powderfreak Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Jay's totals are always unreal. 51" in the last 7 days is crazy. Skiing must be surreal. Many folks who have been there lately have reported inflated snowfall amounts... apparently there is some serious concern with the cooperative observations coming out of Jay, too. They have still gotten the most snow and usually do, but the difference may not be as large as it might seem. The first part of that storm last week they reported a 26" storm total, and trusted sources said they traveled all around the mountain and never found anything more than like 18" (which just happens to be around the amount that Killington/Sugarbush/MRG/Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs all showed). There are certain situations where Jay gets more, but there are also situations when they should get the same or less than others, especially in synoptic events. To hear that the storm left around 18" made sense given that every other ski area in VT pretty much had that same amount in the synoptic portion of the storm, but they reported 26". Then on there was a night last week (Wednesday night maybe?) when Jay reported 15" overnight. One county south there was 3-4" both here at Stowe and Smugglers Notch. The same 3-4" fell at Sugarbush and MRG. The ski patroller who set-up the spots where I measure snow was skiing at Jay that morning and reported 8". Another friend who is a Jay local (and glass half-full optimist) said 8-10". So they certainly got more snow than areas to the south (which should be expected in those situations), but not by the margin that was advertised. Its really a shame because you can never really know just how much falls, but over the course of a season they definitely have the highest average snowfall. Which is why I'm surprised they really feel the need to jack it up or not go with a conservative measurement. My co-worker used to live and work at Jay, and said it was a big local joke that you take 25% off the snow report and get the actual value. And that actually makes sense because then they still get more snow than everyone else, but in a more believable amount, lol. Seasonal snowfall-to-date: Jay Peak...342" Smuggs...254" Stowe...263" Sugarbush...265 You be the judge, but given that this winter has sort of favored areas further south and east relative to normal, it is hard to believe that one county north of here with the same general geography (a near 4,000ft peak along the Spine of the Greens) has had 80-100 more inches of snowfall so far this season, especially considering the snowpacks are relatively similar between Mansfield and Jay. If you map it out, you'd assume this is a winter that has certainly favored those further north, but that hasn't really been the case outside of one upslope storm where up north picked up about 3 feet compared to the 12-18" here and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Anyway, I've recorded 32" in the past 7 days at the 3,000ft snow board... and this is what it looks like to ski through that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 A cold morning... 13F right now in town. Inverted though as its 21F at 1,500ft and 18F at 3,900ft. Nice sunrise here at the mountain... but a sweet view of it from BTV's airport cam: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 LOL at Jay. Is the coop person there associated with the mountain at all? Never been clear on that one. Maybe we should expect higher snowfalls at Burke now, since the Jay folks bought the place. Speaking of which, had a great afternoon at Burke yesterday. The snow was terrific and I was very surprised at how much powder was still to be found in the glades there, several days after the last snowfall. Chilly start here with a nice sunrise--14F. Speaking of Jay and that area--where's our friend Borderwx been I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 LOL at Jay. Is the coop person there associated with the mountain at all? Never been clear on that one. Maybe we should expect higher snowfalls at Burke now, since the Jay folks bought the place. Speaking of which, had a great afternoon at Burke yesterday. The snow was terrific and I was very surprised at how much powder was still to be found in the glades there, several days after the last snowfall. Chilly start here with a nice sunrise--14F. Speaking of Jay and that area--where's our friend Borderwx been I wonder? Yes, it is a staff member. I know someone who was an intern there (from the Lyndon State ski area management program) at Jay and one of his jobs was to check the high/low temperatures and stuff for the Co-Op. I've also heard it is measured by the Night Auditor of the hotel or was done that way. It is definitely someone affiliated with the resort. Its similar to me reporting to the NWS like I do, but again its why I take a lot of pictures to document. Often I attach at least a cell phone picture of the stakes or something giving a good indication of the new snow. Honestly my biggest fear is over-reporting snow... to the point that many think I can be too conservative at times. But I'd much rather have that, then some social media revolt