NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV

[CT Rain]

Nothing like doing a piece in -60 wind chills.

 

Can't wait! Really want some sustained hurricane force winds... looks close. Should be pretty nasty no matter what lol

[klw]

This was my favorite part of the BTV AFD,

 

 

 

AS AN INTERESTING SIDE NOTE...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDINESSTO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST...A FEW AREAS ACROSS WESTERN VT INTO ERN NYWILL LIKELY SEE A GREAT SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE SETTING SUN WILLCAST A NICE GLOW ON THE HIGH OVERCAST. SO THOSE PHOTOGRAPHERSWANTING A NICE SUNSET SHOT...TAKE A PEEK OUTSIDE AROUND 5 TO 6 PMTHIS EVENING.

 

[OceanStWx]

Can't wait! Really want some sustained hurricane force winds... looks close. Should be pretty nasty no matter what lol

 

Just ran a quick update through tomorrow morning with some of the newer data, have 90 knots sustained up there around 12z tomorrow.

[klw]

We also had the December 27 event with a widespread 12-20" in BTV's CWA (and a string of events there over like a 3 week period when our snowpacks were up in the 15-24" range after the first week of January), but that might have been more snow in NW New England than CNE.

 

BTV which had like 34" all of last season, is at 61.1" and is +7" above normal to date.  BTV doesn't get upslope so for them to be above normal shows a decent synoptic presence in NW New England.   

 

Maybe there is an area from eastern VT into NH that is probably lower relative to normal than other areas?  I don't know, I just don't share the notion that its been *that* bad.  Not close to epic, but within a standard deviation of normal is respectable.  We've had consistent snow cover since December 16th, so I take that as a plus at this point for 8 straight weeks of not seeing the grass, lol.

 

Eastern Vt missed out on the heaviest stuff on the 27th.  

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/spotterReports/index.php

We got our 2nd heaviest snow of the season that day but it was only 6 inches.  Even after that stretch in Dec- Jan where it snowed 18-20 straight days we didn't have over 12 or 14 inches on the ground.  There has been little in the fluff storms coming this way- the overnight inch or two since the cold snap came in January.  

 

Is this really what it is supposed to look like in mid Feb

[mreaves]

No complaints here about the amount of snowfall, The only complaint i do have has been with the retention of it, We have not been able maintain a snow pack through out this winter which has hurt our local snowmobile club in town here, The storms that we had with snowfall with high water content were wiped out with the next storms being rain which would have made a great base, Then some of our bigger storms have been dry snow 15-20:1 ratio snows which has to low of a moisture content to build a base, The blizzard had a 2 fold problem, We had over 25" of snow, But, With high winds, The high areas and fields were wind blown bare, Then the temps last week were running 8-10 degrees above normal and we lost about 15" of the pack to melt, So we were back to bare ground again in, Todays was no help as well, Maybe Weds we get some help but its getting late here.

Exactly what I was thinking. It's not so much being screwed by storms as not being able to build a deep pack. I just took a 100 mile snowmobile ride through North-Central VT and there is a lot thin or bare spots, especially on exposed hills. Even at elevations around 2000' feet the snow depth looks to be about half of normal. I know we always have hope up here through most of March but time is running out for this winter.

[ctsnowstorm628]

LSC is a relative screw zone as well (per usual) but this year it's synoptically as well. We have 58" on the year but we got 7" on 12/27 and 9" on 2/8...the rest are 4" or less. Total buzz kill. I think we will get something in early March though. Current depth is 5" here at 1,050 feet...like 3" down in town.

[dendrite]

What's way over? I though that was low but I'm only in the low 40s.

I'm a hair over 50", but I'm not on my PC to give you the exact amount. So I'm not doing that poorly compared to climo...but the blizzard was the only event that brought warning criteria here IIRC. There's been a lot of 2-4" meh events.

[wxeyeNH]

Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I think you guys may catch up into early March.

It would seem to me that we would catch up in the early spring months, simply by climo.  I can't remember the last storm that gave me over a foot!

[OceanStWx]

I'm a hair over 50", but I'm not on my PC to give you the exact amount. So I'm not doing that poorly compared to climo...but the blizzard was the only event that brought warning criteria here IIRC. There's been a lot of 2-4" meh events.

