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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV

klw

By klw,
in New England

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Hitman

Hitman

Posted
Posted 
WITH WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRYSHIFTING TO THE N-NW. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AMPLE TO PRODUCESNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THEDAY INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE BEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR SNOWSHOWERS...ESP COMBINED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF NW FLOW LATE TODAY INTOTHE OVERNIGHT.

Upslope potential?

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
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I’ve finally had a chance to check out some of the mountain storm totals for here in Vermont – the north to south listing is below.  The Killington/Pico area has done quite well so far, with the Southern Vermont Ski Areas falling in closely behind, and amounts much more variable up north:

 

Jay Peak: 12”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 10”

Bolton Valley: 8”

Mad River Glen: 13”

Sugarbush: 12”

Middlebury: 10”

Suicide Six: 6”

Pico: 18”

Killington: 18”

Okemo: 14”

Bromley: 13”

Magic Mountain: 14”

Stratton: 14”

Mount Snow: 14”

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

What a beautiful snowfall in the mountains...definitely one of the more picturesque snowfalls we've had in a while.  The skiing was decent, but it was wet, heavy snow, so great for the base.  It was almost better to just wander through the woods and enjoy the wintery scenes than actually skiing the stuff, haha.

 

 

 

 

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

we needed the base, more at sb than at stowe, but still.  I'm hoping before I get to hit it on saturday morning, there is some champlain powder to ice the cake.

 

I'm not sure if anyone noticed it, but the GFS has a pretty big multi-day upslope event progged from like Saturday until Tuesday.

 

This is surprising me because I haven't paid much attention to it, but holy sh*t this could be a solid event.  Waves and waves of moisture retrograding down from the maritimes on NW flow.  Looks like two periods of enhanced activity, like Sunday and again later Monday into Tuesday.

 

Look at this total QPF over 4 days which has the classic upslope signature to it:

 

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Allenson

Allenson

Posted
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^ I've been seeing that signal on things myself but was too busy watching this last event to give it much thought till now.

 

But yeah, looks pretty good. Over here retrograde stuff doesn't really add up much in my experience but the nothern Greens should be able to cash in some.

 

It's going to be white around the high terrain for a while to come now.

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sgottmann

sgottmann

Posted
Posted

Latest from BTV looks promising;

 

AS OF 308 PM EST THURSDAY...NO REAL BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US
THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT
500-850MB OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP PLENTY OF LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2500 FEET LIKELY PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 6-12" OF SNOW FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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This looks promising for a zone forecast... lots of "light accumulations."

 

 

Friday: Cloudy. Snow showers likely...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds...becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Friday Night: Snow showers likely. Additional snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Lows in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Saturday: Snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Sunday: Snow showers likely. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Highs around 30. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Sunday Night And Monday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 20. Highs around 30.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 15 to 20.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid 30s.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

NWS has another 5-11 inches on the mountain prior to Saturday evening, with like 3 more days of snow following that.

 

 

Friday: Snow showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

Friday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Saturday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 26. North wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Saturday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. North wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

 

Sunday Snow showers likely, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 24. North wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

So I've come to the conclusion that if it's 3/1 tomorrow, and snowfall chances remain limited to higher terrain while lower elevations get 37F and flurries/drizzle, I'm officially ready for spring. You heard it here first, folks.

 

I think 47F and sunny in CT may have something to do with it ;)

 

lol... yeah this was definitely a spring storm.  Wet, non-accumulating snow pretty much all day yesterday (which is essentially white rain) down here in the village, while it dumped up at the mountain.  Once the sun went down we picked up about 2.5", but yeah, I sort of hear ya.  I want it to keep snowing on the mountain for a few more weeks to ensure a nice long snowpack to carry into the spring ;)

 

But I also wouldn't argue with a few sunny days in the 40s if they were to show up down the line somewhere.  Great for spring skiing and partying in the parking lot ;)

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
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lol... yeah this was definitely a spring storm.  Wet, non-accumulating snow pretty much all day yesterday (which is essentially white rain) down here in the village, while it dumped up at the mountain.  Once the sun went down we picked up about 1.5", but yeah, I sort of hear ya.  I want it to keep snowing on the mountain for a few more weeks to ensure a nice long snowpack to carry into the spring ;)

 

But I also wouldn't argue with a few sunny days in the 40s if they were to show up down the line somewhere.  Great for spring skiing and partying in the parking lot ;)

Trust me, I hear that. I'm rooting for the higher elevations/ski areas that got skunked last season around this time. But, since I'm not in that business, 40s-50s can gladly show up any week now, lol. 

 

Like, last night it was 45F and me and my buddies had a bonfire because it was so warm (and relatively humid after the rain) and just drank beer. I'm ready for times where I can go outside and not freeze my balls off haha 

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ApacheTrout

ApacheTrout

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lol... yeah this was definitely a spring storm.  Wet, non-accumulating snow pretty much all day yesterday (which is essentially white rain) down here in the village, while it dumped up at the mountain.  Once the sun went down we picked up about 1.5", but yeah, I sort of hear ya.  I want it to keep snowing on the mountain for a few more weeks to ensure a nice long snowpack to carry into the spring ;)

 

But I also wouldn't argue with a few sunny days in the 40s if they were to show up down the line somewhere.  Great for spring skiing and partying in the parking lot ;)

Not only a spring storm, but a mid-April storm.  I've seen several systems like this affect Vermont in between April 15 and April 20th over the past 9 years.  These were colder than normal for that time period, but this one has been much warmer than normal for late February.