over inflated snowfall totals. In general I've found the average skier over-estimates snowfall, and that's usually part of the problem. Skiers don't pay attention to the spots that are scoured clean by the wind. They are focusing on that side of the trail that has filled in deep...so you take that run and you are like, wow that was a ridiculous amount of snow! (Completely ignoring the fact that the other half of the trail was scoured down to only a couple inches). You don't know unless you actually physically measure it in a sheltered, controlled location. Just because you are skiing drifts to your thighs doesn't mean 25" fell overnight. I can find thigh deep drifts from 4 inches of snow and the right type of wind. Anyway.... I've been wondering about Borderwx too... haven't heard from him since early in the winter I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 A little different than last year. This year we are going in the right direction...up. What's a 50-inch difference in snowpack from year to year at this date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 So.....spring soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 So.....spring soon? Lots of t-shirts and shorts yesterday when it was 41F lol...50+ this weekend should bring them out for all. 42/25, typical March meh weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I think you're in the minority with this one, PF. Honestly my biggest fear is over-reporting snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Lots of t-shirts and shorts yesterday when it was 41F lol...50+ this weekend should bring them out for all. 42/25, typical March meh weather. A sunny 42F feels warmer this time of year than a breezy/dry 62F does in late August haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I think you're in the minority with this one, PF. I know a couple other snow reporters in the area and I trust them fully. Social media has made it so the fear is getting called out for over reporting. It is much different than snow reports in the 80s/90s where you could just make things up and no one can call you out on it. Now if its wrong, people know about it in minutes lol. There's a reason why Sugarbush/Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs all have about the same annual snowfall this season...and then there's really only one questionable place that's 100" higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Great discussion from TABER regarding this mid-week snow potential... .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...FCST CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDS AFT INTO WEDS NIGHT. I HAVE REVIEWED LAST WEEKENDS NON EVENT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND NNY...WHILE TRYING TO DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS UPCOMING POTENTIAL UPSLOPE EVENT. A COUPLE OF DIFFERENCES...THERMAL PROFILES ARE 2 TO 5C WARMER THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE IS MUCH DEEPER...ESPECIALLY AFT 18Z WEDS. AFTER REVIEWING SOME DATA WITH OUR SOO...WE BELIEVE OUR LOCAL BTV 4KM IS ONCE AGAIN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LLVL RH PROFILES AND THE ASSOCIATED QPF. SEEMS LATELY WITH THE CHANGE OF SEASONS...THIS MODEL IS STRUGGLING WITH LLVL RH...QPF... AND ASSOCIATED BL CONDITIONS. COMPARING BACK TRAJECTORIES FOR BOTH EVENTS...SHOW OUR AIRMASS IS COMING FROM THE FROZEN NORTH ATLANTIC AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE LLVL RH PROBLEMS IN THE MODELS. THE BTV 4KM WRF SHOWS QPF FROM 00Z WEDS THRU 00 THURS AROUND 1.0" AT JAY PEAK AND NEAR 1.25 ATOP MOUNT MANSFIELD...WITH NAM 12 AND GFS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.50. THINKING MOST OF THE QPF IS OVERDONE ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS MORNING...AS A RESULT OF TOO MUCH PROGGED LVLL RH. THE DEEPER RH THRU 700MB ARRIVES WITH S/W ENERGY BTWN 15Z AND 18Z WEDS. ALSO...UNLIKE LAST WKNDS NON EVENT...THE FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT...BECMS BLOCKED...HELPING TO HOLD THE UPSLOPE PRECIP ACRS THE MTNS...INSTEAD OF DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM. ALSO...THE SFC TO 800MB FLW IS LIGHTER...PREVENTING THE SNOWFALL FROM ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE LATE WEDS AFTN INTO WEDS NIGHT. BL TEMPS WL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY BELOW 1800 FT. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH LIMITED SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE THE MTNS AND BLW 1800 FT. THINKING 3 TO 6 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE BY THUR MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK. A 1 TO 4 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM HUNTINGTON TO WATERBURY TO UNDERHILL AND PARTS OF THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...A DUSTING TO AN INCH WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS WEDS NIGHT. WL ONCE AGAIN TRY TO SHOW A SHARP PRECIP/POP AND QPF GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS MESOSCALE EVENT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S MTNS TO UPPER 30S/L40S IN THE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Quick snow