 

You are correct. PWM managed to pick up 11.6" from 12/27, and eked out 6.7" for the 29th.

[eekuasepinniW]

43.75" for here.

[powderfreak]

Nothing like doing a piece in -60 wind chills.

 

Mansfield is getting pretty absurd now for 3,950ft elevation...  this afternoon we were seeing gusts nearing 80mph when the chairlifts went on wind-hold, but sustained at 70mph gusting over 90mph is intense.

 

[OceanStWx]

It would seem to me that we would catch up in the early spring months, simply by climo.  I can't remember the last storm that gave me over a foot!

 

Jan. 2011? Our Coop north of Meredith had 15.0".

[dryslot]

Exactly what I was thinking. It's not so much being screwed by storms as not being able to build a deep pack. I just took a 100 mile snowmobile ride through North-Central VT and there is a lot thin or bare spots, especially on exposed hills. Even at elevations around 2000' feet the snow depth looks to be about half of normal. I know we always have hope up here through most of March but time is running out for this winter.

 

 

I can still trailer to the Jackman area and ride until almost april, But its always better when you can leave from the door yard and save the fuel cost on trailering, Realistically, We probably have 3 weeks tops down this way if we can catch a break

[moneypitmike]

Exactly what I was thinking. It's not so much being screwed by storms as not being able to build a deep pack. I just took a 100 mile snowmobile ride through North-Central VT and there is a lot thin or bare spots, especially on exposed hills. Even at elevations around 2000' feet the snow depth looks to be about half of normal. I know we always have hope up here through most of March but time is running out for this winter.

 

As I drove down 91, I was shocked to see bare spots in northern VT.  Unusual to see the pack deepen the further south I went.  Much, much better look of things in the Whites.

 

I can still trailer to the Jackman area and ride until almost april, But its always better when you can leave from the door yard and save the fuel cost on trailering, Realistically, We probably have 3 weeks tops down this way if we can catch a break

 

I was actually thinking of you when I pulled into a gas station this morning and waited behind a 8 sleds to fill up.  They were having fun.

 

15.5/-2

[powderfreak]

As I drove down 91, I was shocked to see bare spots in northern VT.  Unusual to see the pack deepen the further south I went.  Much, much better look of things in the Whites.

 

 

I was actually thinking of you when I pulled into a gas station this morning and waited behind a 8 sleds to fill up.  They were having fun.

 

15.5/-2

 

91 is a general snow hole... the lowest elevation and drainage between the Greens and Whites.  Seems to get downsloped on both easterly flow and westerly flow.  Well I guess 91 is pretty much a snow hole all the way down into CT being in the valley between higher elevations on either side. 

[moneypitmike]

91 is a general snow hole... the lowest elevation and drainage between the Greens and Whites.  Seems to get downsloped on both easterly flow and westerly flow.  Well I guess 91 is pretty much a snow hole all the way down into CT being in the valley between higher elevations on either side. 

 

I know the valley is what it is.  But, still, bare ground patches in February is a shame for northern VT.  No comparison to your neck of the woods of course, but it really does go to show how crappy the pattern has been for NNE, much to the delight of Blizz, Phil, Bob, Jerry, Ginx...........

[powderfreak]

Man it is windy out there... I've been hearing the trees for the past hour and local stations are all gusting around 40mph at this point.  Just took the dog out, and that is a cold, cold wind.

 

1,500ft base of the ski resort is sustained at 41mph gusting near 50mph. 

[ApacheTrout]

You really feel that way?  I mean we are running maybe a tad below normal, but nothing unheard of.  SNE got the blizzard (still got around a foot up here, respectable) but before that ask the guys in eastern SNE how it was going.  Everyone was dry there for a long time prior to that.

 

We also had the December 27 event with a widespread 12-20" in BTV's CWA (and a string of events there over like a 3 week period when our snowpacks were up in the 15-24" range after the first week of January), but that might have been more snow in NW New England than CNE.

 

BTV which had like 34" all of last season, is at 61.1" and is +7" above normal to date.  BTV doesn't get upslope so for them to be above normal shows a decent synoptic presence in NW New England.   

