I would guess that LEB/Hanover average 75"ish, maybe 80" and even less as one goes north along the valley. I'll bet that Wells River/Woodsville are no more than 70". Long story short, we need some snow! We sure do need some snow!!! That is too bad there is such a large gap from Hanover to Lancaster for Coops. But I think you are right that the averages would go down from LEB/Hanover....although more snow shower activity north, LEB/Hanover def do better in most synoptic events especially coastal storms. On the bright side went for a skate with the kids on Lake Morey. After my hands were numb from tying skates and wondering what the hell I was thinking with the wind still a bit gusty on the Lake, it ended up being very pleasant out there and absolutely gorgeous ice. Due to time constraint didn't do the loop, but heard the trail was in great shape. This weekend the snowmobilers will be having there annual race out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I like when they mention the Jay Peak to Stowe areas in the AFD's .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION WL LIFT ACRSOUR NORTHERN CWA LATE WEDS INTO THURS AND BRIEFLY BCMS STATIONARYAS SYSTEM GOES VERTICAL STACKED FROM SFC THRU 5H. STILL SOMEUNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW QUICKLY MID/UPPER LVL MOISTUREADVECTS ON BACKSIDE AND POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW. BOTH GFS/ECMWFCONT TO SUPPORT FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ON THURS INTO THURSEVENING...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SFC TO 850 WINDS AT 20TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AND LLVL CAA. FROUDE NUMBERSON WEDS NIGHT/THURS AM ARE BTWN 1-2...WHICH SUPPORTS PRECIPFALLING NEAR THE SUMMIT AND LEE SIDE OF THE MTNS FROM JAY PEAK TOSTOWE. IN ADDITION...NOT ANTICIPATING HIGH SNOWFALL RATES...BUT ALONG DURATION EVENT LASTING 12 TO 24 HOURS...WITH PERIODS OFOCCASIONAL HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WHEN ADDITIONALENERGY ALOFT ROTATES ACRS OUR CWA. LOOKING AT TOTAL QPF BTWN 0.50 AND0.75" WITH SNOW TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR JAY PEAK BYFRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yes please.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THEUPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT..TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW OR SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN SLEETLIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONOF 3 TO 5 INCHES. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WINDSAROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AFTERMIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Forecast has 2-4 for S. Franklin in the midst of 5 other zones with 3-5. Probably no significant difference, and any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 On the bright side went for a skate with the kids on Lake Morey. After my hands were numb from tying skates and wondering what the hell I was thinking with the wind still a bit gusty on the Lake, it ended up being very pleasant out there and absolutely gorgeous ice. Due to time constraint didn't do the loop, but heard the trail was in great shape. This weekend the snowmobilers will be having there annual race out there. Nice man. Always good to get out regardless of what Ma' Nature throws at us. Hoping to get out for a skate on Wednesday when I have some time. Trail looks nice from the cam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Forecast has 2-4 for S. Franklin in the midst of 5 other zones with 3-5. Probably no significant difference, and any snow is good snow. Yeah, Hopefully we can cash on tomorrow night, Looks like this weekends gets squeezed out under us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah, Hopefully we can cash on tomorrow night, Looks like this weekends gets squeezed out under us I have more hope for the weekend than tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I have more hope for the weekend than tomorrow night. I have 0 hope for the weekend, You have a better chance then here, Good luck with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I have 0 hope for the weekend, You have a better chance then here, Good luck with it You have 0 hope for a day 5 southern streamer that already scrapes us on most modeling? I haven't looked too closely, but I think tomorrow night looks like garbage for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You have 0 hope for a day 5 southern streamer that already scrapes us on most modeling? I haven't looked too closely, but I think tomorrow night looks like garbage for both of us. It is garbage airmass for tomorow, But i doubt sat will get this far north, Scraper at best, Most modeling other then showing some inv trough crap i don't see me here getting flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It is garbage for tomorow, But i doubt sat will get this far north, Scraper at best, Most modeling other then showing some inv trough crap i don't see me here getting flakes Scraper is on the table, but there's room for this to go more north and deliver the goods to C VT/NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Scraper is on the table, but there's room for this to go more north and deliver the goods to C VT/NH/ME. Well, I hope there is, Right now suppression is my concern, Until i see more models tick this north, GFS is the most bullish, Not really the one i want on my side right now, But there is still time, I just don't feel it on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 MaineJayhawk needs to make a gif image of Jeff in a noose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 MaineJayhawk needs to make a gif image of Jeff in a noose. Or jumping into the pit. I'll just assume he's been inspired by the Rev's reverse psychology method of forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Or jumping into the pit. I'll just assume he's been inspired by the Rev's reverse psychology method of forecasting. He will probably get 40" in the next 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Or jumping into the pit. I'll just assume he's been inspired by the Rev's reverse psychology method of forecasting. I learned from the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 He will probably get 40" in the next 3 weeks. Can i lock it now......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Based purely on persistence and my natural pessimism, I lean towards Dryslot's thinking that it will probably miss NNE, or at the very least, my part of NNE. What is likely to happen is that it is too far east for me but nails NH and ME and then sets up a wicked NW flow that nails PF in Stowe with endless upslope while I'm still looking at the same crusty, icy 8 inches of snow. At this point, I'm just hoping for the cirrus to at least make it feel like there is an outside shot at a snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Nam looks like a sleet fest here tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Just a few hours away from the 2 year anniversary of the greatest cold front in NH history. My station all time max gust of 55mph was set at 2:03am, with a 10 minute average of 36mph.I was patiently waiting outside to welcome it and enjoy it and I owe thanks to CardinalWinds, whose post an hour before describing the front was the only reason I stayed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 UPDATE...LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY. A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LACK A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE ALOFT TO CAUSE MELTING PCPN AS IT FALLS. FOR THAT REASON HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE MIXED PCPN FROM THE FCST. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS CONSENSUS GROWS FOR LOW PRES FORMING AND TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. THIS MAY KEEP AT LEAST ERN PARTS OF NRN NH AND OXFORD COUNTY ME FROM WARMING TOO MUCH AND SEEING A MORE FROZEN SCENARIO. Looks like an inch or 2 here but east into ME could see 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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