shower moved through dropped a quick coating on non paved surfaces just now. 33.1F -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Could we be looking at another powder day Thursday? I might make the trip up to jay with ruler in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Like that forecast I'll be at Sugarbush Wed-Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 Could we be looking at another powder day Thursday? I might make the trip up to jay with ruler in hand. It is Jay so take a yardstick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I'm guessing these are Co-op reports. Either way, they're obviously low. Jay Peak may report from the base, and mansfield from their coffee can on top. Food for thought: VT Snowfall: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/htmlfiles/vt/vt.sno.html Precip http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/htmlfiles/vt/vt.ppt.html Temp http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/htmlfiles/vt/vt.avg.html NH snowfall, for comparison http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/htmlfiles/nh/nh.sno.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Could we be looking at another powder day Thursday? I might make the trip up to jay with ruler in hand. Indeed, tomorrow into Thursday looks like the biggest snow potential this week – Mt. Mansfield point forecast for the upcoming days: Thus far I haven’t seen that any big accumulations are expected, but when it comes to the Greens you never know. The GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all show something on the WunderMap®, it probably just depends on whether the Greens make it go to town or not. I’m certainly ready for the next round of snow, but the weekend skiing was fantastic. I haven’t posted anything yet, but we’ve got full reports from Saturday at Bolton Valley and Sunday at Stowe; even down to the 2,000’ level at Bolton I was getting settled powder depths of around 22 inches above the subsurface in areas that hadn’t been visited since the recent snows. I’ve added in a few weekend pictures below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Awesome pics. Thx. Heading to jay tomorrow morning for a little excursion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 I'm heading up to Mt snow April 13-14, think they'll still have most terrain open? I haven't been up north all year unfortunately. Don't they usually shut down that time of year? Got 2 free tix and its the only time I can go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 I'm heading up to Mt snow April 13-14, think they'll still have most terrain open? I haven't been up north all year unfortunately. Don't they usually shut down that time of year? Got 2 free tix and its the only time I can go As far as I know most of the major ski areas are going at least through April 14 and a bunch through April 21 (at lest published scheduled close dates). We should see some late ones this year too. Though always important to note, there is no other industry where the fine print of "subject to change" should be emphasized as much as the ski industry lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 42F under full sun. We're already at the high for the day predicted by NWS, but we should be able to make mid-upper 40s I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 42F under full sun. We're already at the high for the day predicted by NWS, but we should be able to make mid-upper 40s I think. Without vegetation, I love watching the NWS and MOS bust low on highs this time of year. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Getting close to flipping the switch on a spring NNE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Without vegetation, I love watching the NWS and MOS bust low on highs this time of year. lol. Indeed, clouds moving in now so probably 46 or so for a high. 43.7/26 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 As far as I know most of the major ski areas are going at least through April 14 and a bunch through April 21 (at lest published scheduled close dates). We should see some late ones this year too. Though always important to note, there is no other industry where the fine print of "subject to change" should be emphasized as much as the ski industry lol. Haha, that is a good point. If the weather turns cold again as it looks like it might, I imagine it will be fine. Throw a few storms in and we have mid winter base depths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Mini graupel shower moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 very light snow just began 36.2F dp 30F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 37.5F -SHRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Rain showers 39, forgot there was even going to be any precipitation tonight as I've almost checked out in the wanting snow department. Interesting trajectory on the radar, too bad it wasn't cooler, as it "looks" pretty decent on the radar loop. Could've probably salvaged a 1-3" event out of it, had it been a few degrees lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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