 

Maybe there is an area from eastern VT into NH that is probably lower relative to normal than other areas?  I don't know, I just don't share the notion that its been *that* bad.  Not close to epic, but within a standard deviation of normal is respectable.  We've had consistent snow cover since December 16th, so I take that as a plus at this point for 8 straight weeks of not seeing the grass, lol.

You can add the southern Champlain Valley to the snow impoverished zone. Prior to the late December snows of 15 & 6 inches, there was a grand total of zip on the ground. The good snowpack melted the 2nd week of January, then a solid 6 came and disappeared the says ahead of Puxtahawney Phil. The blizzard last weekend produced only 5 inches (generously blown around), and now the brown clay is back. By my rough count, the Orwell area is at around 38 inches (including a few nickle & dime events), which makes BTV's total seem astonishingly good. It's the second tough winter in a row for us snow lovers (and snow plowers) in the lower Champlain Valley.

[dendrite]

Jan. 2011? Our Coop north of Meredith had 15.0".

What did they have for Oct '11?

[OceanStWx]

What did they have for Oct '11?

 

Looks like 11.5". Must have been just outside of the banding that set up over Concord.

[weatherMA]

00z GFS looks better for Tuesday night...3-4" for a good part of NNE....another Dendrite special 2-4 event.   

[J.Spin]

I logged on and found a couple of additional pages here, so this thread really exploded with activity today.  I see that there was more discussion about the state of the season, so I’ve updated my numbers.  Adding in today’s snowfall puts the season at 85.6% of average based on my data.  So it would certainly fall into the “below average” category right now based on Tony Crocker’s categorization (I think he goes with ± 10% on his website) but mean snowfall through today at this location is 111.4 ± 32.9”, so at 95.4” it’s still well within 1 S.D. (actually within ½ an S.D. at -0.49 S.D.).  Weeks like this (only 1.6” of snow in the past 8 days) definitely put us off the usual pace of snowfall and freshness on the lift-served slopes though, so it will be nice to see what the potential midweek event can do.

 

 

I thought today was brutal.  The mountain wind chills were -40F as we were -3F and gusting over 70mph (78mph was the high at the top of the lift), and I hit a point today where I was just done with that stuff.

 

 

The extra cold stuff is fun as far as an occasional novelty goes, but that’s about it for me.  It did look nasty out there today – I contemplated heading up for a quick tour at Bolton Valley, but when I saw that the Village temperature was at 3 F around midday I wasn’t all that inspired.  When I checked again in the afternoon and saw that it had dropped a degree to 2 F, that sort of sealed the deal, especially knowing that there was wind on top of that.  Yesterday was gorgeous though; temperatures were in the 20s F, there was some sun, and conditions in the Bolton BC were excellent.  We generally found 8-12 inches of powder above the subsurface in the 2,000’ – 3,000’ elevation range, with just a touch of some sun/melt crust on southern aspects and down near that 2,000’ elevation.  Snowpack is a bit low, but at least close to average with the Mt. Mansfield Stake near five feet.  I’m just noticing that those southern aspects down near 2,000’ in the Bolton area aren’t quite what they should be, but they’re certainly acceptable and offering decent turns.  I’ve added in a few of pictures from yesterday’s tour below, and the full report is at our website.

 

 

 

 

[DavisStraight]

Jspin, do you know what Boltons seasonal snowfall average is at 2000 feet?  I think thats roughly what the base is. Seems they get a lot of the stuff PFs always talking about, I would think 2-3 inches often enough will add up over a season in addition to some decent synoptic snows throughout the year.

[dendrite]

00z GFS looks better for Tuesday night...3-4" for a good part of NNE....another Dendrite special 2-4 event.   

I'll take the under.

[mahk_webstah]

I'll take the under.

Been a long time since we have jackpotted or had an over performer...we've become a bit of a screw zone this year.

[Allenson]

Holy smokes at the wind last night--house rattling.  I don't have an anemometer but I would guess that those were some of the stongest winds we've seen in the six years we've lived at this house.

 

As for a lack of snow around here, yeah we've been a little parched for snow here in eastern VT this winter.