 

Taking a look at the preliminary monthly climo data for BTV, you can see a switch was flipped on February 11.  From the Feb 1st through the 10th, BTV was -5.6F against normal.  But since then, BTV's been +6.8F against normal.  The cardinals and chicadees have noticed and are singing up a storm, as the first fights for mating rights are breaking out in the cedars and the gray dogwood.

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klw

klw

Posted
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So I've come to the conclusion that if it's 3/1 tomorrow, and snowfall chances remain limited to higher terrain while lower elevations get 37F and flurries/drizzle, I'm officially ready for spring. You heard it here first, folks.

 

I think 47F and sunny in CT may have something to do with it ;)

It hit 44.3 here in St. J and it was like instant mud season on some of the dirt roads.

 

I forget- at 47F are you still wearing a parka?  ^_^

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Hitman

Hitman

Posted
Posted

Days and days of snow and u guys are talking about spring. If u want mud season, come down to The coast. I'll trade places with you in a heartbeat. For me, I got some work to do in the woods. Not ready for soft bumps yet.

Thinking of demo-ing some skis on Saturday since this is my 4th season (170-180 days) on my current boards and they are nearing the end.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
Posted

Days and days of snow and u guys are talking about spring. If u want mud season, come down to The coast. I'll trade places with you in a heartbeat. For me, I got some work to do in the woods. Not ready for soft bumps yet.

Thinking of demo-ing some skis on Saturday since this is my 4th season (170-180 days) on my current boards and they are nearing the end.

I'm at the coast until Sunday ;) then, meteorology calls...

In all honestly, I'm all for another 3/7/11 type event. If not, give me 60F

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CardinalWinds

CardinalWinds

Posted
Posted

I'm up for one more good dumping. Dry powder, please. I hate heavy wet snow. So does my snowblower. If not, let's move along. My two cats live on the huge screened-in porch I have when it's warm enough, and I can tell the moody one has has his fill of being inside and the lack of sunshine lately.

 

The sun angle now is what kills my love of winter weather come March. Give me a snowy November over a snowy March any day.

 

I do hate the summer heat waves though. Anything above 80° and I start to get uncomfortable. I handle cold much better than the heat. Hate summer heat waves more than dead ratter winters.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Froude Numbers are super low for most of this weekend.

 

Yeah I brought this up in another thread that these retrograde systems tend to be very blocked and to me it looks like a BTV or eastern CPV special.  Especially with CPV convergence and a veering profile with height...from a more easterly component at H7 turning to NNW at the surface in the CPV.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

To that point of blocked flow, you can see the WRF how it has 0.25-0.5" QPF in the Champlain Valley, while east of the mountains here in the RT 100 corridor its only around a tenth from Waitsfield/Warren north through Waterbury, Stowe, Morrisville.

 

Mansfield still seems to get smoked as usual, lol.

 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

I think PWM had it's 3rd snowiest Feb at ~40". Compared to your 1500' accum, PWm's total isn't that bad for a coastal area. Of course the blizzard really helped.

I think they finished with 49.5", 3rd and barely behind 1893, but about a foot short of 1969.

 

33.1" for Feb at my place, 6th of 15 Februarys to reach 30" and raising the month avg to 21.6".  (13 such months in 15 yr here. No other month has more than 3, and Jan has none.)  Feb temps averaged 2F above my avg, with the maxima -1.3 and minima +5.5.  Total precip was 3.53", about 20% above avg.

High temp was 41, on two days, and the low was -6 on the 5th.  This was my 1st Feb here that failed to get down to at least -10.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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I think PWM had it's 3rd snowiest Feb at ~40". Compared to your 1500' accum, PWm's total isn't that bad for a coastal area. Of course the blizzard really helped.

Oh yeah we didn't have anything noteworthy up here in Feb and by my records we were pretty much average this month. It felt snowy though after a near record low January.

The coastal sections and SNE certainly cleaned up this month with the big departures relative to normal. But I guess 20-30+ inch storms will do that lol.

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Allenson

Allenson

Posted
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Finnished February with a solid but somewhat garden variety 28.2" edging out December's 27.6" as the snowiest month so far this winter.

 

I just realized while looking at my Feb numbers that it didn't really rain here at all this past month.  Every day that I have entries in the precip column, I also have entries in the snowfall column.  We did have some freezing drizzle at the end of the 2/23-24 event but other than that, I can't recall any actual rain.  Noteworthy at least. ;)

 

Stiff northerly here today with steely gray skies and an occasional weenie flake or two drifting by.  We've actually dropped a tick since daybreak.  Now sitting at 30F.

 

The breeze is chilly but feels good--nice to sweep out that rotting puke that was around yesterday.

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