Nittany88 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Champlain Valley down to Rutland- 4-8" Passumpsic/CT River Valleys- 6-8" Higher Elevations of the NEK- 8-12" with up to 14" in the Walden/Stannard Mtn area Valleys of Central/Southern VT- 6-10" Higher Elevations of Central/Southern VT- 10-17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Champlain Valley down to Rutland- 4-8" Passumpsic/CT River Valleys- 4-8" Higher Elevations of the NEK- 8-12" with up to 14" in the Walden/Stannard Mtn area Valleys of Central/Southern VT- 6-10" Higher Elevations of Central/Southern VT- 10-17" Yeah, basically what I have. Conservative, but reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah, basically what I have. Conservative, but reasonable. Is that through Wednesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah, basically what I have. Conservative, but reasonable. Is that through Wednesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Is that through Wednesday morning? Yes, not including upslope which will be confined to the summits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yes, not including upslope which will be confined to the summits. Thanks. That's what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yes, not including upslope which will be confined to the summits. Yeah 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah 12z Wed. Taber did seem a bit bullish the last two night shifts... I was a little surprised but he did explain his reasoning of banding and potential high ratio snowfall as the secondary gets going. I've been holding at a widespread 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Taber did seem a bit bullish the last two night shifts... I was a little surprised but he did explain his reasoning of banding and potential high ratio snowfall as the secondary gets going. I've been holding at a widespread 8-12". yeah, I have 9-13" for Stowe right now, but I think many eastern facing slopes will see 10-12". Lower elevations may be closer to 7-8". My enthusiasm has really gone down after these recent trends to have the secondary blossom later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Fwiw- just started snowing at pretty decent clip in midtown manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah, basically what I have. Conservative, but reasonable. I really don't think its all that conservative, but we really haven't seen any models with like widespread 1.25"+ amounts...there might have been a couple GGEM runs in there that were real bullish, but for the past two days the most basic indicator of QPF has generally been 0.6-1.25" state wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I really don't think its all that conservative, but we really haven't seen any models with like widespread 1.25"+ amounts...there might have been a couple GGEM runs in there that were real bullish, but for the past two days the most basic indicator of QPF has generally been 0.6-1.25" state wide. BTV updated. Still Higher than many people's thoughts. PS- Muccilli messaged me an unofficial map BTV made (cannot post here, sorry), and it's basically 4-7" west of the Greens, 6-9" in the Passumpsic Valley, 8-14" for the eastern slopes. If anything, that'll be their next update. They didn't feel comfortable enough issuing it this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yeah, I have 9-13" for Stowe right now, but I think many eastern facing slopes will see 10-12". Lower elevations may be closer to 7-8". My enthusiasm has really gone down after these recent trends to have the secondary blossom later. It always happens with secondaries... they'll always be further east or develop later in the flow for whatever reason, it seems, even with blocking like we have. Must be something in the models that rushes that stuff. Anyway, not too much has changed, IMO... some forecasts were just a little high from the beginning maybe? QPF on the WRF hasn't changed much...There's like up to another half inch QPF in some areas between 12z Wed and 00z Thur. Through 12z WED...a lot of spots are only 0.5-0.75" QPF by then... so maybe like 6-9" through Wed AM, with another 2-4" during the day Wed? Through 00z THUR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Copies of the latest BTV NWS maps – Winter Storm Warnings expanded a bit and as noted, accumulations were adjusted some as well - especially in some of the valleys: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The key will be tomorrow night... still bullish in the point and click with 6-10". I agree with 1-3" tonight, 3-5" tomorrow, but then I'd say like 2-4" for tomorrow night. Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -5. Breezy, with a southeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. High near 25. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a southeast wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 15. Wind chill values as low as zero. East wind 7 to 9 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Wednesday Snow showers likely, mainly after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Wind chill values as low as -1. West wind 8 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 18z NAM even weaker with the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 I assume this will play out as follows in this area: We over-perform tonight with the first thump (5 inches or so), there is a general lull during the day with another inch or so at the house and then a couple of inches tomorrow evening as part 2 under-performs. After all that we finish things off with one to two inches of upslope blowover to end with 9-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Agreed on the generally more conservative discussion you guys are having. First round will be pretty standard for around here and from there it all depends on the coastal pop. Tomorrow night is indeed the key time. Thinking 8-12" around here and even more specificially, 10-11". Storms like this often seem to like to leave right around that amount here. I've had lots of 10.Xs from events very similar to this over the years. After a several week hiatus, the plow is back on and ready to roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Strange winter... it seems like we've had lots of these big storms, but my overall rating is entirely "meh". I think the lack of a deep snowpack is to blame. This storm will bring me up to 77.5" if I get the low end of the range, which would be average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I assume this will play out as follows in this area: We over-perform tonight with the first thump (5 inches or so), there is a general lull during the day with another inch or so at the house and then a couple of inches tomorrow evening as part 2 under-performs. After all that we finish things off with one to two inches of upslope blowover to end with 9-10 inches. LOL... that is exactly what I've envisioned, too. We get to the afternoon in decent shape and then part II ends up being like 4 hours of 1/2" per hour snows before ending and then we get 2 more inches over like 10 hours into Wednesday morning to top it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 And the GFS just says that we are all wrong with the second event... that's some good snows tomorrow evening. Nice H7 UVVs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I really think this is going to be a 6-12" type of deal for C/NNE. I know the Euro has 1 to 1.25" for much of the area and the NWS has much of C/NNE in a 10-14" or even a 14-18" zone in eastern areas but my gut says this system is much more of a meh. The secondary is not going to bomb. The airmass is darn cold so maybe the ratios will not be that bad,even during the day tomorrow but I doubt we will see many totals over a foot. Im not a Met and hopefully I am wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Strange winter... it seems like we've had lots of these big storms, but my overall rating is entirely "meh". I think the lack of a deep snowpack is to blame. This storm will bring me up to 77.5" if I get the low end of the range, which would be average. StormTotalSnowFcst.png Upping the range for the CON area peeps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Final pre-snowflake call as of 1am 3/19: In Vermont-BTV: 5-9"Stowe: 9-13"Rutland: 4-8"Montpelier: 8-12"Newport: 7-11"LSC: 6-10"St. Johnsbury: 5-9"Peacham: 9-13"White River Junction: 7-11"Brattleboro: 7-11"In New Hampshire-Berlin: 8-12"Littleton: 4-8"North Conway: 14-18"Plymouth: 10-14"Concord: 10-14"Manchester: 11-15"Keene: 10-14"Portsmouth: 8-12"In Maine-Fryeburg: 15-19"Jackman: 8-12"Lewiston: 11-15"Portland: 9-13" Also, here's my try at a map, just for my own personal verification purposes. Hoping for upper ends of ranges like the RPM and UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Snow began here at 1:25am....moderate almost instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Event totals: 3.8” Snow/0.35” L.E. I looked out around 5:30 A.M. and estimated 3-4” of snow on the snowboard, and that was in the ballpark because at 6:00 A.M. CoCoRaHS observations time the depth was at 3.8”. I could tell immediately from my cores that this stuff was fairly dense, and indeed it came in at a synoptic-style 9.2% H2O. There was actually some graupel in among the flakes falling at the time, and I’d describe the snowfall rate as somewhere in the ½ to 1 inch per hour range, so it went down as snow, but not heavy snow. As of 6:30 A.M. there’s another 0.3” on the board, and the rate of snowfall has definitely slowed down since the earlier observations. There’s no change that I can see in the BTV weather advisories map relative to the last version, but on the storm total snow forecast map they’ve got a more general 10-14” for the mountain areas in the northern half of Vermont, with any spots of 14-18” pushed to the south. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below: New Snow: 3.8 inches New Liquid: 0.35 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.9 Snow Density: 9.2% H2O Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Snow/Graupel (2-6 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Quick, rough measurement out the back door was 2 3/4 inches overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I looked at the early reports of accumulations for the Vermont ski areas – a few resorts have yet to report in, but it looks like numbers are currently topping out in the 6” range up north, and the 8-9” range down south where things started up a bit quicker. North to south listing is below: Jay Peak: 6” Burke: 5” Smuggler’s Notch: 2” Stowe: 4” Bolton Valley: 6” Mad River Glen: 6” Sugarbush: 4” Bromley: 8” Stratton: 8” Mount Snow: 9” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 As of 7am: 4.2" 0.35" of water. 25F & light snow falling. For once, I'll be home all day for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I took a 7:00 A.M reading off the snowboard and there was 0.5” down, so snowfall is right around that ½”/hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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