 

I'm at 61" for the season which is probably a bit low for the date.  It seems like we're short one synoptic event and several meso events.

 

And yet I have 14" at the stake and we've had snow cover since mid-December.  Take away one of the two cutters that killed us in January and I'd likely have 20" otg, keeping all other things the same.

 

Not that I have the jackpot fetish that a few folks here seem to have, I'd hazard that this locale here consistently has one of the best snow depth to snowfall ratios on any given day in any given winter in New England.  It's amazing how little snow there is in some areas that reportedly get so much. 

 

But yeah, as for the 91 corridor and immediate CT valley between west-central NH and east-central VT which I know very well and travel through daily, they've probably only had in the neighborhood of 40-45" this year and were basically stipped bare during the two January cutters where we held onto a crusty half-foot or so....

[weatherMA]

8.1/-3 and still windy, fooking cold.

[J.Spin]

Jspin, do you know what Boltons seasonal snowfall average is at 2000 feet?  I think thats roughly what the base is. Seems they get a lot of the stuff PFs always talking about, I would think 2-3 inches often enough will add up over a season in addition to some decent synoptic snows throughout the year.

 

The summit snowfall (up around 3,100’) is the one quoted a lot, and that’s reported as 312”, but as for the average snowfall at 2,000’ (Bolton Valley Village) I have to estimate.  In a post in the “Best Snow Locations in SNE” thread, PF offered up 250” for people that live in the Village area (he’s got 4 or 5 coworkers that live there) and I’d certainly be on board with that.  My rough guess was going to be 200”+, but I could certainly buy 250” based on watching the daily summit/Village snow totals each day from the resort.  It’s also worth noting that the 312” number from Bolton Valley is typically just the snow that falls during their open season (which is a relatively short season from just early December through early April).  They may include some November snowfall if they have started tracking it as they ramp up for the season, but you know they are also getting some good snowfall in October/November/April, and even May, that isn’t getting reported.  PF may also talk with his colleagues that live there to get their perspective on the snowfall, so that would help in his estimation.

[powderfreak]

And yet I have 14" at the stake and we've had snow cover since mid-December.  Take away one of the two cutters that killed us in January and I'd likely have 20" otg, keeping all other things the same.

 

Not that I have the jackpot fetish that a few folks here seem to have, I'd hazard that this locale here consistently has one of the best snow depth to snowfall ratios on any given day in any given winter in New England.  It's amazing how little snow there is in some areas that reportedly get so much. 

 

You're area is phenomenal with snowpack retention.  You can see it every single year in the BTV daily climate maps for snow depths.  You'll see a week long stretch of snowfall in this area and along the Spine or west slopes, while your area is getting traces, but yet after the first thaw you're area has the most snow on the ground regardless of what happened a week ago.  This NW area around the mountains does get a ton of snowfall (snow that actually falls from the sky, lands on the ground, and gets measured) but no one makes any claims about how long it sticks around on the ground

 

 

We tend to hold snow decently on the east slope of the Spine here, but still nothing like further east into your area and NH during CAD situations.  I got down to like a crusty 4" after one of those thaws but that was the lowest it's gotten since mid-December when we started getting snow on the ground.

 

I think the most obvious area of large annual snowfall and low annual snow depth days is the western slopes of the Greens... like Underhill.  They can get 200 inches of snow in a year but melt out to bare ground 4 times during that same 200 inch winter.  Whereas if Allenson's area got 200 inches of snow, there'd be a 120-inch snowpack.  I know the Underhill CoCoRAHS station had 220" in 2010-2011 winter, but the snowpack never really got above 30", which is what Allenson's area has on the ground for two months in a 75 inch winter, lol.

[Hitman]

Yesterday was brutal. There have been few days in my life where i have shut it down early, but yesterday was one after my son pointed out whitening of flesh on my nose. That combined with "firm" surface conditions and lifts on wind hold, sapped me of any desire to go out again after lunch. I did find some good conditions in the woods especially at mid elevation where snow making efforts blew in.

What is with the wind this morning? Lincoln peak has a bunny lift from the base on windhold while the upper mtn lifts are ok. Weird.